From carbon capture and hydrogen development to accelerated wind and solar deployment and rapid electrification of transportation systems, the federal government has set out an ambitious roadmap to bring Canada to its climate target of reducing emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels. by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050
But repairing the country’s entire energy infrastructure in a short period of time is an unprecedented technical challenge that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts say.
And pessimists are quick to point out that Canada has not had good results lately when it comes to bringing ambitious, expensive infrastructure projects over the finish line.
In Alberta in particular, where the ghosts of canceled gas pipeline projects still haunt the public consciousness, some observers say the country has lost the political will and spirit of national unity needed to do great things.
“We’ve spent a decade making it extremely difficult, if not impossible,” said Calgary-based energy analyst, CEO of oil services and consultant David Jaeger.
“Canada’s recent history shows this [net-zero] the goals are ambitious to say the least. “
Problematic Canadian energy projects
Yager cites Enbridge Inc.’s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which was canceled by federal liberals in 2016.
In 2017, the proposed $ 15.7 billion Energy East project was canceled by TransCanada after it was mired in regulatory delays, new environmental criteria and opposition to the line on the main sections of the proposed route.
Then, in 2021, TC Energy’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline project was canceled by US President Joe Biden, the culmination of more than a decade of battle between the energy industry and environmentalists who oppose the project.
There are many other high-profile examples of troubled Canadian energy projects, from the Coastal GasLink pipeline – the construction of which led to railway blockades across the country by local opponents and supporters – to Pacific Northwest LNG, a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in Prince Rupert, British Columbia. , which was scrapped by Malaysian Petronas and partners in 2017, in part due to concerns expressed by indigenous local groups about the project’s impact on salmon spawning grounds in the area.
As the Trans Mountain pipeline expands, the cost of the project rose to $ 21.4 billion after being purchased by the federal government for $ 4.5 billion in 2018.
Trans Mountain is plagued by increased security costs, route changes to avoid culturally and environmentally sensitive areas, and delays in permitting processes, among other issues.
Merger into opposition
Opponents of these projects say the repeal and delay show the need to end dependence on the fossil fuel industry and move to greener energy production.
But it’s not just oil and gas projects that are becoming more difficult to build these days, Jaeger said. In Ontario, wind farm projects have been canceled because they pose a threat to bat populations.
In Quebec, the proposed waterline, which would carry clean energy to Massachusetts, was scrapped after residents of Little Maine refused to allow transmission through their state.
“You can no longer even build a mobile phone tower without facing opposition,” Jaeger said. “Where do you think you could put up a new water dam nowadays? Nowhere.”
“All these things will have an imprint”
Experts suggest that Canada will need to double, perhaps even triple, its size by 2050 to meet its zero net targets.
This will require not only new transmission infrastructure, but also inter-provincial cooperation for new regional connections to help connect clean energy areas with areas that still rely on coal.
In addition, the federal government wants to increase production in Canada of critical minerals such as copper, aluminum and lithium to support an internal supply chain for the electric vehicle industry.
The prospect is daunting, said Warren Mayby, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.
“All of these things have an imprint and will be a challenge to implement,” he said.
Political will
Canada is not the only jurisdiction where large-scale infrastructure projects are increasingly facing regulatory and social licensing challenges.
The story is similar in the United States and Europe, Mayby said, adding that there is a real risk that companies in the clean energy space will fail to meet their obligations to the developing world or other jurisdictions where rules are less stringent and public a word about where and how things are built.
He added that he believed it was possible for Canada to achieve its goals with a net zero, but said the government would need to make clear what the vision was – and then have the political will to impose it.
“The level of effort that will be needed will be comparable to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Mayby said.
The public interest
But Donna Kennedy-Glans, a former chief executive of the oil industry who was Alberta’s assistant secretary of electricity and renewable energy from 2013 to 2014, said she did not think projects in the name of the energy transition would face the same kind of obstacles that the oil and gas industry has faced in recent years.
She said that while there are certainly people who oppose large-scale wind and solar farms, some of the world’s largest renewable energy projects are thriving in Alberta right now, and the regulatory process has generally gone smoothly.
“Very few people are stepping up to try to stop this … people who are complaining are seen as opposed to green energy, and it’s really not a comfortable place to live,” Kennedy-Glans said.
She added that she believes that even large-scale expropriation of private land for new transmission lines, for example, will face relatively little political and regulatory repulsion if done in the name of climate change.
“There will be a different level of political will to do that,” Kennedy-Glans said. “I think people in the affected communities will be upset by this … but it will come down to the question, ‘Is this in the public interest and is it right to do it?’
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