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What you need to know about the playoffs on Saturday
Loss of Luka: Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic for Saturday’s jazz match. Jalen Brunson sees his usage rates and assists rising to stellar levels as Doncic gets off the floor. Vilanova’s product has averaged 22.1 points and 7.5 assists in 36 minutes with Doncic off the court this season, compared to 18.4 and 5.4 with him. In addition to Brunson, Spencer Dinuidi’s microwave shone in similar scenarios; his utilization rate jumped from the team’s high of 9.1% to continue with a 13-point DraftKings increase in 36 minutes, with Doncic off the floor. Central Dwight Powell, on the other hand, sees his score drop significantly when Doncic is not on the court.
Steph Effect: Steve Kerr joked that Stephen Curry did not play 38 minutes on Saturday’s return from a leg injury, but will not go into specific limits for his superstar guard. A remarkable result of Curry’s likely return is how Jordan Poole’s extreme breakup turns out to be with his teammate this season. The contender for the best player averaged 25.1 points, 5.8 cents and 10.3 attempts for 3 points in 36 minutes with Curry off the court, but his scores dropped to 18.2, 3.5 and 7, 6 when they share the floor. If Curry can get back in shape, it’s important that Denver have conceded 50.2 points to DraftKings in a points guard game this season, the fourth highest in the league.
Step forward: Without a true traditional defender, the Toronto Raptors often distribute distribution responsibilities among several key playmakers. Striker Pascal Siakam has been particularly dominant against the 76ers this season, scoring his third triple-double of his career in a win just weeks ago. As the creator of Toronto against the Sixers, he averaged 8.3 cents this season, highlighting Siakam’s 4.5 assists, as well as his potential to flirt with the tournament’s leaning DFS production.
Swat Watch: Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Grizzlies is ahead of the entire league by 40 blocks this season. This elite defender has made a dozen strikes against the Timberwolves in four games this season, the most against any opponent. With a 1.5-block block with heavy juice and plus 2.5-block money in most books, “JJJ” heads to Saturday’s opener against Minnesota with a value of defensive support as the league’s best wheel protector.
“Jim McCormick.”
Game of the night
Toronto Raptors in Philadelphia 76ers6 pm ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Line: 76ers (-4,5) Currency: 76ers (-190), Raptors (+160) Total: 216 points BPI Predicted total: 212,8BPI Win%: 76ers (66,2)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: The Raptors have won four of their last five games as outsiders.
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Erin Dolan shares her favorite bet in the first round series between the Raptors and the 76ers.
Best bet: Tobias Harris under 1.5 made 3s. Harris shot 18.8 percent of the 3-point range in four games against the Raptors in the regular season. Toronto’s defense has continued to improve and will likely limit Harris. “Erin Dolan.”
Best bet: Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points. Siakam has been big in this stretch, averaging 27.0 PPG in its last 20 games, surpassing 23.5 points in 14 of 20 games. He was even better against the 76ers in particular, averaging 30.3 PPG at 50.7 FG% with at least 26 points in all three games with them this season. “Andre Snelings.”
Best bet: Scotty Barnes over 0.5 made 3s. Barnes is not known for his ability to shoot 3s, but has an average of 2.6 per game. He has tripled in five of his last six games and two of his three games against the 76ers in the regular season. “Eric Moody.”
Breaking the rest of the plate
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks 13:00 ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Jazz (-5,0) Currency: Jazz (-210), Mavericks (+175) Total: 209,5 BPI points Forecast total: 216,8 BPI points Win%: Mavericks (50,7%)
Key players dropped out: Luka Doncic
Remarkable: The host team has won each of the last seven games between Jazz and Mavericks.
Best bet: Rudy Gober over 14.5 rebounds. Gober’s rebound seems high, but he has to dominate the glass and I don’t see the Mavericks having an answer after they exchanged Christaps Porzingis in Washington. Gober has achieved this in five of his last eight games. Although he did not score in three consecutive games, the first two against an elite race, he made 21 fights against Memphis and 20 fights against Golden State. You can count on Gobert to step up in the big games. – Dolan
Best bet: Jazz -5. Once Doncic is ruled out, the Mavericks will be without the player responsible for most of their success this season. Jazz comes with a clear advantage, and if they get any hint of the Donovan Mitchell Playoffs explosion they usually get from it in the postseason, they still need to be in better shape. – Snelings
Minnesota Timberwolves at the Memphis Grizzlies 15:30 ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee.
