World News

COVID-19 cases are on the rise again in the United States

Laura Ungar, Associated Press Published Friday, April 15, 2022, 11:25 AM EDT Last Updated on Friday, April 15, 2022, 11:25 AM EDT

Once again, the United States is embarking on something that could be another jump in COVID-19, with cases increasing nationally and in most states after a two-month decline.

A big unknown? “We don’t know how high this mountain will grow,” said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.

No one expects a peak, almost as high as the last, when the contagious omicron version of the coronavirus tore apart the population.

But experts warn that the impending wave – caused by a mutant called BA.2, which is thought to be about 30% more contagious – will cover the entire nation. They are worried that hospitalizations, which are already increasing in some parts of the northeast, will increase in a growing number of states in the coming weeks. And the wave of cases will be bigger than it looks, they say, because the numbers reported are hugely understated as more people do tests at home without reporting infections or skipping tests at all.

At the height of the previous omicron jump, the reported daily cases reached hundreds of thousands. As of Thursday, the seven-day moving average for daily new cases rose to 39,521, from 30,724 two weeks earlier, according to data from John Hopkins, collected by the Associated Press.

Dr Eric Topol, head of the Translational Institute Scripps Research, said the numbers were likely to continue to rise until the jump reached about a quarter of the height of the latter’s “monster”. BA.2 could have the same effect in the United States as it did in Israel, where it created an “emphasis” on the case chart, he said.

Keeping the jump somewhat under control, experts said, is a higher level of immunity in the United States from vaccination or past infections than at the beginning of winter.

But Ray said the United States may look like Europe, where the BA.2 jump is “significant” in some places with comparable levels of immunity. “We could have a significant leap here,” he said.

Both experts said BA.2 would move gradually across the country. The Northeast has been hit hardest so far – with more than 90% of new infections caused by BA.2 last week, compared to 86% nationally. As of Thursday, the highest levels of new COVID per capita cases in the past 14 days were in Vermont, Rhode Island, Alaska, New York and Massachusetts. In Washington, D.C., which is also in the top 10 in terms of new cases, Howard University announced that it was moving most undergraduate classes online for the rest of the semester due to a “significant increase in COVID-19 positivity” in the field and territory. of college.

According to data from John Hopkins in some states, such as Rhode Island and New Hampshire, the average daily number of new cases increases by more than 100% in two weeks.

In New Hampshire, the increase comes two weeks after the closure of all 11 state-run vaccination sites, and the governor has been pressured by some defenders to reverse the course.

Joseph Wendelken, a spokesman for the Rhode Island Department of Health, said the most targeted indicators at the moment were hospitalizations, which remained relatively low. About 55 patients with COVID-19 were hospitalized, compared to more than 600 at one time after the pandemic.

Officials credit the high vaccination rate. State statistics show that 99% of adults in Rhode Island are at least partially vaccinated and 48% have received a booster dose, which scientists say is key to protecting against severe omicron disease.

Vermont also has relatively high levels of vaccination and fewer patients in the hospital than during the first omicron wave height. But Dr Mark Levine, health commissioner there, said hospitalizations and the number of patients in intensive care units were increasing slightly, although deaths had not increased.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that new hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have increased slightly in New England and the New York region.

On the West Coast, modelers at the University of Oregon Health and Science predict a slight increase in hospitalizations over the next two months in the state, where cases have also risen sharply.

As the tide spreads across the country, experts said states with low vaccination rates could face significantly more infections and severe cases that end up in hospital.

Ray said government leaders need to be careful to get the right tone when talking to people to protect themselves and others after COVID’s restrictions have been largely lifted. Philadelphia recently became the first major city in the United States to renew its mandate for an indoor mask after a sharp increase in infections. But Vermont’s Levine said there were no plans to return to the restrictions imposed earlier in the pandemic.

“It will be difficult to impose restrictive, draconian measures,” Ray said. “Fortunately, we have some tools we can use to mitigate the risk. So I hope that the leaders will emphasize the importance of people keeping track of the numbers. “

Lynn Richmond, a 59-year-old breast cancer survivor living in Silver Spring, Maryland, said she plans to get her second booster and continue wearing her mask in public as cases increase in her state and nearby Washington. District of Columbia

“I’ve never really stopped wearing my mask … I’ve been extremely vigilant,” she said. “I feel like I’ve come this far; I don’t want to get COVID. “

At the New Hampshire Veterans Home with 250 beds in Tilton, staff still wear masks and observe social distancing. Veterans are allowed limited excursions to places such as a museum of antique racing cars and restaurants, where they can have a separate room and staff are disguised.

Vigilance is a good strategy, experts said, as the coronavirus constantly throws crooked balls. One of the most recent: even more contagious sub-variants of BA.2, found in New York State, known as BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1. And scientists warn that new and potentially dangerous options could emerge at any time.

“We should not think that the pandemic is over,” Topol said. “We still have to be vigilant.”

Associated Press reporters Wilson Ring of Stowe, Vermont and Holly Rammer and Katie McCormack of Concord, New Hampshire contributed to this report.