If Macron’s victory is confirmed, he is likely to continue his reformist agenda.
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Frenchman Emmanuel Macron appears ready for a second term as president, with exit polls predicting he will easily defeat his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, in Sunday’s election.
Centrist Macron of La République En Marche looks set to win about 58.2% in the second and final round of voting, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, with Marin Le Pen of the nationalist and far-right National Rally party at around 41. 8%.
Immediately after the predictions, Le Pen talked to his supporters in Paris and accepted the defeat. She said the result was a “victory” for her political movement, and pointed to the parliamentary elections to be held in June.
“The French have shown a desire tonight for a strong counterweight against Emmanuel Macron, an opposition that will continue to defend and defend them,” she was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Despite Macron’s projected victory, the difference is a smaller difference between the two candidates compared to the 2017 election, when Macron won 66.1% of the vote.
Electoral apathy
The 2022 campaign was set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the crisis in the cost of living in France, growing support for the far left among the younger generations, and suggestions of widespread voter apathy. Turnout on Sunday was 2 percentage points lower than in the 2017 elections, according to the Interior Ministry.
At the beginning of the campaign, the 44-year-old Macron took advantage of his attitude and diplomatic efforts towards the Russia-Ukraine war. But that support dissipated in the days leading up to the first round of voting on April 10, as French citizens focused heavily on home affairs and rising inflation.
Marin Le Pen, who is now running for president of France three times, has chosen to distance himself from his previous rhetoric on the European Union and European integration and instead focus on the economic struggles of French voters.
Putin ties
However, as the second round of voting approaches, control over both individuals and their policies has intensified. In a two-hour televised debate Wednesday, Macron highlighted Le Pen’s previous ties to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, accusing her of being dependent on Moscow.
Macron said on Friday that Le Pen’s plans to ban Muslim women from wearing headscarves in public would provoke a “civil war”.
If Macron’s victory is confirmed, it will be the first French president in two decades to win a second term. He will look to continue his reformist agenda, recently pledging to help France reach full employment and change the country’s retirement age from 62 to 65.
Frederic Leroy, head of the cross-asset team at French fund manager Carmignac, said Macron’s clear victory was likely to reassure markets.
“In the short term, the main logical beneficiary of this election could be the euro, which was still flirting last Friday with two-year lows against the dollar,” he said in a note to a flash survey after the forecast.
“However, the negative aspect for the markets of these rather comfortable elections may come from the quick solution in favor of the Russian oil embargo, which would exacerbate inflationary pressures and the economic slowdown (stagflation scenario) in Europe,” he added.
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