Doug Ford and his progressive conservatives are ready to form a government for a second term, with another majority on the map, a new study has found.
A poll conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News found that Ford would receive 41 percent of the vote – three points more than in the middle of the campaign.
The poll found that the majority government is likely for RS due to the split between the Liberals and the NDP.
Thus, according to the poll, when it comes to who will become the official opposition, the race between the NDP and the Liberals is extremely narrow.
Read more: 45% of voters believe that Doug Ford, computers will win the election in Ontario: Ipsos poll
Andrea Horvat’s NDP and the Liberals led by Stephen Del Duca were statistically tied with 25% and 24% of the vote, respectively. That’s up two percent for Croatia and down four percent for Del Duca.
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Ontario Green Party member Mike Schreiner will receive six percent of the vote, which remains unchanged.
Other parties such as New Blue will receive four percent. One in 11 (or nine percent) did not decide, while four percent said they would not vote, or one percent refused to answer.
The survey shows that six out of 10 respondents who expressed support for a party said they were absolutely sure of their choice, leaving four out of 10 who were not so sure. The party’s PC supporters were 66 percent more confident than the Liberals by 60 percent, the NDP by 55 percent and the Greens by 43 percent. The other half (49 percent) were less secure.
“This means that there is still time for the movement of votes, especially among the progressive parties,” according to an Ipsos poll. “This also implies a degree of apathy, which may lead to lower activity among supporters of these parties.
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Read more: 40% of Ontario voters think Doug Ford is best suited for prime minister: Ipsos poll
As for the success of the election, the poll noted that in key areas such as Toronto and southwestern Ontario, computers have a strong advantage – especially in the 905 with a 20-point lead.
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In Toronto, computers are competitive and also lead in every other region of the province, the survey said.
Among men, parties dominate the vote by 49 percent, a significant lead over the NDP by 21 percent, the Liberals by 19 percent and the Greens by seven percent, according to the poll.
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Among women, however, none of the parties stands out with tripartite statistical equality, according to the poll.
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When divided by age group, the RS leads the most with those at 55 with 48 percent – well ahead of the Liberals with 26 percent, the NDP with 17 percent and the Greens with six percent.
In the 35-54 age group, RS also has a big lead with 38 percent support, followed by the NDP with 26 percent, the Liberals with 24 percent and the Greens with eight percent.
Meanwhile, in the demographic group of 18 to 34, the poll noted that the NDP leads by 38 percent, with computers lagging behind by 33 percent. Liberals make up 22 percent and greens six percent.
However, only 48% of those between 18 and 34 said they were absolutely sure they would vote.
In an interview with Global News, Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that Ford and computers “turned out to be at a particularly favorable time for public opinion.”
“People are going through a lot of changes – they’re just coming out of a pandemic,” he said. “Obviously inflation is an incredibly fast-growing problem and they are looking for a little stability, in my opinion, in their lives.”
He said the public felt that the Ford administration “had not done too badly” when it came to tackling the pandemic.
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“They are ready to allow the government to try to govern us through the situation we will face,” Bricker said. “So they are not volatile, they are not focused on change at the moment and in particular they do not see any opposition options that are really convincing for them.
Bricker, meanwhile, said there was “a pretty tough race for second place” “right now”.
“Progressive voters do not seem to be able to unite behind a single option,” he said. “If they could, then the Ford administration would be in trouble.”
Bricker said at the time that neither Horvat nor Del Duca had managed to “win what can be called progressive primary elections here and be a standard carrier for progressive voters in these elections.”
“And as long as they remain divided, (it will be) very difficult to defeat the progressive conservatives,” he said.
Ontario’s election is scheduled for Thursday.
-with files by Hannah Jackson from Global News
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos survey was conducted between May 29 and 31 on behalf of Global News. For this study, a sample of n = 2501 eligible voters in Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1501 was interviewed online and a sample of n = 1000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live telephone interviewers on landline and mobile phones using random dialing. The accuracy of Ipsos studies, which include an incredible sample, is measured using a confidence interval. In this case, the survey is accurate to ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 if all Ontario residents were surveyed.
© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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