Climate change will lead to the spread of thousands of new viruses among animal species by 2070 – and this is likely to increase the risk of infectious diseases that spread from animals to humans, according to a new study.
This is especially true for Africa and Asia, continents that have been hotspots for the spread of deadly diseases from humans to animals or vice versa over the past few decades, including influenza, HIV, Ebola and coronavirus.
Researchers who published their findings Thursday in the journal Nature used a model to study how more than 3,000 species of mammals could migrate and share viruses over the next 50 years if the world warmed by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Celsius). Fahrenheit), which a recent study show is possible.
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They found that the spread of the interspecific virus would occur more than 4,000 times in mammals alone. Birds and marine animals were not included in the study.
Researchers said not all viruses would spread to humans or become coronavirus-scale pandemics, but the number of interspecific viruses increased the risk of spreading to humans.
The study highlights two global crises – climate change and the spread of infectious diseases – as the world struggles to do both.
Previous research has looked at how deforestation, extinction and wildlife trade lead to the spread of disease between animals and humans, but there is less research on how climate change can affect this type of disease transmission, researchers said in a media briefing. on Wednesday.
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“We don’t talk much about climate in the context of zoonoses,” a disease that can be spread by animals to humans, said study co-author Colin Carlson, an assistant professor of biology at Georgetown University. “Our study brings together the two most pressing global crises we have.”
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Experts on climate change and infectious diseases have agreed that global warming is likely to increase the risk of new viruses.
Daniel R. Brooks, a biologist at the State Museum of the University of Nebraska and co-author of Stockholm’s Paradigm: Climate Change and Emerging Diseases, said the study recognizes the threat of climate change in terms of the growing risk of infectious diseases.
“This particular contribution is an extremely conservative assessment of the potential” spread of infectious diseases caused by climate change, Brooks said.
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Aaron Bernstein, a pediatrician and interim director of the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health’s Center for Climate, Health and Global Environment, said the study confirmed long-standing suspicions of the effects of warming on infectious diseases.
“It should be noted, in particular, that the study shows that these meetings may already be happening more frequently and in places close to many people,” Bernstein said.
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Co-author Gregory Alberry, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University, said that as climate-related infectious diseases are likely to occur, the world needs to do more to learn and prepare for it.
“It’s not preventable, even in the best case scenario of climate change,” Albury said.
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Carlson, who also co-authored the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said we need to reduce greenhouse gases and phase out fossil fuels to reduce the risk of spreading infectious diseases.
Jaron Brown, director of the Grassroots Global Justice Alliance’s climate justice group, said the study highlights climate injustice experienced by people living in African and Asian countries.
“African and Asian nations face the greatest threat from increased exposure to viruses, which once again illustrates how those on the front lines of the crisis have very often done the least to create climate change,” Brown said. .
© 2022 The Canadian Press
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