CHISINAU, Moldova – Before the war broke out in the neighborhood, Moldovans had big plans for their country.
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put Moldova, a former Soviet republic and one of Europe’s poorest nations, in an extremely vulnerable position, threatening its economic development, straining society with waves of refugees and raising existential fears of another Russian occupation.
The tremors of the war add another chapter to Moldova’s long and increasingly desperate efforts to wriggle out of Moscow’s clutches. In pursuit of this, she recently applied to join the European Union, but the prospect of receiving admission soon is slim.
“We are a fragile country in a fragile region,” Maya Sandu, Moldova’s president, said in an interview.
Moldovan fears rose again on Friday when a Russian general said his country’s military now plans to take over the entire southern coast of Ukraine. This will create a land bridge from Russia east to Transnistria, a heavily armed, breakaway region in eastern Moldova bordering Ukraine, which is controlled by Russia.
Mimi Castel, a 19th-century winery run by Adrian Trofim, in Bulboaca, Moldova, in April. The consequences of the war in Ukraine have had a severe impact on business. Credit … Christian Movilla for The New York Times
Whether Russia has the means to absorb such a large stretch of Ukrainian territory is debatable, especially in view of the huge losses its military suffered in the battle for Kyiv. But whether they are real or just an attempt to cause problems in the region, Moldovans take the general’s threat seriously.
The Moldovan government has long been nervous about Transnistria, a thin territory controlled by at least 12,000 separatists and Russian troops. Following the outbreak of the war, the Moldovan and Ukrainian militaries face additional concerns about whether Transnistrians will jump into battle and begin attacking Ukraine from the west. So far this has not happened.
Nestled between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is small – with less than three million people – and for centuries has been torn between larger powers: first the Ottomans and Russia, and now Europe and Russia. The topic is obviously Russia and Russia does not want to let it go.
The cellars in Mr. Trofim’s winery in April. He said almost half of his business depends on Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Credit … Christian Movilla for The New York Times
Moscow is suffocating more than 100 percent of Moldova’s energy supplies. And the Kremlin is constantly trying to stir up the many Russian-speakers in Moldova who are susceptible to its propaganda, especially in Transnistria.
This seems to have happened on Friday, when, according to Russian media, Major General Rustam Minekayev said: “Russian control over southern Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are cases of Russian-speaking people being suppressed.”
The Moldovan government immediately called on the Russian ambassador to complain about the general’s statement, saying it was “not only unacceptable but also unfounded” and had led to “increased tensions”.
For 49-year-old Sandu, the country’s first female president, this has been another obstacle in the dangerous path she has been trying to take since the crisis began.
Moldova has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and banned Moldovans from affixing pro-Russian symbols to their cars. At the same time, the country has not fully joined the European Union’s sanctions against Russia for fear of being cut off by Russian gas.
Moldovan President Maya Sandu at his office in Chisinau. “We are a fragile country in a fragile region,” she said. Credit … Christian Movilla for The New York Times
“No one said it would be easy,” said Sandu, 49, from her office at Stefan cel Mare, a major boulevard in the capital, Chisinau, that stretches past many huge Soviet-style office buildings. “But no one said it would be that difficult.”
The war was hard not only for her, but for almost everyone here. Before the war began, Adrian Trofim, whose family owns a 19th-century rural winery and resort cellar, thought he was finally resting after two years of fighting during the coronavirus pandemic. He was adding a wing to the hotel, creating a spa focused on wine-based treatments and preparing for sparkling wine production.
But now his operations are in jeopardy. Brandy worth a quarter of a million dollars, which he has to send to Belarus, is blocked in his warehouses. His regular Ukrainian customers can’t pay him, which costs him several hundred thousand dollars. And he can’t send his Chardonnay to China, one of its new markets, because the port of Odessa, Ukraine, which he uses for export, was closed as soon as the first bombs fell in February.
