Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan holds a press conference during the NATO Summit at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on 14 June 2021.
Yves Herman Reuters
NATO officials on Tuesday celebrated the lifting of Turkey’s veto against Sweden and Finland’s accession to the transatlantic alliance, a move that brought the Scandinavian countries one step closer to full NATO membership four months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey’s initial opposition came as a major stumbling block and a surprise to many, amid growing urgency among Western nations to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin. Finland and Sweden have made a historic decision to end their non-aligned positions and join the alliance in the face of Russian aggression, but the new countries joining NATO require unanimous approval from all existing member states.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been adamant in his demands for Sweden and Finland, which have focused on their relations with groups the Turkish government sees as a terrorist threat.
What is a big victory for NATO is also a victory for Erdogan, analysts say, and one the president needs to support domestic support as his economy falters and Turks struggle with inflation that exceeds 70%. .
“Win everywhere except Putin, who is the big loser in all this,” Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, wrote in a note Wednesday. “Erdogan’s good decision. He is investing some political capital in the elections. “
“He negotiated hard until the last minute and won real victories with assurances” on security issues and probably more military equipment than the United States, writes Ash. “He called Biden and will face Biden in Madrid. He’s coming back from the cold with the West.”
Turkey “got what it wanted”
The breakthrough with Turkey followed four hours of talks and weeks of discussions and debates, culminating in a tripartite agreement between Turkey, Sweden and Finland. The agreement included the Scandinavian countries lifting the arms embargo they had previously imposed on Turkey, tightening their laws against Kurdish activists whom Ankara considers terrorists, and examining Turkish requests for the extradition of suspected Kurdish fighters.
Turkey is home to 14 million Kurds, one of the largest ethnic groups in the world without a homeland. Their population of 30 million is spread in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, as well as in immigrant diasporas around the world. The Kurds have faced decades of persecution in modern Turkish history.
A major Kurdish separatist group called the PKK, or Kurdish Workers’ Party, has essentially been at war with the Turkish state since the 1980s, using violent tactics that have provoked bloody responses and resulted in more than 40,000 deaths.
Syrian Kurds gather around a US armored vehicle during a demonstration against Turkish threats at the base of the US-led international coalition on the outskirts of the city of Ras al-Ain in the Syrian province of Hasakeh near the Turkish border on October 6, 2019.
DELIL SULAIMAN AFP | Getty Images
Turkey, Sweden and Finland classify the PKK as a terrorist organization. But Erdogan has accused the two Scandinavian countries of hiding and supporting PKK fighters, which they deny. But in particular, Sweden supports and sends aid to other Kurdish groups in Syria, which the Turkish government does not distinguish from the PKK.
For Erdogan, guaranteeing better co-operation on the issue and demonstrating respect for his security needs were the number one priority.
Turkey “got what it wanted” from a deal with Sweden and Finland on Tuesday night, a statement from the Turkish president’s office said. This meant “full co-operation with Turkey in the fight against the PKK and its affiliates”, including the PKK branch in Syria called YPG, which was supported by Western countries, including the United States, in the fight against ISIS.
Stockholm and Helsinki also pledged “not to impose restrictions on the embargo on the defense industry” of Turkey and to take “concrete steps to extradite terrorist criminals,” the statement said.
Is a deal with the F-16 being prepared?
Erdogan will also have a face-to-face meeting with US President Joe Biden during the NATO summit in Madrid, which many suspect is another sweetener of the deal. He is expected to insist on the sale by the United States of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, which the Biden administration says is a separate issue from the deal with NATO.
It is unclear whether the sale of the F-16 will take place, but many observers expect it to be a gesture of unity following Erdogan’s acceptance of new NATO candidates. In 2017, the United States expelled Turkey from its F-35 program after purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.
“The F-16 deal must certainly be made – hopefully the US Congress is not working with a wrench,” Ash wrote. Congress is usually required to approve all arms sales in the United States.
The leaders of Finland and Sweden said a decision on whether to apply for NATO membership could be expected sooner or later.
Paul Wennerholm Afp | Getty Images
In the end, Erdogan will have to see actions, not words, to feel he has a good deal.
“The most important thing is to wait and see what the commitments will be on the ground,” Haki Akil, a former Turkish ambassador to the Middle East and Europe, told CNBC. “Sweden in particular may face some domestic political problems,” he said, due to political pressure from influential Kurdish groups in Sweden.
“We can say that this agreement is a success for President Erdogan, but the domestic political impact or profit in the country may be limited due to the economic situation in the country,” he added.
Turkey’s presidential election is in June 2023, and a lot can happen between now and then. But by winning some concessions from the West and proving that he can use leverage to his advantage, Erdogan could return to Turkey with something to show for his efforts.
Yet the economic crisis that is hitting the 84-million-strong country – whose currency has lost half its value in the past year – may eventually play a bigger role.
“Erdogan has once again shown his pragmatism, avoiding a crisis by taking some political capital … which he will hope to place in the domestic election market,” Ash wrote. “But the election result is still mega uncertain.”
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