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US employers added 428,000 jobs in April, a ceiling for a year of solid growth, adding more fuel to the already stable recovery. Unemployment remains stable at a pandemic low of 3.6 percent, the labor ministry said on Friday.
The labor market has added more than 6.5 million jobs over the past year and is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels this summer, although economists say there are signs that this record series of rising employment is starting to decline. The number of people working or looking for work, for example, fell by 363,000 in April after six months of profit. And the growth rate of the average wage slowed slightly to 0.3% from 0.4% a month earlier.
“It’s been a huge job recovery, but this kind of growth can’t go on forever, especially now that unemployment is as low as it is,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at the Bank of the West in San Francisco. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to find people to return to the labor market, even if you pay higher wages.
In April, the biggest gains were in leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, as businesses tried to keep up with the constant consumer demand for goods and services.
Rapid labor market recovery has been a cornerstone of the pandemic recovery and a major political asset for the Biden administration, although the workforce remains depressed by a number of factors, including retirement and care. Employers posted a record 11.5 million jobs in March, almost double the number of jobseekers, according to a Labor Ministry report released earlier this week.
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This sustained force has enabled the Federal Reserve to take aggressive action to curb inflation. The central bank raised its base rate this week by half a percentage point, the sharpest increase since 2000, hoping to cool the economy without plunging it into recession.
“We must do everything we can to restore stable prices as quickly and efficiently as possible,” Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday. “We think we have a good chance of doing so without a significant increase in unemployment or a really sharp slowdown.”
However, there are signs of growing uncertainty. The US economy contracted unexpectedly in early 2022, largely due to growing trade gaps and declining stock purchases. Inflation remains at its peak for 40 years. And stock market prices – which jumped to records during the pandemic – have fallen in the past week amid renewed fears of a possible recession this or next year.
“We are currently at a strange stage in the cycle, when it is not entirely clear in which direction things are going,” said Liz Ann Saunders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Obviously, the market environment is turbulent and we are starting to see some easing in different ways.”
Large companies, including Wells Fargo, have begun laying off workers in recent weeks, and others, including Amazon, have said they have overstaffing, further blurring the job prospects. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.) Overall, U.S. employers announced more than 24,000 job cuts in April, up 14 percent from the previous month, according to data released this week by executive company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The labor market still lacks 1.2 million pre-pandemic jobs, although several sectors have offset their recent losses. Transport and warehousing, for example, as well as professional and business services, have about 700,000 more employees than in February 2020.
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Restaurants, bars and hotels are struggling to catch up after widespread cuts at the start of the pandemic. The leisure and hotel industry is rapidly adding jobs, although it is still shrinking by 1.4 million jobs, or 8.5 percent of its workforce, from pre-pandemic levels.
“The recreation and hospitality sector has recovered, but there has been some delay. Wages are not as high as in other industries and people are reluctant to return to and stay in these jobs, “said Nela Richardson, chief economist at the ADP Research Institute. “There you see both the biggest vacancies and the highest turnover in terms of departures.”
Lou Salame, who owns 10 sandwich shops in Jacksonville, Florida, says he can’t find enough workers to keep his business running smoothly.
He started closing two hours earlier, at 6 pm, and often has to close parts of his restaurants even earlier if he lacks staff. He raised salaries to about $ 12.50 an hour and began offering weekly and monthly bonuses to his staff of 150, but still lacks about 50 workers.
“It is extremely difficult to find help and even harder to keep help,” said Salame, who owns Sheik Sandwiches and Subs. “Pay is high at all times. We offer advantages and bonuses, but honestly it did not affect. It just feels impossible. ”
Millions retired early during the pandemic. Many of them are now returning to work, new data show.
But for many workers, a tight labor market continues to be beneficial.
Leah Cush, who lives near Chicago, recently left her 11-year job in the radio industry for a position in a digital marketing firm. It all happened very quickly: Kush applied in early April, was interviewed a week later and received a job offer less than 24 hours later.
“It was so easy that I said to myself, ‘Wow, that had to be it,'” the 41-year-old said. “I feel alive again.”
Kush earns 33 percent more than her last job, where she has not been promoted in eight years.
“There was no extra pay, but they kept piling things up on my plate,” she said. “Finally, in January, I said, ‘I need to find something new.’ And I’m so glad I did.”
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