Moldovan police near Palanka, on the border with Ukraine, in April. The breakaway, pro-Russian state of Transnistria represents much of that border. Credit … Christian Movilla for the New York Times
“I don’t know what to do,” said Mr Trofim, who may soon have to lay off almost half of his staff. “Everything is frozen until we figure out how to live with this situation.
It may take some time. When the war in Ukraine began, Chisinau residents said they were awakened by the sounds of not-so-distant explosions. Then Ukrainian refugees began to enter – more than 400,000 arrived, Moldovan authorities said – putting a heavy strain on public services in a country with an average annual income of less than $ 6,000.
Basic commodity prices then rose as supply chains were disrupted. And business owners had to convince their employees, terrified that the war could spread to Moldova, not to flee the country, following the hundreds of thousands of Moldovans who have moved abroad over the past decade.
A small grocery store in Rogi, Moldova, in March. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, commodity prices have skyrocketed in Moldova and supply chains have been disrupted. Credit … Leticia Vancon for The New York Times
“We already considered it a high risk,” said Carmina Vicol, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Moldova. “We have just begun to persuade investors to try against us. Now everyone has backed off. “
Not everything is bad news. Some Ukrainian companies are considering moving to Moldova in search of a safer environment. And with the influx of all foreign dignitaries (and news teams), its international profile has risen, prompting the government last month to rebrand Moldova as a “small country with a big heart.”
Many Russians have discovered this great heart long ago. During the Soviet era, retired officers flocked to Moldova, attracted by nature, good food and the sun. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was ruled by pro-Russian elites who maintained strong ties with Moscow, especially in terms of energy.
Moldova gets all its gas from companies controlled by Russia. And although Moldovan leaders have been talking big about turning the country off Russian gas and getting energy from other countries such as Azerbaijan, Turkey and Romania, none of them can come close to what Russia provides at the moment.
Moldova relies on Russian companies for all its natural gas supplies, making it vulnerable to pressure from Moscow. Credit … Christian Movilla for the New York Times
And so Russia continues to use its influence on gas prices to push Moldova. Russia has hinted, for example, that it will cut prices if Moldova agrees to make concessions to Transnistria, which Moldova has refused.
Moldova’s double problems, energy and Transnistria, are interlinked. In the Soviet era, Moldova’s largest power plant and its two largest gas pumping stations were built in Transnistria.
“If you look at the map, it doesn’t make sense,” said Viktor Parlikov, an energy analyst and former civil servant. “It is built this way in case Moldova tries to follow its own path.
Transnistria has its own flag, full of Soviet-style sickle and hammer, and a separate identity from the rest of Moldova. Its roots go back to the 1920s, when the Soviet Union established a small republic in the same area before incorporating parts of it into the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic during World War II. Mr Parlikov said this was in line with the Soviet authorities ‘model of redrawing the republics’ borders to historical realities, creating potential for conflict.
The situation in Transnistria reflects that in Ukraine’s Donbass region, where Russian-backed separatists revolted after an anti-Russian uprising in 2014, launching a series of events that led to war. Transnistria also complicates Moldova’s bid to join the European Union.
Russian troops in March at the entrance to the village of Varnita, in Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova. Credit … Leticia Vancon for The New York Times
“We will be happy to be part of the EU,” said Sergei Diaconu, deputy interior minister. But, he added half-jokingly, Transnistria is a “big pain” that could discourage the EU from accepting Moldova.
Joining NATO would be an even higher order. Neutrality is enshrined in Moldova’s constitution, a remnant of the early 1990s, when it tried to stand on its own without opposing Russia. Moldovan leaders are now questioning the wisdom of this approach.
“If you ask me if neutrality will protect us, I don’t know,” said Sandu, the president. “It has not helped in the last three decades to persuade Russia to withdraw its troops from the country.
In the eyes of many Moldovans, the geopolitical rope that the country is forced to walk means that its future is intertwined with that of Russia. Mr. Trofim, the winemaker, for example, said that almost half of his …
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