European leaders are urgently trying to deal with the Ukraine crisis and the implications for the wider European economy. If Russian gas supplies, which cover 30-40 percent of European needs, are cut off, the impact will be dramatic. Such a move could cut Germans’ incomes by up to 5 percent.
To deal with this potential crisis, the rest of Europe is working on protocols to share the pain of any Russian gas shutdown and minimize the cost to economies and societies across the continent. However, according to an article in Wednesday’s Financial Times, the UK plans to abandon such solidarity. If Putin cuts off gas to Europe, the report claims, the UK plans to follow suit by shutting down its own gas pipelines to other countries.
There are two such pipelines between the UK and continental Europe. The Financial Times reports that the first thing Britain will do in the event of a severe gas shortage will be to raise the drawbridge by shutting down the pipelines. If this report is true, it will be yet another example of the UK planning to break or abrogate international law and agreements.
Plans to date for legislation to break the Northern Ireland Protocol and repeal the European Convention on Human Rights are already undermining strong international commitments. But to date the UK has not yet canceled contracts under British law.
A significant proportion of the gas flowing into the UK comes from a Norwegian field which is not connected to Norway: the only way out is through the UK. The Norwegian company currently sells the gas to Irish and other EU buyers, delivering it through UK pipelines. However, if the UK government closes these pipelines, the UK will prevent the owner of this gas from supplying its customers outside the UK.
Such action by the UK would increase the availability of gas for its own consumers, thus allowing for lower prices than elsewhere in Europe, where supplies would become scarcer. At a time of high inflation in the UK, there is a clear temptation to do this. However, by weaponizing gas supplies to harm the UK’s neighbours, Johnson would be imitating Putin.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the International Conference on Libya in Berlin in January 2020. Photo: Alexey Nikolsky/EPA/Sputnik/Kremlin
If the UK closes the three pipelines between Ireland and Scotland, it will have profound consequences for us. The UK may choose to continue supplying gas to Northern Ireland. If it does, we could potentially benefit to some extent through the North-South pipeline.
Another scenario could see the UK release the island of Ireland while blocking supplies to mainland Europe. This could cause our relative gas prices to fall below those of continental Europe.
Ireland gets 30 percent of its gas supplies from Corrib, with the rest coming through the UK. If Ireland were to lose 70 percent of the gas coming through Britain, the economic and social consequences would be truly dire. The impact will be on a much larger scale than the threat to Europe from the loss of Russian gas. At most, Europe gets 40 percent of its gas from Russia – 70 percent of ours comes through the UK.
While the very limited supply of gas may allow our electricity system to continue to operate, households and businesses that use gas will suffer significantly. If household gas supplies drop to near zero in the winter, there will be a serious danger of excess deaths from hypothermia. The loss of gas that our food industry relies on could lead to shutdowns.
There is little the Irish government can do this year to offset the dangers of losing access to gas from the UK, other than relying on the goodwill of our nearest neighbours. An important factor is that energy is currently a devolved responsibility under the control of the Scottish and Northern Irish governments. The Scottish Government may be less happy than London about cutting supplies from Scotland to Ireland. They may be more keen to ensure the continued performance of the commercial contracts written under UK law that underpin our gas supplies.
Of course, the London government could counter this by taking these devolved powers away from the Scottish government. However, they may be reluctant to open a new front in the constitutional war with Scotland.
The Utilities Regulatory Authority of Northern Ireland regulates the pipeline between Northern Ireland and Scotland and, jointly with the Utilities Regulatory Commission, the North-South pipeline. On our shared island, this agency and the Northern Ireland Executive, whenever formed, may be more amenable to keeping these vital links open.
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