Democrats are preparing for a tough battle in Georgia, where important high-level races are scheduled to test coalition resilience and organize efforts that spurred Democrat victories in the state less than two years ago.
With Stacey Abrams running unquestionably for the Democratic nomination for governor and senator Rafael Warnock (D-Ga.), Facing only nominal opposition in Tuesday’s primary, the party is already turning its attention to the November general election.
But unlike in recent years, when Democrats made steep gains driven by aggressive efforts to mobilize voters and oppose former President Trump, they face a much darker political environment in 2022 that threatens to undermine the party’s hopes to strengthen its position in Georgia. .
“I think the thing that is really unfortunate, but we will still have to live with it, is that everything is nationalized at the moment,” said a Democratic strategist. “The Democrats did a really good job of putting the work in Georgia and it paid off and it can pay off again. But I think we also need to be realistic about what we are facing. “
Abrams, a former minority leader in the U.S. Senate who was once considered a possible candidate for President Biden, was 55,000 votes ahead of his victory over Gov. Brian Kemp in 2018, while Warnock successfully ousted former Sen. Kelly Loffler (R-Ga. ) in a one-on-two run-off in Georgia last year that helped Democrats regain a Senate majority.
The victory of Warnock, as well as that of Sen. John Osoff (D-Ga.), Who defeated former Senator David Purdue (R-Ga.) In a simultaneous run-off election, came after Biden’s victory in Georgia’s 2020 presidential election.
This year, however, Abrams and Warnock are at risk of being swept away by the brutal political winds that threaten Democrats nationally.
Biden’s approval rating is deep underwater; An Associated Press / NORC poll released on Friday found that only 39 percent of adults in the United States approve of his work. At the same time, Americans are overwhelmed by concerns about rising inflation, soaring gas prices and rising crime.
Then there is the historical reality that the ruling party almost always loses seats in Congress in by-elections.
“You have to have good candidates, you have to have a good amount of money, and you have to have a good environment,” said Jay Williams, a Georgia-based Republican strategist. “They may have two of them, but the last one – well, I don’t see any kind of momentum for Democrats right now, especially after the last few years.
Georgia is scheduled to hold primary elections on Tuesday, although general elections are already under way. Kemp seems ready to defeat Perdue in the Republican gubernatorial race, despite Trump’s efforts to send him to the primary, preparing him for a possible rematch against Abrams in November.
Similarly, former NFL player Herschel Walker, whom Trump also backed, is a big favorite to win the Republican Senate.
In anticipation of this match, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign (DSCC) has already set aside $ 7 million for fall advertising reservations in an attempt to protect Warnock, while his Republican counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), pulled out $ 9.5 million in advertising. reservations in the state.
Georgia’s Democrats, meanwhile, already see Kemp as the main target in the gubernatorial race and are planning a three-step plan of attack to take advantage of his signing of a so-called constitutional carrying law that allows residents to carry firearms without permission. to expand Medicaid and its efforts to restrict access to abortion in Georgia.
On Friday, the Democratic Party of Georgia unveiled a new ad accusing Kemp of lifting COVID-19 restrictions too quickly and “making it easier for criminals to carry guns – just to succumb to the far right.”
Democrats also say that if Kemp wins the nomination, he could fight to boost the support of Trump’s loyalists, potentially jeopardizing his chances of winning a second term in November.
“Even if Kemp survives and there is no runoff, he will suffer lasting damage from these primary elections, especially from Trump’s attacks, and I think he will really fight to consolidate Republican voters,” said a Democrat official.
Abrams, in particular, seeks to make reproductive rights a central theme of his campaign. Following the expiration of a draft ruling showing that the Supreme Court could be ready to overturn Rowe v. Wade earlier this month, Abrams gave up raising money for his campaign and instead began asking for donations for a handful of rights groups. abortion in Georgia.
She also vowed to veto any attempt to ban abortions in Georgia if she is elected governor in November.
But unlike the last time Abrams and Warnock were on the ballot, Democrats will be missing a key foil: Trump. While the former president remains an active force in Republican politics since leaving office early last year, there are questions about how effective an instrument of the campaign he will remain for Democrats now that they control the levers of power in Washington.
“I don’t think we should be able to generate our own excitement without Trump on the ballot,” said Anjouan Sewright, a pro-democracy strategist close to the people in Abrams’ orbit. “I have no doubt that the former president gave people a reason to vote against something and at the same time vote for us. This time we have to give them a reason to vote for us and with us at the same time. “
Williams, a Republican strategist, said it could be especially difficult for Democrats to tie Kemp to Trump. A former ally of the former president, Kemp has become one of Trump’s main targets in the interim after rejecting efforts to undo his loss in Georgia’s 2020 presidential election.
“In Kemp’s case, you can’t even hang Trump around him because he’s Trump’s number one public enemy,” Williams said. “All the typical instruments they would have available are not available to them in this competition.”
The decisive factor in Georgia, according to strategists on both sides of the aisle, will be each party’s ability to reveal its constituencies.
The state has already recorded record turnout in early voting. As of Thursday, more than 710,000 Georgians had voted in the primary, according to the Georgian Secretary of State’s office. At the same time in 2020, this number is just over 263,000.
Republicans’ early turnout has so far outpaced that of Democrats, although Democrats have fewer competitive primary elections on Tuesday.
However, Democrats are aware of the obstacles they face this year. An early poll in the Abrams-Kemp match shows that the incumbent Republican president is leading the race. An April poll by The Hill and Emerson College found that Kemp had a 5-point advantage over Abrams.
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The same poll found that Warnock lagged behind Walker by 4 percentage points.
For Democrats, the stakes in Georgia’s midterm elections are perhaps as symbolic as they are practical. While Republicans need a net profit from just one Senate seat to regain control of the upper house, the former Red State is also a success story for Democrats, many of whom see it as their most important victory in 2020.
“If it weren’t for Georgia, I don’t think the tectonic plates in that country would have shifted the way they did,” Sewright said. “All the things we have managed to do in this country are the result of Georgia.”
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