For Lucy Edwards, a blind, UK-based journalist and TV presenter, maintaining social distance in public places in the midst of the pandemic has been a challenge. That’s why she tried People Detection, a feature in the iPhone’s Magnifier app that uses the lidar sensor on the iPhone 12 Pro and 13 Pro to detect when others are nearby.
“It’s going to take some getting used to, but I’m really excited to be in control again,” Edwards said in a 2020 BBC video documenting her experience.
Lidar, or light detection and ranging, is just one example of how the technology in the iPhone has evolved over the past 15 years. When the first iPhone was released on June 29, 2007, it had a 3.5-inch screen, which would be considered puny by today’s standards, and a single 2-megapixel camera. Now Apple’s most sophisticated phones are equipped with triple rear cameras advanced enough to shoot movies, sensors that help people like Edwards navigate the world, and powerful chips with billions of transistors.
The iPhone often serves as a catalyst for the technology introduced inside, whether it’s the Siri digital assistant, mobile payments or wireless charging, and has helped evolve the way we live our mobile lives. But in the future, the most important part of the iPhone may be everything around it. This is according to analysts who have observed general trends in the mobile industry and Apple’s strategy.
In the short term, we’re likely to see incremental improvements like higher-quality cameras and giant displays. But over the next decade, the iPhone could become a hub for smart glasses and other devices. AirPods, Apple Watches and CarPlay-enabled vehicles could be just the beginning. Core elements of the iPhone, such as the display and charging systems, are also expected to receive a significant boost.
“The next demand for the smartphone is to figure out what it will connect to next,” said Runar Bjorhovde, an analyst at market research firm Canalys. “Because the smartphone hasn’t reached its potential yet, but as a standalone device I think the smartphone is getting closer and closer to the edge.”
Your iPhone at the center of it all
There is a lot of speculation about what comes next after the smartphone. The overwhelming consensus seems to be smart glasses, with companies like Meta, Snap and Google working on their own version of high-tech glasses.
Apple is no exception; reports from Bloomberg indicate that the iPhone maker could debut a mixed reality headset this year or next that supports augmented and virtual reality technologies. A pair of AR-powered smart glasses could arrive later this decade, according to the report.
So what does this have to do with the iPhone? Probably everything. While Apple’s headset is expected to function as a standalone device, the apps and services it runs are likely to be derived from the iPhone.
Consider the Apple Watch. It doesn’t need an iPhone nearby to function, but much of its appeal involves its ability to sync closely with Apple’s phone. Many of the Apple Watch notifications are also associated with accounts and apps that have been set up on the iPhone.
Whether it’s smart headphones, Apple Watch, AirPods, or HomeKit-enabled devices, analysts expect the phone to remain at the center.
The iPhone will likely remain at the center of the Apple experience, serving as the hub for AirPods, the Apple Watch and possibly a pair of smart glasses one day.
Scott Stein/CNET
“The phone will be the flagship,” said Gene Munster, managing partner at technology investment firm Loup Ventures and a longtime Apple analyst.
But it’s not just about connecting with new personal tech gadgets. Apple is gradually turning the iPhone into a viable wallet replacement by weaving it ever more tightly into the non-digital aspects of our lives.
Apple has made great strides on this front over the past year, rolling out new features like digital IDs for Apple Wallet and Tap to Pay, which turns the iPhone into a contactless payment terminal for merchants without additional hardware. Apple just announced Apple Pay Later, which allows Apple Pay users to split a purchase into four equal installments paid over six weeks.
“There’s clearly a lot of momentum in financial services with Apple, and I think we’ll see further progress there,” said Nick Maynard, head of research for Juniper Research.
Better lidar, more advanced AI for better spatial sense
Making educated guesses about Apple’s general direction for the iPhone is certainly easier than pinpointing specific changes that may be coming. But analysts have some ideas based on the seeds Apple has planted in the current iPhones.
Lidar will likely continue to be important as the company moves deeper into augmented reality. Apple added lidar to the iPhone 12 Pro in 2020 to improve the performance of AR apps, enable new camera tricks, and facilitate accessibility features like the aforementioned people recognition. The technology measures distance by determining how long it takes light to reflect off an object and bounce back.
