The secret revolt of disgruntled government ministers could end Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservatives, according to Tory MPs who plan to oust him.
The prime minister could face a no-confidence vote this week, which will require the support of 180 Tory MPs – half of the current 359 – to stay in office.
Supporters speculate that he is almost certain he will win any vote, as the “salary vote” of 173 ministers and parliamentary aides is almost enough to cross the threshold.
But one of the back members, who called for Mr Johnson’s resignation, told The Independent that the prime minister could not take the votes of members of his own government for granted. Two parliamentary private secretaries (PPS) have already left the party, and the rebels believe other government figures are ready to join the initiative to remove him from office.
“This is a secret ballot and in the private life of the electorate it is far from certain that all his ministers will vote to keep him in office,” he said.
“Some of them have a very small majority and will worry about their seats. Some of them may think that they will prosper better with another leader. And some of them just don’t like what they do at the party.
“Obviously, the majority of the congested will vote to remove it, but the secret to overcoming the line will be how many ministers and PPPs – who of course said nothing publicly because it will cost them their jobs – will join them.”
Mr Johnson’s critics issued a briefing to Tory MPs over the weekend on a bank holiday, warning that 160 or more of them could lose their seats in a “crushing” defeat if he leads them to the next election.
“The only way to end this misery, win a hearing from the British public and restore the Conservatives to the point where we can win the next general election is to remove Boris Johnson as prime minister,” the note said.
One MP said that the result of the vote of confidence would probably be “very close” and predicted that even if Mr Johnson was killed by a small margin, he would be incurably injured.
“At this point, I think it’s time for ‘men in gray suits’ and cabinet members will tell him it’s time to leave,” the back judge said. Any normal person would resign.
Some Tory rebels believe that the chairman of the 1922 commission, Sir Graham Brady, has already received the 54 letters needed to trigger a no-confidence vote, with one source suggesting the number could reach 67.
Sir Graham is always strictly silent about the real figure, and some in Westminster believe he may have been waiting for the end of the platinum anniversary weekend to raise the total after saying that counting letters was “not a regular pastime” for him.
If the threshold is exceeded on Monday, he will be expected to inform the prime minister before calling a vote on Tuesday or Wednesday.
If not, many lawmakers expect it to be passed after the June 23 by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, when polls suggest the Conservatives will face a tough night.
A survey by JL Partners for The Sunday Times gave Labor a 20-point lead over the Tories in West Yorkshire, one of the highly symbolic Red Wall constituencies that fell to Mr Johnson in the 2019 election.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the Tories could also face defeat in Devon, with focus groups suggesting that even leaving voters are ready to help the Liberal Democrats overturn the 24,000 majority in a by-election. by MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting to watching pornography in municipalities.
“Partygate has changed everything and that trust has completely disappeared in Boris Johnson,” Mr Johnson said. “The feeling that he is strong and can do things has also disappeared. I think that these midterm elections, the polls and the results of the local elections show that Boris Johnson is no longer the asset he was before. “
With voters showing little enthusiasm for Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives could regain their lead in national polls “fairly quickly” with a new face at the helm, said James Johnson.
A former major Conservative donor predicts the party is heading for the “erasure” of general elections and a decade in the desert unless Boris Johnson is ousted.
Financier Michael Torrey, who has donated more than £ 300,000 to the party since 2010, said: “I was a loyal and long-time donor, but I can only resume donations if there is an immediate change of leadership.
“And this must be now, before it is too late to avoid the well-deserved erasure of the next election, which has probably been in opposition for a decade.
Meanwhile, there has been anger from some assholes at what they see as a “macho” briefing by supporters of the prime minister.
Loyalists have reportedly described the move to oust the prime minister as a conspiracy to reverse Brexit after prominent Johnson critic Tobias Eloud published an article calling for a return to the single market.
Others who signed the no-confidence letters were branded “childish” and “coup” in anonymous briefings to Tory-backing newspapers.
“This is crazy,” said one MP. “Nasty things like that are the opposite of what they have to do. They need to reach out to the people. “
Transport Secretary Grant Shaps said he did not expect a vote next week and that he believed Mr Johnson would survive if he came.
Mr Schaps downplayed the significance of the booing addressed to the prime minister by crowds of platinum jubilee thanksgiving services on Friday.
Recalling the ridicule that George Osborne faced at the 2012 Paralympics, he told BBC1’s Sunday Morning: “I remember whistling at the 2012 Olympics and that didn’t mean the election didn’t win in 2015. d.
Mr Schaps added: “Politicians are, by their very nature … of course, divided. That’s what politicians do. This is because we are arguing about different sides of the issue.
“You will always have people who approve and people who disapprove. This is the meaning of a free and democratic society. It is also the meaning of a monarchy, where everyone can unite and support the queen, regardless of their policies. Honestly, I think this demonstrates one of the beauties of our system.
Elected guru Professor Sir John Curtis of the University of Strathclyde said there was no sign of a backlash over public anger over the parties that violated the 10 Downing Street blockade.
Recent polls show that about three-quarters of voters – including half of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 – believe Johnson lied to Partygate, Professor Curtis said. The same poll found that a quarter or more of Tory supporters want the prime minister to leave.
“Now it is very, very unlikely that society will ever come to the conclusion that what the prime minister did during the blockade with the various rallies was reasonable, let alone within the law,” he told Times Radio.
“If you lose a quarter of the people who voted for you last time, you’re in trouble.”
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