Lucy Edwards, a blind journalist and television operator based in the United Kingdom, found it difficult to maintain social distance in society during the height of the pandemic. That’s why she’s testing the iPhone’s human recognition feature, which uses the iPhone 12 Pro and 13 Pro’s lidar sensor to detect when others are nearby.
“I’m going to have to get used to it, but I’m really excited to be in control again,” Edwards said in a 2020 BBC video documenting his experience.
The lidar or detection and range of light is just one example of how iPhone technology has evolved over the past 15 years. When the first iPhone was released on June 29, 2007, it had a 3.5-inch screen that would be considered small by today’s standards, and a single 2-megapixel camera. Apple’s most sophisticated phones are now equipped with triple rear cameras that are advanced enough to shoot movies, sensors that help people like Edwards navigate the world, and powerful chips with billions of transistors.
The iPhone often serves as a catalyst for the technology introduced into it, whether it’s a Siri digital assistant, mobile payments or wireless charging, and has helped develop the way we live our mobile lives. But in the future, the most important part of the iPhone may be everything around it. This is according to analysts who have observed the general trends in the mobile industry and Apple’s strategy.
In the short term, we are likely to see gradual improvements such as higher quality cameras and giant displays. But in the next decade, the iPhone could become a hub for smart glasses and other devices. AirPods, Apple Watches, and CarPlay-enabled vehicles may be just the beginning. Key elements of the iPhone, such as the display and charging systems, are also expected to receive a significant boost.
“The next search for the smartphone is to find out what it will connect with next,” said Runar Bjorhovde, an analyst at market research firm Canalys. “Because the smartphone has not yet reached its potential, but as a standalone device, I think the smartphone is getting closer and closer to the edge.”
Your iPhone at the center of everything
There is a lot of speculation about what comes next after the smartphone. The famous consensus seems to be smart glasses, with companies like Meta, Snap and Google working on their own version of high-tech glasses.
Apple is no exception; Bloomberg reports show that the iPhone maker may debut with mixed-reality headsets this year or next, which support augmented and virtual reality technologies. A pair of AR-powered smart glasses could arrive later this decade, according to the report.
So what does this have to do with the iPhone? Probably everything. Although the Apple headset is expected to function as a standalone device, the applications and services it runs are likely to come from the iPhone.
Think Apple Watch. It doesn’t need an iPhone nearby to function, but much of its appeal includes its ability to sync closely with an Apple phone. Many of Apple Watch’s notifications are also related to accounts and apps that are set up on the iPhone.
Whether it’s smart headphones, Apple Watch, AirPods or HomeKit-enabled devices, analysts expect the phone to stay in the center.
The iPhone will likely remain at the center of Apple’s experience, serving as a hub for AirPods, the Apple Watch, and probably one day a pair of smart glasses.
Scott Stein / CNET
“The phone will be the anchor,” said Gene Munster, managing partner at technology investment firm Loup Ventures and a longtime Apple analyst.
But it’s not just about connecting to new personal technology gadgets. Apple is gradually making the iPhone a viable wallet replacement, weaving it even tighter into the non-digital aspects of our lives.
Apple has made great strides in this area in the last year, launching new features such as digital IDs for Apple Wallet and Tap to Pay, making the iPhone a contactless payment terminal for merchants without additional hardware. Apple has also just announced Apple Pay Later, which allows Apple Pay users to split the purchase into four equal installments paid over six weeks.
“Clearly, there is a lot of momentum in financial services with Apple, and I think we’ll see further progress there,” said Nick Maynard, head of research at Juniper Research.
Better leader, more advanced AI for better spatial awareness
Making learned assumptions about Apple’s general direction for the iPhone is certainly easier than identifying specific changes that may lie ahead. But analysts have some ideas based on the seeds that Apple planted in the current iPhone.
Lidar is likely to continue to be important as the company delves deeper into augmented reality. Apple added a leader in the iPhone 12 Pro in 2020 to boost the performance of AR apps, enable new camera tricks, and facilitate accessibility features like the aforementioned human recognition. The technology measures the distance by determining how long it takes for light to bounce off an object and bounce back.