Still, the iPhone’s current lidar sensors may not be sophisticated enough to realize Apple’s augmented reality ambitions, Munster said.
“Specifically, what needs to happen is for the mapping of the real world to be more accurate,” said Munster, whose firm conducts research on topics such as augmented reality, autonomous vehicles and virtual reality. “And until that happens, AR really isn’t going to happen.”
The iPhone’s people recognition feature uses lidar.
James Martin/CNET
Lidar improves the iPhone’s depth-sensing skills, but it still depends on the phone’s processor to make sense of all that data. Apple has turned to artificial intelligence — one of Silicon Valley’s favorite buzzwords in recent years — to give iPhones and other products more context about users and their surroundings.
Once again, you can look to the Apple Watch to see this approach in action. Apple’s smartwatch uses artificial intelligence and data collected from its sensors for tasks like tracking your sleep and noticing when you wash your hands.
Hanish Bhatia, senior analyst for Counterpoint Research, gave a hypothetical example of how AI improvements could one day manifest in upcoming iPhones. He envisions a future where Apple’s smartphone can monitor a person’s habits to find out whether the phone’s primary user or a family member might be using the device.
“The way you use your phone, what angle your smartphone is tilted at… Do you press with special pressure or just tap it with your fingernails or something?” he said as an example. “These are all different types of behavior that are very unique to the user.”
Bhatia’s example is speculative and does not reflect Apple’s actual plans. But with advances in artificial intelligence and technologies like lidar and ultra-broadband giving the iPhone a more spatial sense, it’s easy to imagine a scenario like this.
Displays and charging technology may undergo a major change
Perhaps one of the biggest questions surrounding Apple’s future plans for smartphones is whether the company will ever create a foldable iPhone. Samsung, Apple’s biggest rival in the mobile space, has already released several generations of phones with flexible designs. Motorola, Huawei and Microsoft have followed suit, and Google is rumored to be working on a bendable Pixel. The shipments of foldable smartphones are said to have increased by 264.3% in 2021 compared to 2020, according to The International Data Corporation.
But experts like Munster and Maynard are skeptical that Apple will take such an approach. Although the tech giant has filed patents for mobile devices with flexible displays, those documents aren’t always indicative of Apple’s plans. Sales of foldable phones are growing, but shipments still pale in comparison to regular smartphones. (Research firm IDC estimates that 7.1 million foldable phones shipped in 2021, compared to 362.4 million phones shipped in the fourth quarter of last year alone). And then there’s the question of whether foldable devices bring anything truly new or meaningful to the smartphone experience.
There are also challenges in creating a true glass screen that is foldable, says Munster. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip has a glass screen, but that glass is also combined with a “special material” to “achieve consistent hardness,” CNET reported in 2020.
“The missing part from my perspective is how [Apple] actually would,” Munster said.
Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip 3 can be folded in half.
Sarah Tew/CNET
The iPhone charging experience probably needs an upgrade as well. Between USB-C, Lightning, and MagSafe, it’s no exaggeration to say that Apple’s charging options are complicated. Maynard believes that pressure from the European Union and US senators could mean that a move to USB-C could be in the iPhone’s future.
But there may be more dramatic changes. Rumors of a portless iPhone have been swirling for years, and Maynard doesn’t think it’s completely out of the question.
“I suspect that if any vendor was going to release a completely portless system, then it would probably be Apple,” Maynard said, citing Apple’s decision to remove the headphone jack from the iPhone in 2016.
Wireless charging has also been a focal point for Apple in recent years, further supporting the case for a port-less iPhone. There are relatively new Apple MagSafe chargers, and many CarPlay-enabled vehicles also support wireless connections. Apple is also patenting wireless charging systems that will be built directly into MacBooks, allowing Apple laptops to charge iPhones, Apple Watches and iPads. iPad Pro’s Smart Connector also provides a quick and easy way to attach accessories to Apple’s tablet without a port.
“The number of systems that actually 100 percent must have cable is going down,” Maynard said.
Apple’s MagSafe…
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