On Wednesday, the United States pledged another $ 800 million in arms to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion comes in its third month and Russian forces threaten to take the southern city of Mariupol and strike the capital Kyiv with missile strikes.
The Ukrainian military has made impressive use of weapons provided by NATO members before the invasion and in the past few weeks, including portable missiles and artillery. Despite Russia’s superior armaments, Ukrainian forces have been able to take advantage of poor planning and tactical mistakes by Russian forces in many cases to maintain control of most major settlements. However, the Ukrainian government is calling for additional weapons, especially fighter jets, to continue detaining Russian forces, which NATO as a whole has so far refused to provide. Poland proposed fighter jets to the Ukrainian government last month, but the plan was scrapped after the United States intervened to stop it.
The new US promise is to include some aircraft, Reuters reported on Thursday, although not the fighters Ukraine wants to fend off Russian air forces; instead, 11 Russian Mi-17 helicopters, originally intended for US forces in Afghanistan before its chaotic departure last summer, were sent to Ukraine. Although not as agile as combat aircraft such as the MiG-29 or F-16, some versions of the Mi-17 can be equipped with anti-tank missiles and other weapons to attack the Russian ground and air forces. The United States has already delivered five Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine earlier this year.
Powerful weapon systems such as howitzers – essentially portable field guns that can fire projectiles on long trajectories, including precision-guided munitions – are also targeting Ukraine, along with armored personnel carriers and other vehicles, hundreds of portable munitions ammunition for drones , as well as various other defense systems and protective equipment, are also designed for Ukraine. The Pentagon confirmed to Vox on Sunday that arms supplies were already under way, although a spokesman did not give details or answer questions, particularly about helicopters, including the specific model the United States will send to Ukraine.
New weapons offer new advantages and challenges
“They get a lot of what they need,” Rita Konaev, associate director of analysis at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University, told Vox on Sunday, despite Ukraine’s ongoing requests for fighters to counter of the Russian Air Force. “This is unprecedented. We haven’t seen that much [weaponry] of that caliber, so fast. ”
In particular, howitzers, as well as armored vehicles, are on the wish list of weapons that Ukraine’s armed forces desperately need to repel Russian forces as combat concentrates in the southeastern Donbass region. This equipment represents a significant increase in capabilities as Ukraine tries to repel Russian forces, John Spencer, an expert on urban warfare at the Madison Policy Forum, told Reuters. “You need these bigger, more powerful weapons … to match what Russia is carrying to try to take over eastern Ukraine,” he said.
Russia is expected to intensify fighting in the Donbass in the east in the coming days and weeks, making the rapid delivery of new weapons and equipment crucial. Russia’s victory seems inevitable in Mariupol, where Russian forces have bombed and cut off access to basic necessities and humanitarian aid for weeks, and they could use the same brutal tactics to claim other Ukrainian cities. With the change in mind, spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday that the Pentagon was sending new weapons packages as soon as possible.
“You’ve seen us go back in time from the moment the president authorized the withdrawal, until the first shipments actually start landing in the region, it could only be four to five days,” Kirby said. “And then a few more days … after they are there to be processed and in fact in the hands of the Ukrainian front forces,” Kirby told reporters, noting that although there will be some procedural bureaucracy regarding the new package, “We will not wait, we will start receiving these articles along the way. So we’ll literally start right away. “
As some of the weapons systems – namely howitzers and Switchblades – are new to Ukrainian troops, there will be a training curve in the midst of a very active conflict. However, Kirby told reporters on Thursday that he did not think training Ukrainian troops with the new weapons would be very useful; in fact, some Ukrainian troops have already been trained to use Switchblades, according to the New York Times.
“While some of these systems, radar, howitzers, will require some familiarity and some basic training … this is not excessive,” he said. “It won’t take long. This will not require a large set of learners. We are going to make it. We will try to provide opportunities for a small number of Ukrainians to be familiar with these systems. But we do not believe that this will be a burdensome task or time consuming.
But the Biden administration’s new commitment, both in terms of weapons and timely delivery and training, has drawn criticism from Russia, according to Karen DeYang of the Washington Post on Thursday.
“We call on the United States and its allies to stop the irresponsible militarization of Ukraine, which has unpredictable consequences for regional and international security,” warned an official diplomatic note from the Russian embassy to the US State Department.
The Post reported that the note could mean that Russia intends to start attacking arms supplies coming to Ukraine; so far, Russian forces have not done so, although they consider the arms convoys to be legitimate military purposes. It is also not beyond their reach to attack arms depots outside Ukraine, according to George Beeby, a former CIA director for Russia’s analysis. “There was an assumption on the part of many of us in the West that we could supply Ukrainians indeed without restrictions and not take a significant risk of retaliation from Russia,” he told the Post. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that this is not true.
Can new weapons make a difference?
A more positive rotation of the note comes from a senior U.S. official who told the Post that Russia’s warning was an indication that U.S. and NATO arms supplies to Ukraine were working as intended.
“What the Russians are telling us in private is exactly what we are telling the world in public – that the huge help we are giving to our Ukrainian partners is proving to be extremely effective,” the official said. While US and NATO weapons have certainly played a significant role in Ukraine’s defense – and these new weapons are likely to be effective in this new phase of the conflict – there are complicating factors to consider when assessing the effectiveness of the new weapons cache. who are making their way to Ukraine.
First of all, while howitzers and radar equipment in particular will help Ukraine’s armed forces achieve something that is close to parity with Russian forces in terms of armaments, this is quite specific to this theater, Konaev said. As the fighting has moved beyond urban centers and into more “open range, open space,” she said, “hardware can be more significant.” Ukrainian forces are losing the defensive advantage they had in an urban context, and the ability to detect and attack Russian weapons systems more effectively could provide an advantage.
But again, this advantage is contextual, and although Ukrainian troops will receive some training on how to use the new weapons, it is unclear what kind of support they will receive. “We are talking about quantity and type,” Konaev said. “We don’t talk enough about the survival of equipment.” Things like repairs, spare parts, and critical software upgrades are crucial to ensure that equipment is durable and can be used sustainably in a war that has no end date.
Less exciting than drone, mine, and ammunition — but perhaps just as critical — is the protective equipment the United States sends. Despite heavy losses, Russia could theoretically continue to replenish its troops in Ukraine if it decides to do so. “We don’t know what Ukraine’s bench looks like; they do not have the ability to replenish forces, “Konaev told Vox. Keeping Ukrainian troops alive and able to fight will be a critical part of ongoing assistance.
But the bigger questions – what the desired and realistic results of this conflict are and what a long-term strategic partnership to support Ukraine in this war should look like – remain unanswered. Apart from the triumph of democracy over authoritarianism, specific, measurable strategic goals of US support are not clearly stated. In other words, Konayev said, we don’t know if Ukraine’s goal is “to win?” When? How? And at what cost? “
The sending of weapons is crucial for Ukraine to protect itself from an unjust and devastating Russian invasion; this is indisputable. But it serves only an immediate need and is narrow in scope; defense support does not address the great humanitarian devastation that Russia is causing in the settlements as part of its military strategy. The United States and its allies have pledged humanitarian and economic aid, which should be part of their long-term support for Ukraine. In the immediate and long term, weapons are not the only critical need; food, shelter, medicine and medical care are just as important for …
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