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Ukraine has said it needs 60 multiple rocket launchers to stand a chance of defeating Russia, indicating that the number of such weapons promised by the West so far may not be enough.
Alexei Arestovich, an adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, told the Guardian that 60 launchers would stop Russian forces “dead on the road”. Forty will slow them down with heavy casualties, he said, while 20 will increase Russian casualties, but will leave the battlefield outcome slightly changed.
The United States and Britain have recently announced plans to provide Kyiv with multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) that can hit targets up to 50 miles away. Washington is sending four highly mobile M142 artillery missile systems known as HIMARS, although Ukrainian troops need at least three weeks of training to use them, the Pentagon said. Britain confirmed on Monday that it would send an unspecified number of M270 launchers to Ukraine.
The Kremlin has warned not to equip Kyiv with long-range weapons. Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened a wider campaign with retaliatory shelling, although he denied their effectiveness. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Ukraine will use targeting systems in Russia, although the Biden administration has said Kyiv has agreed to use weapons only on its territory. (London did not say whether it had received such an assurance from Kyiv, but its shipment was made after consultation with Washington.)
Ukrainian leaders “just laugh at Americans who said, ‘We believe in Zelensky, he promised us not to shoot in Russia,'” Lavrov told reporters Monday.
Kyiv said that the supply of MLRS is a top priority, as it is losing ground in eastern Ukraine. Earlier in the war, Ukraine successfully repulsed Russian forces trying to seize the capital and other major cities. But Moscow has celebrated some recent victories in the plains of the east with the support of its long-range artillery systems, making the shattered Severodonetsk the last city to come under Russian control.
Ukraine uses equipment supplied from the West for great effect. Kyiv has said several important victories on the battlefield against Russian tanks and ships using materials such as Javelin missiles and next-generation British light anti-tank weapons (NLAW).
The Ukrainian Navy said this week that it had pushed ships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet about 60 miles off the Ukrainian coast. The Institute for War Research, a Washington-based think tank, said anti-ship missiles provided by the West could help Ukraine regain control of parts of the northwestern Black Sea.
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“The war in the East is currently shaped by the role of artillery,” said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general, adding that 60 MLRS weapons would allow Kyiv to make up for potential combat losses while training.
The approximate range of 50 miles of MLRS-supplied weapons over the United Kingdom and the United States exceeds that of howitzers used by Russia, and would give Ukraine “a much wider coverage area for short-range missions,” he said.
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