Ontario Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca is holding a rally in Scarborough, Ontario, on May 29. Chris Young / The Canadian Press
We can safely predict that the Liberal Party will improve its position in the Ontario legislature after the June 2 election. But that may not save its leader, Stephen Del Duca. And the party itself can have serious problems.
Let’s look at the election landscape in the last days of the campaign.
Almost everyone agrees that Doug Ford’s progressive conservatives will form the next government. 338Canada.com, which weighs and summarizes the polls, had the Conservatives at 38 percent on Sunday. Philippe J. Fournier, who runs the site, envisions a government with a conservative majority of more than 80 seats.
The Tories seem likely to dominate the 905, a group of suburban areas around Toronto named after their regional code. The virtual review of the 905 almost guarantees victory for each country.
With 27 percent of the vote, the Liberals are ahead of the new Democrats, who have 23 percent. But 338Canada estimates that the NDP occupies 25 seats and the Liberals only 15, enough to gain party status in the legislature, which they lost after the last election, but still a distant third-place score.
This is because NDP voting tends to be concentrated in downtown cities and northern Ontario, while Liberal voting is more evenly distributed. This makes things both frustrating and annoying for liberals.
“NDP voting is very effective in the range of 20-25 percent. That is why he can surpass the liberals at this time, “Mr Fournier told me. “However, the NDP vote is highly ineffective in the 25-30 percent range, unlike the Liberals.
If the Liberals manage to win a few more points in the popular vote, the split in the riding level may begin to work in their favor. They could steal a bunch of computer seats, form a formal opposition, and perhaps even deprive conservative leader Doug Ford of a majority government.
But unless they manage to release this leap, the Liberals seem doomed to sink back to third place.
There is more worrying news about Gritza. Mr. Del Duca seeks to enter the legislature through the 905 Vaughan-Woodbridge ride he once owned. But he was defeated in the previous election by 8,000 votes and the 338Canada’s riding forecast shows him to be a throwback.
Reaching third place in the number of seats and losing your own ride can cost Mr Del Duca leadership.
As this is Andrea Horvat’s fourth campaign as NDP leader, both opposition parties could replace the leaders. If so, which party is more likely to overthrow progressive conservatives may depend on which leader each party has chosen.
For most of the province’s history, the Liberals have been one of the two ruling parties, along with the Progressive Conservatives. Most recently, they ruled for 15 years under Prime Ministers Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Winn.
But the NDP formed a government in 1990 under Bob Ray. This is currently the official opposition. After June 2, it may be the official opposition again. If so, anyone who wants to donate to the progressive political party that is likely to overthrow the Tories will have a good reason to send that money to the NDP, not the Liberals.
This portrait of liberal troubles may be undeservedly gloomy. As my colleague Jeff Gray has said, the Liberal leader has done a good job of paying off the party’s debt and creating a solid platform. If the Greeks regain their party status and if Mr Del Duca manages to find a way to enter the legislature, he can continue to lead the party and that party can re-establish itself as the ruling alternative to the RS.
But the strength of the Liberal Party, in any province or national level, is its weakness. He cares for a broad coalition of voters, grouped on both sides of the political center and committed to pragmatic, responsible, moderately progressive governance.
But this coalition is always at risk of evaporating if voters decide they want either a more outspoken progressive or a strongly conservative alternative.
Either with Mr. Del Duca or someone else, the Liberals must get back in the game. Otherwise, voters may forget about them.
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