The Supreme Court’s decision to lift a decades-old precedent protecting access to abortion was hailed as a victory for conservatives, but the political reality for Republicans is likely to be much more complicated.
Polls have shown that a majority of the American public disapproves of the Supreme Court’s position, and prominent Republicans have circled around calls by some conservatives for tougher abortion laws across the country.
The court ruling, which not only upheld Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban, which directly contradicts Rowe and Wade’s precedent, but completely lifted federal protection against abortion at every stage, created a quagmire for Republican lawmakers in temperate areas during of what was otherwise an auspicious election cycle. And that raises even more questions as the party seeks to return the White House in 2024.
John Thomas, a Republican strategist who has worked on campaigns in the House of Representatives, expects Democrats to see a jump in small dollar donations and said the court ruling distracted attention from economic problems that downgraded President Biden’s approval rating and were in the focus of Republicans on the campaign trail.
“In the short term, this is a winning conversation for Democrats, especially for vulnerable Democrats, where there are many white women educated in college,” Thomas said. “This gives them a little respite from what was otherwise considered just a brutal conversation on almost every front.”
Republicans only need to take one seat in the Senate and change a handful of seats in the House during a traditionally auspicious interim cycle to win a majority in both houses.
“While I think it’s changing voter turnout, I don’t think it’s going to be the main issue that people are going to vote on,” Thomas said. “This is still going to be a great cycle for Republicans; the question is does this allow any democrat to hold on? That does not change the likely outcome of the majority change. “
The risk, strategists say, lies in how vigorously Republican state legislatures and governors are pushing for abortion bans and how Republicans will deal with the problem if they regain a majority in Congress.
Aggressively prosecuting abortion bans could have the opposite effect, given that studies show that Rowe was widely popular.
An NPR survey found that 56 percent of respondents opposed the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, including 53 percent of independents.
A CBS News survey found that 59 percent of Americans disapprove of the court’s decision, including 67 percent of women. Fifty-two percent of respondents called the decision a “step back for America,” compared to 31 percent who called it a step forward.
Perhaps most important about the political landscape is that 50 percent of Democrats said the decision made them more likely to vote in interim terms than 20 percent of Republicans. Forty-two percent of Democrats said it would not affect their likelihood of voting, and 61 percent of independents said it would have no effect.
“I think it all depends on how the state legislature handles this. There will be some who will skip the shark … and that’s what I think makes people like me stop, it’s how it affects down the road, ”said a GOP strategist working on the House races.
A coalition of conservative groups wrote to the two top Republicans in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, urging them to schedule a vote on legislation that would ban abortions if a heart rhythm is detected, going even further than the 15-week ban, backed by many conservatives.
On the Senate side, Republicans have tried to downplay the long-term consequences of the Supreme Court ruling.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Rejected talks on a national abortion ban, saying in Kentucky on Monday that none of the parties in the abortion debate has the 60 votes needed to codify protection or restrictions on abortion. .
Adam Laxalt, a Senate candidate in Nevada, tried to find his own balance, calling the ruling a “historic victory for the sanctity of life” that would give more credibility to the United States. But he acknowledged that Nevada had already voted to defend abortion in the state, making it a settled issue there.
Fighting the precedent set by Rowe has long been a constant topic of conversation for Republicans, but future candidates for national posts must now consider adopting more restrictive abortion policies with potential alienation from the public.
Other Conservatives’ responses range from presenting the decision as a victory for state rights to approving a total ban on abortion, reflecting the unclear way forward.
Former President Trump welcomed the Supreme Court, which ruled a “lifelong victory,” but did not make it the focal point of a rally in Illinois.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has called on states to pass laws restricting abortion following a Supreme Court ruling.
Nicki Haley, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, said the court ruling “returns the debate to where it belongs – at the state level, closest to the people.”
However, it is unclear whether Democrats will even be able to successfully defend Republicans when it comes to access to abortion. Republicans are disciplined, focusing on rising inflation, crime and the flow of migrants across the southern border of the United States in an attempt to protect Democrats.
And those against access to abortion point to past elections where they say Democrats’ efforts to hit Republicans for abortion have failed.
“We have a great example in last year’s Virginia governor race, which came just weeks after the Texas Pulse Bill went into effect,” said Mallory Carroll, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America’s vice president of communications.
During the campaign, Democratic nominee Terry McAuliff tried to portray Republican Glenn Youngkin as the ultimate on the issue, tying him to Texas law, although Youngkin said he disagreed with the ban.
Instead, Yengin focuses on issues such as education and tax cuts. Initial polls show that 8 percent of voters call abortion “the most important issue facing Virginia,” while 33 percent say the same about the economy and jobs.
“[McAuliffe] “He tried to attack to use it to assemble his base, but it turned out to be completely back on election day,” Carol said.
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Yet the historic nature of the Supreme Court ruling could mean a different political landscape for candidates this fall.
“I would say it distracts voters because of the Democrats’ impeccable ability to do everything in Washington,” Thomas said. “Democrats thrive when they can argue that something will be taken away from their constituents.
Julia Manchester contributed.
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