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While Europe has vowed to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels in response to arming Moscow with energy supplies, climate advocates hope it could spur a faster transition to renewable energy. However, experts say Europe’s immediate priority is to keep the lights on, and this may require relying on dirtier energy sources, at least in the short term.
The European Union was already preparing for Russia’s escalation tactics when state energy giant Gazprom announced it would cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in April unless they start paying for it in rubles.
Just a month earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine prompted the EU to do so run a road map to become independent of Russian fuels “long before 2030”. At the time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was committed to speeding up the transition to clean energy and diversifying gas supplies to Europe by next winter.
Since then, rising energy prices and Moscow’s use of fossil fuel supplies to put pressure on Ukraine’s allies have only further crystallized Europe’s need to find alternative sources – and quickly.
Von der Layen now warns that “the era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end” and released a proposal to retaliate against the Kremlin by phasing out Russian crude oil.
WATCH The EU proposes a total ban on Russian oil, but notes that “it will not be easy”:
The EU is proposing a total ban on Russian oil in a new round of sanctions
The head of the European Union has proposed a phased oil embargo against Russia, as well as sanctions against its top bank and a ban on Russian broadcasters from Europe. 4:09
Dealing with “multiple crises at once”
The energy security crisis will almost certainly push the EU towards a faster transition to sustainable energy sources in the long run, according to Chris Bataille, an associate researcher at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, based in the Paris-based think tank.
“It simply came to our notice then [to renewables]”Batai said.
This was announced by the International Energy Agency plan of 10 pointsoutlining how the EU could reduce Russian gas imports by more than a third in a year if it accelerates the implementation of new wind and solar projects, accelerates the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps and replaces Russian gas supplies with alternative sources, among other measures.
But Bataille notes that this is not a one-night stand. Europe may have to resort to some “dirty alternatives” in the short term as it is weaned off Russian fossil fuels, he said.
“Unfortunately, we can see more coal burning just to maintain power plants,” Batay said, adding that older nuclear power plants could also stay online longer than originally planned.
Eddie Perez, international climate diplomacy manager at Climate Action Network Canada, said that while “war never leads to perfect results”, he believes the situation created by Russia has revealed something important.
“I think what the war has helped us realize is our vulnerability. How vulnerable we are to fossil fuel economy.
Perez said the ongoing climate crisis, combined with the war’s energy security crisis, only underscores the need to decarbonise the energy network.
“We can deal with many crises at once,” he said.
Europe faces a crossroads: the status quo against renewable energy
The general consensus between Bataille and other political experts is that the European Union’s next steps are likely to come in two main phases. In the short term, there is an urgent demand to replace Russian energy imports to avoid a full supply crisis overshadowed by Moscow’s escalation.
In the long term, the EU leadership recognizes the urgent need to move to renewable and cleaner energy sources to tackle climate change. Bataille said a possible shift to more diverse and mainly renewable energy sources will have a stabilizing effect on global economies, as it will help eliminate the highly volatile costs of importing fossil fuels.
However, renewable energy costs large capital investments and requires time to build new infrastructure.
So in the short term, Bataille said Europe would be “in a very difficult position over the next few years” as it seeks to reduce its dependence on cheap Russian bulk fuel.
The European Union imports about 90% of its natural gas, and Russia has provided about 45% of these imports, as well as about 25% of oil imports, according to the latest EU data.
As a substitute, the EU considers the supply of liquefied natural gas from other countries, including Algeria, Qatar and the United States. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is seeking to quickly build new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals as it deviates from Russia’s supplies.
Climate policy experts warn that Europe’s responses to its immediate energy needs should not further strengthen the status quo.
There is a line that needs to be drawn, Perez said, between Europe, which relies on other sources of natural gas to solve its current supply crisis, and the actual expansion of the natural gas industry and infrastructure.
“We need to start using our agency and our ability to make good choices, to change in a deliberate way,” said Elizabeth Gilmore, lead author of one of the working groups on the latest IPCC report and senior scientific adviser on science and technology at Environment. and Climate Change Canada.
“If not, these changes will be imposed on us.”
Reduce fossil fuels “as fast as we can”
The situation is developing against the background of the impending climate catastrophe.
The world has reached its point now or never if it wants to avoid 1.5C warming above pre-industrial levels, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In its latest update, the IPCC made it clear that in order to avoid the future of serious climate disturbances and extreme weather conditions, the world must reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
“As a long-term strategy, especially where we are now, we have moved to a point where we need to reduce the use of all hydrocarbons,” Gilmore said.
“We are looking for ways to decarbonise deeply. That means reducing all forms of fossil fuels as fast as we can.”
The ships are loaded and unloaded in the port of Brunsbüttel, Germany, on March 1. European governments are collecting more liquid gas, which could come by ship instead of by pipeline from Russia, as countries struggle to reduce dependence on Russia. (Frank Molter / dpa / Associated Press)
Bataille, who was also the lead author of the latest IPCC report, agreed. “Europe needs to go to net zero.” He said the EU is already one of the most ambitious jurisdictions in terms of climate policy, and countries are likely to look for many sources as part of this transition, including wind, solar and nuclear.
How late is it too late?
Batay said he believes Europe will be able to completely abandon its dependence on Russian fossil fuels over the next three to five years. But the complete decarbonisation of the energy sector will take much longer.
When pressed to answer how late it was too late, Gilmore said it was impossible to give a specific timeline.
“Nothing we can give you scientifically will tell you that in five years plus a day it’s too late,” she said.
A man refills his car at a gas station in Sofia, Bulgaria, on April 21. Rising energy prices in Europe are testing the resolve of people caught between dependence on cheap Russian energy and their opposition to Moscow’s war in Ukraine. (Valentina Petrova / Associated Press)
Jonathan Stern, founder of the Oxford Institute for Energy Research’s gas research program, said it was important for leaders to assess the impact on citizens as well. He said leaders need to consider how much more immediate, upfront costs can be borne by both governments and citizens, especially in the context of the COVID-19 recovery.
“The faster the transition, the greater the immediate costs,” Stern said.
“If Russia cuts off Europe, then the negative effects can be blamed on Putin. But if European governments decide to turn off Russia’s energy, voters are likely to blame politicians,” he said.
Although he noted that the long-term costs of climate damage will be reduced through a faster transition to renewables.
The lesson here, Batay said, is that relying so heavily on a country’s energy supply is a risky bet.
“This was not healthy for Russia because it essentially turned it into an autocratic five-nation state, and it was not healthy for Europe to depend on just one major supplier of such cheap, bulk fossil fuels,” he said.
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