BRUSSELS – Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that halting NATO enlargement has helped him invade Ukraine. But on Thursday, Finland announced its unequivocal intention to join, not only changing Putin’s plan, but putting the newest future member of the alliance on Russia’s northern doorstep.
Finland’s leaders’ declaration that they will join NATO – with expectations that neighboring Sweden will soon do the same – could now change the strategic balance in Europe that has prevailed for decades. This is the latest example of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 11 weeks ago has backfired on Mr Putin’s intentions.
Russia has reacted angrily, with Mr Putin’s chief spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov saying adding Finland and Sweden to NATO would not make Europe safer. Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, appears to have gone further, saying in an interview with a British news site on Twitter that as NATO members the two Scandinavian countries “become part of the enemy and take all risks.”
Finland, long known for such irreconcilable non-alignment that “Finnishization” has become synonymous with neutrality, has signaled that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 is giving Finns a reason to join NATO. But Thursday was the first time Finnish leaders have said publicly that they definitely intend to join, making it almost certain that Russia will share an 810-mile border with a NATO country.
The addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO carries significant risks of raising the prospects for war between Russia and the West, according to the alliance’s basic principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Finnish soldiers during a military exercise in Niinisalo, Finland, last week. Credit … Alessandro Rampazo / Agence France-Presse – Getty Images
But Finnish leaders, President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin, said “NATO membership will strengthen Finland’s security”, adding that “as a NATO member, Finland will strengthen the entire defense alliance”.
Mr Putin suggested a number of reasons for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it was intended in part to block NATO’s eastern enlargement and was based on what he apparently thought would be a capricious European response. Instead, the invasion united the West and helped isolate Moscow.
With the possible redrawing of Europe’s security borders, Western officials have also focused on changing Europe’s economic infrastructure by taking steps to establish new transport routes from Ukraine, which is under Russia’s embargo. Russia, meanwhile, has become further ostracized by the global economy, as Siemens, the German electronics giant, became the last company to withdraw from Russia, leaving business there after 170 years.
The European Union on Thursday announced a set of measures to facilitate Ukraine’s exports of blocked food, mainly grain and oilseeds, in a bid to ease tensions over the war on Ukraine’s economy and prevent impending global food shortages.
Russia’s navy has blocked exports from Ukraine, the world’s leading supplier of wheat, corn and sunflower oil before the invasion, to the country’s Black Sea ports. The long-term goal of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, is to establish new transport routes from Ukraine to Europe, circumventing Russia’s blockade by using Polish ports – although it may take months, if not years, to create new routes.
A motorcyclist passing an unexploded Russian rocket near Kukhari, northwest of Kyiv, on Thursday. Credit … David Gutenfelder for The New York Times
On the ground in Ukraine, where Russian invaders still face strong resistance from Western-armed Ukrainian forces and the prospect of a protracted war, the Kremlin has redeployed troops to bolster its territorial gains in Donbas, the eastern region where the fighting is taking place. the most ferocious.
Ukrainian and Western officials say Russia is withdrawing forces from Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, where it is losing territory – a retreat that the British Defense Ministry on Thursday described as “tacit recognition of Russia’s inability to take over key Ukrainian cities. they expected limited resistance from the population. “
In contrast, in the Luhansk and Donetsk districts, which together make up Donbass, the Russians now control about 80 percent of the territory. In Luhansk, where Russian shelling rarely weakens, “the situation has deteriorated significantly” in recent days, according to regional governor Sergei Haidai.
“The Russians are destroying everything in their path,” Mr Haidai said in a telegram on Thursday. “Most of the critical infrastructure will have to be rebuilt,” he said, adding that there was no connection to electricity, water, gas or mobile phones in the region, where most residents had fled.
Russia’s withdrawal from Kharkov is one of the biggest setbacks Moscow has faced since withdrawing from areas near Kyiv, the capital – where the cost of Russian occupation became clearer on Thursday.
The bodies of more than 1,000 civilians have been found in areas north of Kyiv that have been occupied by Russian forces, UN human rights chief Michel Bachelet said on Thursday. They included several hundred recently executed and others who were shot by snipers, Ms Bachelet said.
Valentina Nechiporenko, 77, mourned the grave of her son Ruslan at his funeral in Bucha, Ukraine, last month. He was killed by Russian forces in March. Credit … Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
“The numbers will continue to rise,” Ms Bachelet said at a special session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, the second in two weeks, focusing on abuses uncovered by investigators in Bucha, Irpin and other suburbs. Kyiv, which were captured by Russian forces in the early stages of the invasion. Russia has denied committing atrocities in Ukraine.
The announcement of Finnish leaders to apply for NATO membership was highly anticipated. Public opinion in Finland has changed significantly in favor of joining the alliance, from 20 percent six months ago to almost 80 percent now, especially if Sweden, Finland’s strategic partner and also non-military, also joins.
“Finland must apply for NATO membership immediately,” a statement from Finnish leaders said. “We hope that the national steps that are still needed to make this decision will be taken quickly in the next few days.
Parliamentary debate and a vote were expected on Monday.
The debate in Sweden is less advanced than in Finland, but Sweden is also moving towards applying to join NATO, perhaps as early as next week.
Mr Putin described NATO’s proliferation to the east in Russia’s sphere of influence, including in the former Soviet Union’s borders, as a national threat. He used Ukraine’s desire to join the alliance to justify invading the country, although Western officials have repeatedly said the possibility of Ukrainian membership remains slim.
One reason is that NATO is unlikely to offer membership to a country embroiled in war.
Swedish soldiers during training on the island of Gotland, Sweden, on Wednesday. Credit … Sergei Ponomarev for The New York Times
If Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, the alliance will be obliged to defend it against Russia and other opponents, in accordance with the application of NATO Article 5, that an attack on one member is an attack on the whole alliance.
Even without geopolitical risks, Ukraine, a former Soviet republic struggling with endemic corruption since independence, would have struggled to meet several of the requirements to join NATO, including the need to demonstrate commitment to the rule of law.
Sweden and Finland, in contrast, have evolved over decades into vibrant and healthy liberal democracies.
However, NATO members will have to act if Finland and Sweden are attacked by Russia or others, which increases the risk of a direct confrontation between the nuclear powers.
Mr Putin is likely to try to garner support for the invasion of Ukraine by presenting the actions of Finland and Sweden as new evidence that NATO is becoming increasingly hostile.
If Finland and Sweden apply, they are expected to be approved, although NATO officials are publicly discreet, saying only that the alliance has an open door policy and any country wishing to join can request an invitation. Still, even a quick application process could take a year, raising fears that both countries will be vulnerable to Russia while out of the alliance.
In addition to a long border, Finland shares a complex, violent history with Russia. The Finns repulsed the Soviet invasion in 1939-40 in the so-called Winter War.
Smoke rises over the village of Velika Komishuvaha, Ukraine, on the front lines of fighting with Russian forces in the Kharkiv region on Thursday. Credit … Lincy Addario for The New York Times
The Finns eventually lost, ceded part of their territory, and agreed to remain formally neutral during the Cold War, but their ability to temporarily hold the Soviet Union became a focal point of Finnish pride.
Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, Finland joined the European Union in 1992, becoming a member in 1995, while remaining non-military and working with Moscow.
Finland retained its military spending and significant armed forces. Finland joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace program with Sweden in 1994 and is moving closer to the alliance without joining it.
Stephen Erlanger reports from Brussels and Norimitsu Onishi from Paris. The report was provided by Cora Engelbrecht from London, Nick Cumming-Bruce from Geneva, Ivan Nechepurenko from Tbilisi, Georgia, …
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