The race to prepare for the battle of Donbass continues as Russia transfers troops, materials and targets to Ukraine’s eastern region, and the United States and its allies rush to arms to equip Ukraine’s forces.
The general picture: In the first phase of the war, Russian troops attacked on three broad fronts, hoping to take over the cities quickly, but they overloaded themselves and suffered heavy losses. Russia is withdrawing tens of thousands of these troops and preparing them for a closer and potentially decisive battle for Donbass.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has said peace talks are deadlocked and Moscow’s focus now will be on the “liberation” of the entire Donbass, about a third of which was controlled by Russian-backed separatists before his February 24th invasion.
- Putin justified the invasion in part with false allegations of “genocide” against Russian-speakers in Donbas – a claim undermined by fierce resistance from civilians in predominantly Russian-speaking cities such as Mariupol.
- This city, the third largest in the Donbass after Russia’s Donetsk and Luhansk, could be within days of Russia’s fall after seven weeks of brutal bombing. This will give Putin the much-needed symbolic victory and release more Russian forces for the upcoming offensive.
The battle for Donbass will remove some of the obstacles that Russian forces have struggled with elsewhere in the campaign.
- It is largely flat and wide open, unlike the more urban terrain near Kyiv. This is ideal for Russian artillery and tanks, although the rains have made much of the land muddy.
- Russia should have fewer problems with supply lines struggling so close to its own territory, and fewer organizational and communication challenges in a more concentrated battle.
Yes, but: workforce and morale are both obstacles. It will take time to properly reorganize and redeploy so many units, given the heavy losses Russia has suffered, said Michael Coffman, a leading expert on the Russian military at the CNA. A large number of reserves are not expected soon.
- Ukrainian forces have also dug into much of the region during the eight-year war and are likely to fortify cities and plant mines to further delay Russia’s advance, he said.
- Coffman believes that it would be wise for Russian commanders to postpone their offensive until they have time to fully mobilize, instead of “repeating the mistakes of earlier in the war.”
- But it will also leave time for Ukraine’s Western partners to supply additional heavy weapons.
What to watch: Concerns in Washington and some European capitals that Moscow will view the supply of some offensive weapons as too “provocative” have largely faded, said Zachary Basu of Axios.
- The $ 800 million package announced by President Biden on Wednesday includes helicopters, artillery systems and armored vehicles.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more in his latest video address, saying: “Freedom must be better armed than tyranny.”
Lastly, Russia also suffered a major blow on Thursday, the 50th day of the war: the cruiser Moscow, the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, sank. This is the largest warship sunk in decades.
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