As significant as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, the most important strategic event in recent weeks has been the global economic war between Russia and the United States and its allies. However, Russia has long been preparing to confront the West and challenge the Western socio-economic model.
Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine are well known. Russia’s geography and history are forcing its leaders to create and maintain a buffer between Moscow and the great powers in Western Europe and to provide access to the Black Sea. Ukraine is crucial for both purposes. But beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin sees the expansion of Western influence in the east, including in Russia, as a modern covert invasion that threatens the Russian regime.
It is not Western organizations such as NATO and the European Union that are challenging the Kremlin, but the socio-economic model that allowed the West to win the Cold War and entice Eastern Europeans to want to join the West. When he became president of Russia in 2000, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic crisis of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin inherited a shattered country. Many Russians have considered joining the European Union, hoping that bringing it into line with the West will bring a better life.
The priority for the Russian establishment was to stabilize and rebuild the country. Putin simply wanted to survive politically. Following the example of previous successful Russian leaders, he centralized power. Knowing that he needed stability and growth to slow the pace of emigration and cope with Russia’s poor demographics, Putin sought to make Europe economically dependent on Moscow. Looking back at history and the current balance of power, he identified Germany as the cornerstone of his strategy for dependence.
“Russia’s ties with Germany were key to establishing ties with the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russia’s strategy in Europe.”
Russia’s ties with Germany were key to establishing ties with the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russia’s strategy in Europe. Russia has opened its economy to Western investment, established ties across the continent and sought to understand the internal workings of the EU bureaucracy. He established close business ties with Italy, France and later Hungary and built a political network that would help expand his influence in Europe. For Moscow, learning about European vulnerabilities was as important as building its economy and turning Russia into a stable economic power.
The Kremlin is also campaigning to join the World Trade Organization to establish deeper relationships with the world’s largest economic players. In the process, he took advantage of foreign investment in Russia and learned how the global economy works, building partnerships not only with Western economies but also with other economic powers. The only problem was that China, its main ally against the West, did not see the accelerated growth it had hoped for, and was still highly dependent on the US market, giving Beijing a limited ability to counter US interests in the world and forcing Russia to keep his focus on Europe.
The average Russian has seen an improvement in his standard of living under Putin. Life in the big Russian cities was similar to that in the West. However, when it became a major player in the energy market, Russia also increased its exposure to global economic cycles. The European economic crisis of 2010 shook Moscow. Russia’s economy as a whole remains fragile, and the gap between urban and rural areas remains dangerously large, potentially threatening Putin’s control.
At the same time, the West has proposed an attractive model that rivals Russia’s. It was not so much the growing Western influence in Russia’s buffer zone that worried the Kremlin, but the fact that ordinary Russians could look to Eastern Europe and see a better model for political organization and economic growth.
Then the pandemic struck. The Russian president clearly fears that the economic insecurity caused by COVID-19 could threaten his country’s economic security and stability. As the worst socio-economic consequences of the pandemic faded, action against the West became urgent. From the Kremlin’s point of view, this was a unique moment. The United States is trying to reduce its presence in Europe and instead focus on Indo-Pacific and domestic issues. In other words, from the Kremlin’s point of view, the transatlantic alliance and the European Union seem weak. Most importantly, Russian leaders believe that they have gained enough knowledge about the way the West works and can fight it effectively.
Preparing for war
Russia has been preparing to confront the West since at least the early 2000s. In addition to accumulating foreign reserves, Moscow is building trade blocs and deepening its relations with projects such as the Eurasian Economic Union. In Europe, this has lured Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas, which, as is clear today, has made it extremely difficult for Europe to cut off Russian energy imports. Switching from gas will require Europe to build new infrastructure – an expensive and time-consuming process.
The close German-Russian partnership also benefits the Kremlin’s strategy for Europe in other ways. To give a practical example, the EU had plans to make the Danube fully navigable by building additional canals, increasing Central Europe’s connection to the Black Sea. This would give Europe more leverage against Russia at a time when the war in Ukraine has forced the diversion of trade flows from the Black Sea to much more expensive land routes. Instead, positive relations with Moscow made the project seem unnecessary and it faded.
“It is no coincidence that since 2012, the first full year of Nord Stream 1, Europe has become much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian.”
It is no coincidence that since 2012, the first full year of Nord Stream 1, Europe has become much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian. Germany simply had no interest in carrying them out. It is also no coincidence that US-German relations have cooled during this time. The United States needed Germany to lead Europe, or at least maintain neutrality, to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Europe when the United States withdrew. The fact that Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012 has given it even more influence in the world economy.
Relations with senior EU politicians
It is also worth noting that the Kremlin is using personal relationships to increase its influence. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has been elected to lead Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream AG has also hired former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen as a consultant to speed up the licensing process in Finland. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was a board member of Delimobil, a Russian car-sharing service. Former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho was on the board of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank. Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern resigned from the board of the Russian state railway company in the first days of the war in Ukraine, while another former chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel remained on board the Russian Lukoil.
This is just a short list of top politicians, all of whom had at least some influence on their country’s foreign policy discussions. They have certainly been useful for Russia’s economic growth and the advancement of Russia’s economic strategy in Europe.
Close cooperation with Europeans over the past two decades has allowed Russia to learn what is important for the stability of their countries. It has also helped the Kremlin better understand its political agendas and support causes that work in its favor. For example, Russia has enthusiastically supported many green policies, such as Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear energy – which has led to greater dependence on Russian gas. And Russia openly supports populist parties across Europe and effectively uses information warfare, all in an attempt to destabilize and ultimately divide Europe.
Globally, Russia has close relations with traditional enemies and competitors in the West. Accession to the WTO has given it a stronger position on the global stage, which is used to promote the influence and interests of emerging global players, including the BRICS countries, which also include Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Although the results were modest, Russia promoted the group as an alternative to the West and continued to focus on building ties with China and India, establishing ties it hoped would withstand a potential confrontation with the West that we see unfolding today.
To counter the current sanctions, she sought help from China. The Eurasian Economic Union gives him a mandate to continue doing business with the world. At the same time, Russia’s presence in the Middle East and parts of Africa helps keep oil prices high – high enough to keep paying its bills. Influence in the Middle East and the Sahel, two highly volatile but resource-rich areas, also yields …
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