Earth’s temperatures will exceed a key point of danger unless greenhouse gas emissions fall faster than the countries pledged, the world’s top climate scientist said on Monday, warning of the consequences of inaction but also noting encouraging signs of progress.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveals “litanies of broken climate promises” by governments and corporations, accusing them of fueling global warming by sticking to harmful fossil fuels.
“It’s a file of shame that catalogs empty promises that put us firmly on the path to a world that cannot be lived,” he said.
What the countries have agreed to do on climate change
Governments have agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) this century, ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). Yet temperatures have already risen by more than 1.1 C (2 F) since pre-industrial times, leading to a measurable increase in disasters such as flash floods, prolonged droughts, more intense hurricanes and longer burning forest fires, exposing human lives in danger and costing governments hundreds of billions of dollars to deal with.
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“Estimated global emissions from [national pledges] put a limit on global warming to 1.5 C out of range and make it harder to limit warming to 2 C after 2030, ”the panel said.
Without immediate and profound emission reductions in all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C is unattainable.
In the new report pic.twitter.com/z7XHUrVgG4
– @ UNEP
In other words, the co-chair of the report, James Schia of Imperial College London, told the Associated Press: “If we continue to act as we do now, we will not even limit warming to 2 degrees, let alone 1.5 degrees. “
Carbon cuts, removals required to remain below the 1,5 C limit
Ongoing investments in fossil fuel infrastructure and the clearing of large areas of agricultural forest are undermining the huge emission limits needed to achieve the Paris goal, the report said.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is pictured in a March 14, 2022 photo. “. (Andrew Kelly / Reuters)
“To keep the 1.5-degree limit agreed in Paris within range, we need to reduce global emissions by 45 percent over this decade,” said Guterres, the UN chief. “But current climate promises would mean a 14% increase in emissions.”
In a summary agreed with governments over the past two weeks, the commission concluded that returning warming to 1.5 C by 2100 would require removing huge amounts of carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – from the atmosphere. Many experts say this is not feasible with current technology, and even if it could be done, it would be much more expensive than preventing emissions in the first place.
Heating of the track for 2.4 C to 3.5 C up to 2100 g
The report’s authors said they had “high confidence” that if countries did not step up their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet would average 2.4 C to 3.5 C (4.3 to 6.3 F). ) warmer by the end of the century – level experts say it will certainly cause severe consequences for much of the world’s population.
“We are on track for global warming with more than twice the 1.5-degree limit agreed in Paris,” Guterres said. “Some government and business leaders say one thing but do another.”
“Simply put, they are lying,” he added. “And the results will be disastrous.”
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Which countries have emitted the most carbon
Despite the harsh words of Guterres and the co-chairs of the report, the full, thousands-page report, summarized by governments and scholars, does not blame individual countries.
Construction of the Trans Mountain Pipeline is underway in Kamloops, British Columbia, on September 1, 2020. Ongoing investments in fossil fuel infrastructure are undermining the huge emission limits needed to achieve the Paris goal, the new IPCC report found. (Jonathan Hayward / Canadian Press)
However, figures show that much of the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere was released by rich countries, which were the first to burn coal, oil and gas when the Industrial Revolution really began in the 1850s.
The UN panel said about 40 per cent of the emissions have since come from Europe and North America. Just over 12 percent can be attributed to East Asia, which includes China. The country took the position of the world’s leading source of emissions from the United States in the mid-2000s.
Possible solutions bring hope
However, the report is not without hope.
Its authors emphasize the myriad ways in which the world can be put back on track to 2 C or even, with great effort, return to 1.5 C after crossing this threshold. This may require measures such as removing CO2 from the atmosphere by natural or artificial means, but also potentially risky technologies such as pumping aerosols into the sky to reflect sunlight.
Recommended solutions include a rapid shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy such as solar and wind, electrification of transport, more efficient use of resources and massive financial support for poor countries that cannot pay for such measures without aid.
One move, often described as “low-hanging fruit” by scientists, is to plug methane leaks from mines, wells and landfills, which release powerful but short-lived greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. The pact between the United States and China at last year’s UN climate conference in Glasgow aims to do just that.
The solar panels were installed at a floating photovoltaic plant on a lake in Haltern, Germany, on April 1, 2022. The IPCC report recommends a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy such as solar and wind energy. (Martin Meissner / Associated Press)
“You can see the first signs that the actions that people are taking are starting to change things,” said Skea, co-chair of the commission.
“The big message we have (is) that human activities have gotten us into this problem, and human agency can actually get us out of it again,” he said.
The panel’s reports have become more candid since the publication of the first in 1990, and the last may be the last before the planet goes through 1.5 C warming, Skea told the AP.
Last August, he said human-induced climate change was an “established fact” and warned that some of the effects of global warming were now inevitable. In late February, the panel published a report outlining how further rising temperatures would increase the risk of floods, storms, droughts and heat waves worldwide.
The report may be overly optimistic about the global carbon budget
However, former British chief scientific adviser David King, who was not involved in writing the report, said he was optimistic about how much CO2 the world could afford to emit.
The UN panel estimates that there is still a “carbon budget” of 500 billion tonnes that can be emitted before reaching the 1.5 C threshold.
“In fact, we have no carbon left to burn,” said King, who now chairs the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.
“It’s just the opposite. We’ve already done too much to get greenhouse gases in there,” he said, noting that IPCC calculations miss new risks and potentially self-reinforcing effects that are already happening in some places, such as increased heat uptake. in the oceans from the loss of sea ice and the release of methane in the melting of permafrost, he said.
Similar warnings were echoed by UN chief Guterres, citing scientists’ warnings that the planet was moving “dangerously close to turning points that could lead to cascading and irreversible effects on the climate.”
“But high-emission governments and corporations are not just turning a blind eye, they are adding fuel to the flames,” he said, calling for an end to further coal, oil and gas production, which the report said could be abandoned. or else, resulting in trillions of dollars in losses.
“Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness,” Guterres said.
Vulnerable nations said the report shows that major polluters need to step up their efforts.
“We are looking at the G20, the world’s largest emitter, to set ambitious targets before COP27 and to achieve those goals – by investing in renewable energy, ending subsidies on coal and fossil fuels,” said Tina Stege. climate envoy to the Marshall Islands. “It is long overdue for us to keep our promises.”
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