However, the current lidar sensors on the iPhone may not be sophisticated enough to realize Apple’s ambitions for augmented reality, Munster said.
“In particular, what needs to happen is to make real-world mapping more accurate,” said Munster, whose firm conducts research on topics such as augmented reality, autonomous vehicles and virtual reality. “And until that happens, AR won’t actually happen.”
IPhone’s people recognition feature uses lidar.
James Martin / CNET
Lidar improves the iPhone’s ability to recognize depth, but it still depends on the phone’s processor to make sense of all this data. Apple has turned to artificial intelligence – one of Silicon Valley’s favorite buzzwords in recent years – to give the iPhone and other products more context for consumers and their environment.
Once again, you can look at the Apple Watch to see this approach work. Apple’s smartwatch uses artificial intelligence and data collected from its sensors for tasks such as tracking your sleep and noticing when you wash your hands.
Hanish Bhatia, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, provided a hypothetical example of how AI improvements may one day manifest in the upcoming iPhone. It envisions a future in which Apple’s smartphone can monitor a person’s habits to see if the main phone user or family member can use the device.
“The way you use your phone, the angle at which your smartphone is tilted … Do you press with special pressure, or do you just touch it with your fingernails or something like that?” He said as an example. “These are all different types of behaviors that are very unique to the user.”
Bhatia’s example is speculative and does not reflect Apple’s real plans. But with advances in AI and technologies like Leader and Ultra Broadband, giving the iPhone more spatial awareness, it’s easy to imagine a scenario like this.
Displays and charging technology can make a big difference
Perhaps one of the biggest questions surrounding Apple’s future plans for smartphones is whether the company will ever create a foldable iPhone. Samsung, Apple’s biggest competitor in the mobile space, has already released several generations of phones with a flexible design. Motorola, Huawei and Microsoft followed suit and are rumored to be working on a flexible Pixel. Deliveries of foldable smartphones are said to have increased by 264.3% in 2021 compared to 2020, according to The International Data Corporation.
But experts such as Munster and Maynard are skeptical about whether Apple will take such an approach. Although the technology giant has filed patents for mobile devices with flexible displays, these documents are not always indicative of Apple’s plans. Sales of foldable phones are growing, but deliveries are still fading compared to regular smartphones. (Research firm IDC estimates that 7.1 million foldable phones were shipped in 2021, compared to 362.4 million phones shipped in the fourth quarter of last year alone). And then the question arises whether foldable devices bring something really new or meaningful to the smartphone experience.
There are also challenges in creating a real glass screen that is foldable, says Munster. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip has a glass screen, but this glass is also combined with “special material” to “achieve constant hardness”, CNET reported in 2020.
“What is often missing from my point of view is how [Apple] it will actually do it, ”Munster said.
Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip 3 can be folded in half.
Sarah Tu / CNET
The attempt to charge the iPhone is probably also due to an upgrade. Between USB-C, Lightning and MagSafe, it’s no exaggeration to say that Apple’s charging options are complex. Maynard believes that pressure from the European Union and US senators could mean that the transition to USB-C could be in the future of the iPhone.
But there may be more dramatic changes. Rumors of a completely unsportsmanlike iPhone have been circulating for years, and Maynard doesn’t think it’s completely out of the question.
“I suspect that if a vendor launches a completely unsportsmanlike system, it will probably be Apple,” Maynard said, citing Apple’s decision to remove the iPhone’s headphone jack in 2016.
Wireless charging has also been a focal point for Apple in recent years, further supporting the iPhone case without ports. There are relatively new Apple MagSafe chargers, and many cars with CarPlay support also support wireless connections. Apple also patented wireless charging systems that would be built directly into MacBooks, allowing Apple laptops to charge iPhones, Apple Watches and iPads. The iPad Pro’s smart connector also provides a quick and easy way to attach accessories to Apple’s tablet without a port.
“The number of systems that actually have to be 100% wired is declining,” Maynard said.
Apple’s MagSafe batteries wirelessly …
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