Substitute while the actions of the article are loading
Hurricane warnings are in effect in the Mexican state of Oaxaca, where the rapidly growing Hurricane Agatha is expected to reach land on Monday near the city of Mazunte.
The National Hurricane Center warns that the storm could lead to “dangerous” coastal floods and “life-threatening hurricane-force winds” near where it reaches land. He also warns that “life-threatening sudden floods and mudslides” are possible as the storm crosses southern Mexico, with mountainous terrain likely to see up to 20 inches of rain.
Agatha is the first storm named in the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic basin in 2022, which portends an impending increase in tropical storm activity in the summer.
The escalating storm is also likely to become problematic in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center in Miami estimate a 30 percent chance of a possible reorganization.
Agatha turned into a hurricane at 8 a.m. Eastern time on Sunday. A hurricane warning is in effect between Salina Cruz and Lagunas de Chacaua, Mexico, with hurricane clocks and tropical storm warnings covering sections of the coastline on both sides.
At 11 a.m., the Hurricane Center said the storm was “intensifying rapidly” and peak winds reached 85 miles per hour.
Agatha was about 200 miles off the coast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, on Sunday morning, where conditions are favorable for further intensification of the storm. The storm is spreading over hot water – helping to feed the storm – and there are no hostile winds from above, according to the Hurricane Center.
The Hurricane Center predicts the storm will reach land on Monday night with maximum strong winds of 110 mph – or as a Category 2 high-end hurricane. The most intense winds will affect a small region of the coastline east of the center when the storm comes ashore, where serious damage is possible.
Tropical winds, capable of causing minor damage, could start off the coast in the hurricane warning zone late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical storm winds extend about 80 miles from the center of the storm.
Agatha will also generate a significant ocean tide or storm-induced rise in water over normally dry land, which could flood coastal communities. The biggest tide is expected near and just east of where the storm reaches the mainland. Big and destructive waves will accompany the wave.
Heavy rainfall will be more worrying for inland areas, especially in higher terrains. Widespread rain of 10 to 16 inches is forecast for Oaxaca, with localized amounts of up to 20 inches in high terrain. This could cause landslides and flash floods, potentially isolating more rural communities. A total of 5 to 10 inches with several 15-inch sums is likely in the state of Chiapas.
According to Philipp Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at the State University of Colorado, Agatha is the earliest hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 2015. Andres also reached the hurricane on May 29 of that year.
Agatha is likely to become only the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific to reach land in May. If it crosses the coast with maximum strong winds of at least 100 mph (the current forecast is for winds of 110 mph), it will be the strongest storm to hit the land so early this season in the Eastern Pacific, writes Jeff Masters , meteorologist and hurricane specialist for Yale Climate Connections.
In the event that Agatha hits Mexico as a major Category 3 hurricane, this will be the first of May.
Possible reconstruction of the bay
Agatha is likely to disintegrate quickly after moving away from her ocean heat source earlier this week. It will discharge most of its moisture, which is no longer fed by heating from below. By Tuesday, he will be a shell from his previous self.
The residual rotation of the storm can then meander through Mexico and appear in the Gulf, somewhere in the Gulf of Campeche, in the middle or later of this week. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 30 percent chance of rebuilding as the broad low pressure reunites.
Water temperatures are mild enough to keep the organization low pressure; whether it is able to consolidate and organize is more a matter of winds from the upper atmosphere, which could initially be hostile to development. They can relax a bit on Thursdays and Fridays, potentially allowing for a small window of opportunity.
2 a.m. EDT May 29: A wide low-pressure area could form around mid-week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system currently has little chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. More: pic.twitter.com/EWUcxGcS2m
– National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 29, 2022
Residents of the Gulf Coast must monitor this system.
The convention dictates that if Agatha’s central whirlwind remains intact when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will retain its name. This has happened before – Hurricane Otto moved from the Caribbean through Costa Rica and Nicaragua before appearing over the Pacific Ocean as a tropical storm in November 2016. It reached land as Category 3, but kept its name even after entering in a new ocean basin.
If the whirlwind dissipates and a new low-pressure system develops from Agatha’s wreckage, it will be called Alex and will become the first storm named after the hurricane season in the Atlantic.
The hurricane season officially begins on June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean and long-term weather forecasters are worried about the expected seventh consecutive hurricane season above average.
NOAA predicts the seventh consecutive busy season of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean
Add Comment