MADRID – Russian troops poured into Ukraine on the morning of February 24, invading land and sea as air strikes poured on cities, in a large-scale attack unlike anything seen in post-World War II Europe.
The following months left thousands dead, millions more displaced, leading to famine and fuel shortages, and fundamentally changing the world order.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is now ready to undertake a major overhaul of the Alliance’s post-Cold War deterrence capabilities at a Spanish summit, but Canada’s role in the new defense strategy remains uncertain.
NATO leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, gathered in Madrid for the landmark summit to discuss how they would respond to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Russia, meanwhile, has launched new attacks on civilians in the country – most recently with a rocket attack on a shopping center in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine on Monday that killed at least 18 people.
NATO has steadily stepped up its presence since the first speculation of a potential invasion in January, effectively straining its muscles to deter Russia from starting a battle with an allied nation.
If Russia moves into NATO territory, it will provoke a total international war between dozens of countries, as an attack on one Allied nation is considered an attack on all 30.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO as one of the justifications for the invasion.
At the G7 in the Bavarian Alps in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the thin line that leaders must follow.
“We are making difficult decisions,” Scholz told the media during a walk around the G7 summit with Trudeau on Monday.
We are also cautious about helping Ukraine as much as possible, but we are also avoiding a major conflict between Russia and NATO.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has signaled that more troops are now needed and that increased preparedness will be needed to keep Russia at bay.
Canada’s most important contribution to the front against Russia is in Latvia, a Baltic nation on Russia’s western border, where Canada has led a battle group of 2,000 people since 2017.
Similar units, led by Germany, Britain and the United States, are scattered along the southern coast of the Baltic Sea.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO members agreed to establish four more battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, effectively expanding the alliance’s eastern front to the Black Sea.
Earlier this week, Stoltenberg said the number of troops in these battle groups would double to between 3,000 and 5,000.
In addition, the alliance dramatically increases the number of forces that would be ready to respond quickly in the event of a full-scale war from 40,000 to 300,000.
The question is whether Canada will provide these troops and the resources needed to keep them ready for potential action.
“It seems that the alliance wants to make some concrete announcements for increased real capabilities, for higher readiness for the alliance, and I’m interested to see if we have more gas in this particular tank or not,” said David Perry, a defense analyst. and foreign policy at the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs.
Trudeau said he would talk to other leaders about it.
“We, like others, are developing plans so that we can expand quickly,” Trudeau told a news briefing at the end of the G7 summit in Germany on Tuesday.
But Canada is no longer fulfilling its promise to NATO to devote two percent of its gross domestic product to military defense.
Members of the 30-member military alliance agreed to the goal in 2014, and it is expected to be in front and in the center when leaders meet on Wednesday.
A report published by Stoltenberg estimates that Canada’s defense spending will instead fall as a share of GDP to 1.27% this year, from 1.32% last year and 1.42% in 2020.
Leaders should also discuss a plan to exit the war, said Robert Baines of the Canadian NATO Association.
“I think NATO leaders said, ‘Well, we’re with Ukraine, while Ukraine needs us.’ And then let’s try to square this circle and say, OK, so there’s no exit strategy. It’s always a challenge, “Baines said.
The summit will also welcome new potential partners in Europe and Asia. Delegations from Sweden and Finland that have applied to join NATO will be present, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yun Suk Yol will be the first leaders of their respective countries to attend a NATO summit.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 29, 2022.
“With files from Lee Bertiaume in Ottawa.”
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