The NBA playoffs are here with four first-round games on Saturday and Sunday.
To the east, all eyes will be on the Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets, as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving look to upset the No. 2 Celtics, who are without the injured Robert Williams III center, in what should be a competitive series.
In the West, injuries can dictate teams advance. Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will miss Saturday’s Match 1 against Utah Jazz over a stretched left calf, according to ESPN’s Adrian Voynarovski and Tim McMahon. And Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry has been named as likely for Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets after missing the last 12 regular season games with a left leg injury.
Which returning player can have the most influence? What higher start can you afford to at least lose Game 1 this weekend? Our NBA experts break the best storylines from the first round.
MORE: What you need to know about the NBA postseason Schedules
1. Which series of the first round is the most competitive?
Kevin Pelton: Boston and Brooklyn. As I outlined in the preview of my series, the Nets are much better than their overall record with healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving available next to him, while the Celtics are not the same giant without injured center Robert Williams III. As a result, these teams look surprising even under № 2 and № 7.
Tim Bontemps: Many will probably say the Nets-Celtics, given the star power involved, but I’ll go with another series from the Eastern Conference: Philadelphia-Toronto. The 76ers have the best player in the series with a significant amount in Joel Embiid. But Toronto must have a coaching advantage, Philadelphia will not have Mathis Tibul for all three games in Toronto, and the Raptors have the perfect range of long, athletic players to take advantage of Philadelphia’s lack of athleticism and make a living. James Harden is extremely difficult. Embiid Must be enough to power Philadelphia and win this series. But this should be a very difficult test – one that can easily pass seven games – and can send Philly home much sooner than he expects.
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Kevin Arnowitz: Dallas-Utah. Both games 4-5 have a strong potential of seven games, but Mavericks and Jazz need to be really competitive. It’s been a while since Utah has played a long part of dominant basketball, but Jazz is still the league’s highest-ranked attack. Dallas, meanwhile, is one of the best stories of 2022. When he’s healthy, Luke is Luke. Spencer Dinuidi added some juice, which the team desperately needed on the perimeter, and the defense – traditionally a weakness – was strong throughout the season. Both teams have been disappointing in recent seasons … and one will be again when this series ends.
Ramona Shelburn: Even without Luka Doncic missing Game 1, I thought the Mavericks-Jazz series would be tough. I know a lot of people don’t play jazz because of past failures in the playoffs, but I’ve always felt like they have the ability to put it together one of those years if they hit a few breaks.
Jamal Collier: Boston-Brooklyn. I don’t think a team with Durant and Irving will come out quietly. It looks like a series of seven games with a chance to take a few games to the extreme, and these are two dangerous players who must try to outdo in the performance of the clutch. In the end, it’s hard for me to see the Nets play or defend at a high enough level for four of the seven games to succeed in this series, but it will be fun to watch.
Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will miss Match 1 against Utah by stretching the calf. Tim Heitman / Getty Images
2. Which injured player’s return could have the biggest impact in the first round?
Pelton: Doncic returns from stretching his calves. Although Stephen Curry is at least as valuable to his team, Curry’s schedule is clearer. We have no idea at the moment whether Doncic can return to the court for match 2, after our ESPN colleague Adrian Vojnarovski announced that he will miss at least the first match of the Mavericks series against Jazz. The speed of his recovery will help a lot to determine the outcome of this series.
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Good time: I thought Dallas was the biggest threat to Phoenix in the Western Conference before Doncic injured his calf in the Mavericks regular season finale. Now Utah is probably the favorite to advance, as we have no idea how much Doncic will be able to play – or how effective he will be. What seemed like a chance for the young superstar to make a deep post-season experience could be over before it started.
Arnowitz: Doncic is the engine, fuel and torque of the Mavericks’ attack and his condition is more important to his team than any player in the West. Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson can conduct a quality pick-and-roll attack, but neither of them has the creativity to turn anyone on the floor into a threat. The good news for Dallas is that his defense is stingy, and given Doncic’s shortcomings at this end of the floor, that shouldn’t change.
