When Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives took control of the province in 2018, much of the credit for their victory went to the unpopular leader of the former liberal government.
“The PC party didn’t win because of Doug Ford. The PC party won despite Doug Ford. They won because [former Ontario premier] Kathleen Winn, “said Greg Lyle, a veteran of the poll and president of the Innovative Research Group.
Now, in an ongoing poll showing that the Tories are in the lead as Ontario residents prepare to vote on June 2, Lyle said that “the amount of victory we see at the moment that may not continue is due to him. “
In fact, unlike his first two years in office, where he was assigned responsibility, says David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.
“Doug Ford went from the least popular prime minister in Ontario before the pandemic, to something in the middle, so far, according to our poll, he is the most popular [provincial] a leader in the province, “Koleto said.
“Today, there is no doubt that he is an asset in which a significant number of people who do not normally vote for the Conservatives – if these trends continue – are likely to vote for the Conservatives because Doug Ford is the party’s leader, not yet,” Koleto said. .
Moved from the pandemic
This does not mean that Ford is loved throughout the province or that there are no significant number of ill-wishers. There are still a large number of voters in Ontario who do not support the PC leader – many who may still be angry at his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. However, there are those who praise it, analysts say, and more importantly for Ford, they have since moved from the pandemic to other issues.
Ford reacts with his wife Carla, who left after winning the election in the province of Ontario to become prime minister in Toronto on June 7, 2018 (Nathan Denette / The Canadian Press)
As most people in Ontario are vaccinated and cases are declining – and perhaps many have resigned themselves to living with COVID-19 – “people have short memories. “Somehow we went through the pandemic collectively,” Koleto said.
“So while he was making decisions all the time or doing things that really upset a lot of people, at the end of the day I think people, even in our study, say he did a good job managing the pandemic. That was not disqualification for enough people. “
Instead, the electorate now sees “a world in which the cost of living, inflation and interest rates do create, in my opinion, a significant degree of concern for the people,” Koleto said.
“Doug Ford and computers – when we asked people who you think is the best at these things – they are far ahead.”
Final debate
As the four main leaders of political parties prepare to clash on Monday night in their last debate, CBC’s own Poll Tracker has the computers on track to form another majority government. But the situation that Ford and his party are in now is a little over a year ago.
Initially, Ford, like many other leaders, saw this popularity rise in the first months of the pandemic. But in the end, the Tories were criticized for imposing too many restrictions on some, too few on others, and accused of having no plan.
In April last year, during the third wave of the pandemic, Ford launched a series of unpopular policy initiatives that included new police powers and the closure of playgrounds. Following a public outcry, these policies were reversed, but they helped fuel the story of a pointless government.
Studies show that Ford’s popularity has risen and fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Chris Young / Canadian Press)
The impact was immediate. Lyle’s Innovative Research Group found that satisfaction with the government’s response to the pandemic had fallen by five points before and after the announcement of the new restrictions, and that Ford’s personal data had fallen.
In fact, Lyle himself wrote an article at the time entitled: Is This the Beginning of the End for Doug Ford?
“Doug Ford has gone from a trifle of his party to an asset for his party, and now he’s on his way back to being a drag,” he wrote.
“Almost everyone who is likely to vote in the next election is now watching Doug Ford, and most of them don’t like what they see.”
However, Ford has recovered, in part by offering a public apology for some of the measures, Lyle said.
Parents disappointed
As its numbers slowly increased, they hit another hurdle in January as the government appears to be struggling to find the right balance in blocking measures. Many parents were disappointed with the closure of schools, while Ontario residents condemned the lack of rapid tests for COVID-19.
But once again, Ford has managed to turn around and recover, with Lyle’s poll showing that many Ontario residents believe the government’s changes to public health restrictions simply reflect the evolving nature of the coronavirus.
“It’s important to understand that when it comes to issues and events, society sees them as tests of character, not exams for politics,” he said. “It’s important not just to do well, but to have good intentions. And enough Ontario people think Ford has done its best for the right reasons to be re-elected.”
Lyle believes Ford deserved credit for not being stubborn or ideologically committed to a political path.
“A lot of politicians, after making a change, then they would feel they have to stick to it. Until he goes, well, well, you didn’t like that either. Well, we’ll change again,” Lyle said.
“A lot of people would say, well, that just proves that he didn’t really know what he was doing and swinging from one position to another. Yes, but a critical number of voters say, well, that shows that this person is listening. he cares what I think. “
A more moderate politician
Lydia Millan, a professor of political science at Windsor University and a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute, said Ford has also managed to present himself as a much more moderate politician than some might have expected.
“They thought he would be a conservative prime minister, but he was nothing like that,” she said. “The latest budget is the biggest we’ve ever had.
Ontario Liberal Party leader Stephen Del Duca made a point during the Northern Ontario Federation of Debates debate at the Capitol Center in North Bay, Ontario, on May 10, while PC leader Doug Ford, NDP leader Andrea Horvath and NDP leader Greens Mike Schreiner. (Gino Donato / Canadian Press)
“And he has actually shown that he knows how to cooperate with the federal liberal government,” Miljan said. “He has a much better temperament than people would probably deserve.”
Kate Harrison, vice president of public relations firm Summa Strategies, said Ford is also taking advantage of the weak opposition. She said people had already had a chance to take a good look at NDP leader Andrea Horvat to see if she was the right alternative, “and the poll shows they are not biting this time.”
As for Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca, “No one really thinks there will be a surprise victory from behind at this stage,” she said.
Abacus Data’s Coletto said their poll shows that most Ontario residents believe their lives – including the quality of education and health care – will either not change or will be better if Ford is re-elected.
“And for me, this is an important indicator that opposition parties have not instilled in the minds of enough people a fear of a re-elected Doug Ford,” he said.
In addition, Ford’s success in retail should not be overlooked, said Millan of the University of Windsor. Small initiatives, such as sending checks to Ontario residents to renew their license plate stickers, are a long way off, she said.
“I think one of the risks that other politicians have, especially on the left, is that they denigrate this and … they say it’s dementia. But that loses votes.
Ford also seems to be succeeding in convincing voters that he is the best leader in creating opportunities for the struggling middle class, Lyle said – and that when people are asked which leader is most likely to bring about change in their favor, Ford is winning on this.
“This is the gradual advantage he is giving the Tories in this election campaign,” Lyle said. “I have been observing or involved in politics since 1981, and I cannot name another leader who has been prime minister for four years and has managed to run as the best in terms of change.”
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