The New Brunswick government predicted in February that the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations would drop to almost zero by this weekend.
Instead, the province registered 10 more COVID-related deaths from April 3 to 9 and 192 people were hospitalized, 20 in need of intensive care, according to data released Tuesday by health networks Horizon and Vitalité.
Public health reported only 79 people in hospital, including 13 in the intensive care unit on its new COVIDWATCH website.
But these are only people hospitalized for COVID, not people who were initially admitted to hospital for another reason and later tested positive for the virus.
Data from regional health authorities include both, such as the province used on its previous COVID-19 dashboard.
On 9 February, the province submitted COVID hospitalization forecasts if the province moved to level 1 of the COVID-19 winter plan from level 2.
He showed that passing level 1 on February 11 could lead to a peak of 300 people in hospital. It does not distinguish between COVIDs or COVIDs.
The February 9 graph, where the pink line illustrates the steep jump in hospitalizations expected to trigger a move to level 1 on February 11, while the yellow line illustrates the wait for the restrictions to be relaxed by February 18, is not intended to calculate impacts after removing all restrictions on COVID on March 14, the Ministry of Health announced. (Government of New Brunswick)
If the province waited until Feb. 18, hospitalizations would “increase moderately and then stabilize,” said Dr. Jennifer Russell, chief health doctor, at the time. The graph shows that it is projected to be around 190 between the end of February and the beginning of March, before declining again to zero or close to zero by 16 April.
“The height and time of the predicted peaks in hospitalizations [are] subject to considerable uncertainty in modeling “, the graph notes.
Health Ministry spokesman Bruce McFarlane said the chart was “used to compare two dates and the corresponding cases for each to illustrate the best time to move the province to level 1.”
“The aim of the exercise was to convey the impact of changing measures over a period of time,” he said in an e-mail statement.
The estimates are “not intended to calculate impacts following the removal of population-level controls at a later date”.
The Ministry of Health said earlier that blows should have been expected in future cases, but the volume of COVID hospitalized cases is expected to stabilize in hospitals across the province. – Bruce McFarlane, spokesman for the department
New Brunswick lifted all restrictions on COVID-19, such as camouflage, mandatory isolation for positive cases, physical distancing, and March 14 collection restrictions.
“However, the Ministry of Health said earlier that blows should have been expected in the future, but the volume of COVID hospitalized cases is expected to stabilize in hospitals across the province,” McFarlane said.
He did not provide a schedule and the department ignored all requests from the CBC in the last month to launch new models for hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit or death.
Last month, a former department spokesman sent the CBC the same level 1 forecast schedule presented on February 9, but under a new title, Predicted Peaks in Hospitalizations.
When the CBC pressured the Ministry of Health last month on the model the government is relying on to decide on February 24 to remove all restrictions on COVID-19, a spokesman did not clarify, but re-released the February 9 schedule with a new title. (Government of New Brunswick)
He described in detail “the landscape and expected trajectories of COVID-19,” said Gail Harding.
The modeling “expects approximately 100 hospitalizations on average by mid-March, which was confirmed,” she said.
“Modeling is one of many factors used to determine whether restrictions are necessary or can be removed,” McFarlane said Thursday.
“The province is constantly monitoring and monitoring COVID-19. If the models are shared, they will be publicly available. “
In addition to deaths and hospitalizations, 7,734 new COVID cases were reported last week. This includes 3,962 people who tested positive through PCR laboratory tests and 3,772 people who said they tested positive in rapid tests.
Based on PCR tests alone, there are now 5,721 active cases across the province.
New Brunswick now faces the threat of a sixth wave, which could be fueled by a new Omicron sub-variant called Omicron XE, which is a combination of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. It is 10 percent more transmissible than BA2, which is 60 percent more transmissible than BA1, according to the chief medical officer.
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