Collier: Doncic. I don’t think there is a single team in the NBA whose success is tied to one player as much as to the Mavericks with Doncic. If he doesn’t play or isn’t 100 percent, I don’t think Dallas can move forward in this series.
Shelburn: The Warriors can win a few games without Curry, but they really aren’t Warriors without Curry, are they? It will take him a few games to develop, but once he does, he completely changes the dynamics of this team.
3. What is your choice for a breakthrough in the playoffs?
Pelton: Bruce Brown, who has been playing at a high level for the last two months. Brown averaged 14.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 3.7 APG after the All-Star break, finding the perfect role to support Durant and Irving in attack while serving as the Nets’ best perimeter defender. He has flirted with triple-doubles in two of Brooklyn’s last three games and the Nets need him to play at that level to advance deep into the playoffs.
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Good time: Jaren Jackson Jr. Obviously, when everyone thinks of the Memphis Grizzlies, the first person they think of is Ja Morant – and deservedly so. But Jackson has made a huge leap forward this season in defense by joining Player of the Year talks for all defenders and defenders. With the Grizzlies having a chance to make a deep playoff for the first time, Jackson will have a chance to show the world why he and Morant are such an electrifying blow one or two in Memphis.
Arnowitz: For two seasons, Memphis Grizzlies keeper Desmond Bain has established himself as the No. 30 thief in the 2020 draft with 43.5 percent of 3 career points. But Bane also has a game on the floor that is improving, and the power to impact the game at both ends. Minnesota is passing a large number of attempts for 3 points and will pay a lot of attention to Morant, which allows Bane to be a deadly threat from the other side for the Grizzlies.
Shelburn: Is Morant reported? Because I think he will exceed everyone’s high expectations for him and the Grizzlies. I had a CEO who I believe told me a few months ago that Memphis could be the best team in the league. The more I think about it, the more I start to agree with him.
Collier: Anthony Edwards. No player will benefit more from his first exposure on the national stage, both on and off the court. Even if his team can’t deal with the disappointment, Edwards will be the player everyone is talking about after this series.
The Philadelphia 76ers will be defective in their games against the Toronto Raptors. Vaughn Ridley / NBAE via Getty Images
4. Which higher start can at least afford to lose game 1?
Pelton: Philadelphia. The Sixers are in an unusual place because they already know they will miss the Toronto Games because of Tibul’s vaccinated status. Losing Match 1 would force Philly to win at least one match on the road and put more pressure on the team’s other defensive options on the wing.
Good time: Philadelphia, both because Thybulle will not be available in road games and to set a good tone for this series by starting a good start. But that could apply to Dallas, with Doncic’s precarious health, and the Golden State Warriors, due to Curry’s injury situation.
Arnowitz: Philadelphia 76ers. Anyone who has spent significant time at Scotiabank Arena in the spring knows that the Raptors and their home crowd do not provide hospitality to visitors. These road games in Toronto will be even more insidious for the Sixers without Thybulle. On top of that, the Sixers lost some of their depth in the deadline, while OG Anunoby of the Raptors, one of their best two-way threats, has just returned.
Shelburn: Philadelphia would always have a tough game with Toronto because of the length and depth of the Raptors. Now the Sixers have to play without Tiboul in Toronto, which makes it even more important to keep the service at home.
Collier: Philly. The overreactions in Match 1 have underestimated much of the playoffs, and I can’t imagine everyone accepting if the Sixers lay an egg at home to start the series. Especially considering that they will be playing shorthand in Toronto.
5. What is your bold prediction for the first round?
Pelton: After scoring 50 points in match 3 of last year’s first-round match against Brooklyn, Jason Tatum will break the Celtics’ record in the playoff single-player franchise held by John Havlicek, scoring at least 55 against …
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