The Pentagon estimates that Russian forces are several days behind where they wanted to be in eastern Ukraine at the moment, according to a senior defense official.
The Russians expected to be further away in their goal of capturing Ukrainian troops in the east, and they believed that this would be achieved by now, according to Pentagon estimates. They are “nowhere near” to their goal of fully encircling Ukrainian forces, the official said.
Russian forces are making slow, uneven and growing progress in eastern and southern Ukraine, according to the official, in part because they are cautious about overtaking supply lines, as they did in northern Ukraine at the start of the invasion, and because of the effectiveness of Ukrainian resistance.
“They are not moving very fast,” the official said. “A few kilometers a day is the most they can handle.”
The Russians have already deployed 92 battalion tactical groups, usually consisting of 800 to 1,000 soldiers, in the battle in Ukraine. The official warned that while the Russians have a numerical advantage over the Ukrainians, the fighting in Donbass could be a long one, as both sides know the terrain and both sides use distant artillery in battle.
To the east, the Russians concentrated on moving from Izyum along three main axes – southwest to Dobropillya, a little southeast to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, and even further southeast to Liman. The Russians are also trying to push towards the estuary of the eastern city they control, Kremina.
About a dozen Russian battalion tactical groups have been in and around Mariupol, but some have begun moving north to the Zaporozhye region this week. The Russians continue to strike Mariupol from the air, indicating that they do not yet control the city.
The Russians are conducting limited offensives in the east at the same time as they are conducting what the Pentagon calls “shaping operations” to prepare for a larger offensive.
Russia initially invaded Ukraine on a number of axes and is now focusing on the smaller geographical area of Donbass, where Ukrainian troops have been fighting Russian-backed separatists since 2014. With the eastward shift, US and NATO allies have begun giving Ukraine more -Heavy weapons such as artillery before an expected long battle.
So far, more than 60 percent of the 90 howitzers provided by the United States have fallen into Ukrainian hands, according to the Pentagon. After the weapons entered Ukraine, the United States did not track them, so it is unclear whether the howitzer artillery guns have yet reached the front line in the Donbass region.
Howitzers are new to the Ukrainian armed forces and require some training. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Friday that some Ukrainians are receiving training in howitzers and other systems at U.S. military installations in Germany.
One hundred and sixty members of the Florida National Guard trained Ukrainian troops in Ukraine before leaving in early February before the invasion, and they are now conducting most of the training of the systems, according to Kirby. All training takes place outside Ukraine.
There were emotional moments between the guards and some of the Ukrainian soldiers during their recent reunion because of the ties established before the invasion, Kirby said.
The artillery weapons and other equipment announced in the latest aid packages are aimed at what the Ukrainians wanted, in anticipation of an intense battle in the east.
More Eleanor Watson
CBS News reporter covering the Pentagon.
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