Two photos taken during the crisis in Ukraine seem to sum up the relative positions of Russia and the Western alliance. The first is Vladimir Putin’s long-known table, his physical distance from visiting leaders, symbolizing Russia’s isolation. The second image is of Joe Biden in the middle of a group of NATO leaders – with the US president surrounded by friends and allies.
Amid the horrors of the war in Ukraine, some in the United States and Europe have noticed a silver line in the revival of the Western alliance. Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, captured the new mood in a recent article co-authored with James Lindsay entitled “Why Putin Underestimates the West.”
The speed, strength and unity of the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine surprised the Kremlin, as admitted by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. It may even have surprised Western leaders.
Within days of the invasion, much of Russia’s central bank assets were frozen. Sanctions have been hit by a number of Russian financial institutions and oligarchs. European airspace has been closed to Russian airlines. Technology exports to Russia have been limited. Russia was expelled from the World Cup. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany has been shut down and Berlin has announced a historic increase in military spending. And Western countries have agreed to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, with the EU making its first move to direct military aid.
The leaders of the G7 countries line up after a meeting in Brussels in March. The United States and European allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia, have joined sanctions efforts against Russia © Henry Nichols / Getty Images
These answers were not just one-off. New sanctions or confiscations of Russian assets continue to be announced. It seems that the Western alliance will also expand with Finland and, probably, Sweden will apply to join NATO. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, justified in part in response to NATO enlargement, has in fact provoked further NATO enlargement.
Previous international crises – such as the war in Iraq or Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008 – have either split the Western alliance or caught it unprepared. In contrast, as Margaret Macmillan, the eminent historian, points out, this time “the West seemed prepared and had in fact considered how it would react.”
The chaotic withdrawal of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 fit in perfectly with the narratives heavily popularized in Moscow and Beijing about American isolationism and Western decline. But the strength of the US-led response to Ukraine has helped challenge these ideas – and given hearts to believers in the Atlantic Alliance.
Afghans in Kabul are struggling to flee in 2021. The chaotic Allied withdrawal corresponds to the narratives of Western decline, but Ukraine’s response has challenged that © Akhter Gulfam / EPA / Shutterstock
Norbert Rötgen, a German lawmaker who until recently chaired the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said: “America’s central importance to European security has been reaffirmed. Europeans are more aware of the importance of the American alliance. Americans are reminded of the importance of Europe. “
It also became clear that “the West” as a geopolitical concept is no longer defined by geography. US allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia, have joined efforts to sanction Russia. It is the same with Switzerland, a neutral country and an important international financial center. U.S. officials felt more reassured about imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, knowing that the world’s other major financial centers were acting in concert with Washington. Efforts by Russia and China to diversify their assets away from the dollar are much more difficult if the main alternative currencies – the euro, the yen, the pound and the Swiss franc – are also banned.
But while there is undoubted satisfaction in Washington and Brussels with the strength and unity of the Western response, even optimists are well aware that Western unity can be fragile and fleeting.
Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron in Moscow in February. Tensions over the EU’s stance on Russia are growing as the Polish prime minister criticizes the French president for numerous telephone conversations with Putin © Sputnik / AFP / Getty Images
For now, all eyes are on France’s presidential election next Sunday. Marin Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National Assembly, is running President Emmanuel Macron near the election. Le Pen has a history of hostility to the EU and NATO and remains a proponent of rapprochement with Russia. In a foreign policy speech in Paris this week, she stressed that “equidistance” should be a central principle of French foreign policy – meaning that France should not prefer its relations with the United States to its relations with Russia.
Looking farther into the distance, many Europeans are anxiously watching Biden’s declining numbers in the polls. The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2024 scares some NATO and EU officials.
Even without Trump or Le Pen in power, tensions within the EU are already growing. Macron recently attacked Mateusz Morawiecki, calling him “an extreme right-wing anti-Semite who bans LGBT people” after criticism from the Polish prime minister of Macron’s decision to make numerous phone calls to Putin.
Marin Le Pen of the far-right National Organization, which has a history of hostility to the EU and NATO, is right behind Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential race © Clement Mahoudeau / AFP / Getty Images Some NATO and EU officials fear the prospect of Donald’s return Trump in the White House in 2024 could threaten Western unity against Russia © Chris Seward / AP
This kind of intra-European tension may escalate in the coming months as the war in Ukraine drags on. The initial euphoria over the strength of Western sanctions may give way to feelings of helplessness and despair as Russia commits war crimes in Ukraine while the West watches from the sidelines. Rising inflation in the West – in particular the jump in energy prices – could mean that voters’ attention is shifting from Ukraine to economic difficulties at home.
Le Pen is already making the cost of living at the heart of his campaign – and it will only rise across Europe. For example, British consumers, who have just seen a 50 per cent increase in their energy bills, are likely to be affected by another 50 per cent increase in the autumn. These economic problems are already leading to divisions over sanctions. Germany continues to resist pressure to stop Russian gas imports immediately, arguing that a rapid curtailment could lead to spikes in inflation and unemployment.
The indifferent south
In the West, it is also noticeable that the idea that the whole world is united in condemning Russian actions is clearly false. Of course, there were some significant diplomatic changes for the Kremlin. The initial Russian invasion was condemned by the UN General Assembly with 141 votes against. On the other hand, there were very significant abstentions. In fact, countries that have failed to condemn Russia at the UN, including China and India, make up more than half of the world’s population.
India’s response to the war in Ukraine is a matter of particular concern and warning to the West. Often hailed as the world’s largest democracy, Indians are crucial partners in America’s plans to oppose China to Xi Jinping. Washington has even tried to change the label of the region, once called the Asia-Pacific region, as the Indo-Pacific region, a tribute to India’s geopolitical importance. Along with Australia, Japan and the United States, the Indians are part of the Quad, a security group that China has denounced as part of the embryonic “Asian NATO.”
But while Australia and Japan have joined the West in the repulse against Russia, India has clearly sided. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently paid a friendly visit to Delhi and had a private meeting with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. The most inconvenient explanation for India’s neutrality is simple real politics: Indians buy a lot of weapons from Russia, and their main strategic concerns are Pakistan and China – so they see no reason to quarrel with Russia.
The Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. As other Indo-Pacific countries join the “West” in repelling Russia, India has apparently sided with © President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil was one of the last foreign leaders to visit Vladimir Putin in Moscow before the invasion and remained neutral. of war © Andressa Anholete / Getty Images
But there are obviously some sentiments. Indian media comments on the war are full of references to the country’s long-standing friendship with Russia – and to the hypocrisy of the West, with everything from the British Empire to the Iraq war, quoted as evidence. Kapil Komiredi, an Indian commentator who is sharply critical of his own government’s stance on Ukraine, also condemned the “unbearable love of the West.”
India is far from an isolated case. Brazil and South Africa also abstained in key UN votes on Ukraine. Two weeks after the Russian invasion, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa – considered a defender of the rule of law and democracy at home – wrote on Twitter thanking “His Excellency Vladimir Putin for accepting my call today.” Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was once a close ally …
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