Line: Grizzlies (-7.0) Currency: Grizzlies (-300), Timberwolves (+240) Total: 235 BPI points Forecast total: 227.8 BPI points Win%: Grizzlies (72.5%)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: Each of the last nine playoff games of the Grizzlies has exceeded the total.
Best bet: Over 235 points. The Timberwolves are in seventh place in points per 100 possessions, and the Grizzlies are in fourth place. In addition, both teams earn a lot of points in transition games. There will be a lot of possessions in this game, which portends good over. Thirty-six of Timberwolves’ last 52 games have topped Moody’s.
Best bet: Memphis 1H (-4.5). The Grizzlies were the best team in the league in the first half of the regular season with a score of 54-27-1. Memphis also has an 8-2 ATS in 1H overall and at home in the last 10 games. Both teams play at the fastest pace in the league. I think the Grizzlies jumped out fast and scored a lot of points. – Dolan
Anthony Edwards can be prepared for a big game against the Grizzlies after shining against them in the regular season. David Sherman / NBAE via Getty Images
Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 22.5 points. Edwards averaged 24.4 PPG over 11 games to close the regular season. The Grizzlies’ defense will be difficult to win, but Edwards has scored 23, 27 and 30 points in his three previous games against them this season. This may be his moment to shine. – Moody
Best bet: Desmond Bain over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds. Bane enjoyed a breakthrough in his second season in the league. While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are receiving a lot of attention and right, Bane is an integral part of the Grizzlies’ success. He averaged 18.2 PPG in the regular season, while the Timberwolves allowed 23 PPG, 5.1 APG and 7.0 RPG. Bane is likely to reach or exceed these averages on Saturday afternoon. – Moody
Best bet: Patrick Beverly under 9.5 points. Beverly had seven points against the Clippers, but the boy was incensed after the Timberwolves’ victory over the Clippers. It is right to fade it in this match. He has averaged nine points in his last four games against the Grizzlies and has surpassed his points in just two of his last 10 games. – Dolan
Best bet: Carl-Anthony Towns under 24.5 points. Townes retreated offensively, partly to allow Anthony Edwards to shine. Towns has averaged 22.4 PPG in his last 10 games of the regular season, falling below 24.5 points in six of those outings, then scoring just 11 points before being eliminated in the Wolves’ victory over the Clippers. Townes has faced the Grizzlies four times this season, averaging 23.3 PPG and scoring 22 points against them in their last game. – Snelings
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors 8:30 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors (-6.5) Currency: Warriors (-260), Nuggets (+210) Total: 223 BPI points Forecast total: 224.4 BPI points Win%: Warriors (68.4%)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: The Warriors have failed to cover the distribution in seven of their last eight playoff games as favorites.
Best bet: Nuggets +6.5 points. There is a good chance for the Warriors to get Stephen Curry back for Match 1, which is one of the only moments this season when their team will have the top five players playing together. They have a huge plus, but may have some growing pain as Curry removes rust and everyone gets used to playing together again. The Nuggets finished the season well, making 25-10 in the last 35 games played by Nikola Jokic, and finished 3-1 in their four games with the Warriors this season. – Snelings
Best bet: Draymond Green over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. Green will be the most important Warriors player in this series. He has averaged 7.0 PPG, 10.3 APG and 8.0 RPG in his last four games against the Nuggets. The power strikers thrived against the Nuggets in the regular season and averaged 22 PPG, 3.5 APG and 10.5 RPG – Moody’s
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected amounts
1. Memphis Grizzlies (117.4 points) 2. Golden State Warriors (114.9 points) 3. Minnesota Timberwolves (110.4 points)
BPI lowest estimated amounts
1. Toronto Raptors (104.1 points) 2. Utah Jazz (108.3 points) 3. Philadelphia 76ers (108.7 points)
BPI most likely to win (straight)
1. Memphis Grizzlies (72.5%) 2. Golden State Warriors (68.4%) 3. Philadelphia 76ers (66.2%)
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