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If Russian forces stumble into the next phase of the war, as they did in the first, the greater Russia’s chances of directing NATO supplies to NATO territory.
Author of the article:
Washington Post
Karen DeYang, The Washington Post
Publication date:
April 18, 2022 • 2 hours ago • 5 minutes reading • 262 comments Ukrainian soldiers stand on top of a Russian artillery machine that they captured during the battle near Kharkov while Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, Ukraine, March 29, 2022 Photo by REUTERS / Thomas Peter
Content of the article
WASHINGTON – Russia sent an official diplomatic note to the United States this week, warning that supplies by the United States and NATO of Ukraine’s “most sensitive” weapons systems are “fueling” the conflict there and could have “unpredictable consequences.”
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The diplomatic démarche, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington Post, came when President Joe Biden approved a dramatic expansion of arms provided to Ukraine, a $ 800 million package including 155 mm howitzers – a major modernization in the long run. artillery with a range corresponding to the Russian systems – drones for coastal defense and armored vehicles, as well as additional portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons and millions of rounds of ammunition.
The United States has also facilitated the supply of long-range air defense systems to Ukraine, including Slovakia’s shipment of Soviet-era Russian S-300 launchers, on which Ukrainian forces have already been trained. In return, the administration announced last week, the United States has a Patriot missile system in Slovakia and is consulting with Slovakia on a long-term replacement.
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The arms deliveries, the first wave of which US officials say will arrive in Ukraine in days, are following an urgent call to Biden by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, as Russian forces are said to be mobilizing for a major attack on the Donbass region. in eastern Ukraine and along the coastline connecting it with the Russian-occupied Crimea to the south. Russian troops are largely withdrawing from much of the north, including around the capital Kyiv, following humiliating defeats by Ukrainian military and local resistance.
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“What the Russians are telling us in private is exactly what we are telling the world in public – that the huge help we are giving to our Ukrainian partners is proving to be extremely effective,” said a senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity. sensitive diplomatic document.
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The State Department declined to comment on the contents of the bilateral diplomatic note or any US response.
Russian experts suggest that Moscow, which has identified arms convoys entering the country as legitimate military targets but has not attacked them so far, may be preparing to do so.
“They headed to supply depots in Ukraine itself, where some of those supplies were stored,” said George Beeby, a former director of Russia’s CIA analysis and former Vice President Dick Cheney’s adviser on Russia. “The real question is whether they go beyond targeting attempts [the weapons] on Ukrainian territory, try to hit the supply convoys themselves and perhaps NATO countries on the Ukrainian periphery, ”which serve as transfer points for US supplies.
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If Russian forces stumble into the next phase of the war, as they did in the first, “then I think the chances of Russia directing NATO supplies to NATO are greatly increased,” Beeby said. “There was speculation on the part of many of us in the West that we could supply Ukrainians indeed without restrictions and not take a significant risk of retaliation from Russia,” he said. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that this is not true.
The diplomatic note dates back to Tuesday, as information about the new weapons package leaked for the first time, leading to a total of $ 3.2 billion in US military aid to Ukraine since the February 24 invasion, according to a Pentagon spokesman. John Kirby. In a public statement Wednesday, Biden said he would include “new capabilities in line with the wider attack we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine.”
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A document entitled “On Russia’s Concerns in the Context of the Regime’s Mass Supplies of Arms and Military Equipment in Kyiv”, written in Russian with a translation provided, was forwarded to the State Department by the Russian Embassy in Washington.
The Russian embassy did not respond to requests for comment.
Among the items identified by Russia as “most sensitive” are “multiple missile systems”, although it is believed that the United States and its NATO allies did not supply these weapons to Ukraine. Russia has accused its allies of violating “strict principles governing the transfer of weapons to conflict zones” and of ignoring “the threat of high-precision weapons falling into the hands of radical nationalists, extremists and gangs in Ukraine.”
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He accused NATO of trying to pressure Ukraine to “give up” the scattering and so far unsuccessful talks with Russia “to continue the bloodshed”. According to him, Washington is putting pressure on other countries to stop all military and technical cooperation with Russia, and those with Soviet-era weapons to transfer them to Ukraine.
“We call on the United States and its allies to stop the irresponsible militarization of Ukraine, which has unpredictable consequences for regional and international security,” the note said.
Andrew Weiss, former director of the National Security Council for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia and now vice president of research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech in February morning beginning the invasion, warned that Western nations will face “consequences greater than any you have ever encountered in history” if they get involved in the conflict.
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At the time, attention was focused on reminding Putin that Russia had a powerful nuclear arsenal, Weiss said, but it was also “a very explicit warning not to send weapons into a conflict zone.” After drawing a red line, he asked, “Are the Russians willing to support this now?”
Such an attack would be “a very important escalation move, primarily because it poses a threat to the West if they are unable to maintain supplies to Ukraine, which in turn could reduce Ukraine’s capacity for self-defense.” This risk “should not be underestimated,” he said, noting the additional risk that a convoy strike in Ukraine would go awry over NATO’s border.
Senior U.S. defense officials remain concerned about the possibility of such attacks. “We do not take any movement of weapons and systems entering Ukraine for granted,” Kirby said on Thursday. “Not on a given day.”
Kirby said Ukrainian troops were importing weapons into Ukraine after the United States brought them into the region, and “the less we talk about it, the better.”
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