GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — As Gov. Gretchen Whitmer prepared to start a roundtable discussion on abortion rights at a brewery recently, Alicia Menilly sat at one corner of the table, feeling politically left out.
Ms Meneely voted for Donald Trump in 2016 before supporting President Biden in 2020, she said. Now she is fighting both parties, deeply disillusioned with Mr. Biden’s leadership but troubled by what she sees as a Republican penchant for extremism, with little room for dissent — especially on abortion rights.
“It scares me a lot,” said Ms. Meneely, 43, who described herself as a “pro-choice Republican” in an interview shortly before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
A few days later, as many Republican officials took in the far-reaching implications of the decision, she was unequivocal. “This is not my party,” Ms Meneely said.
After months of grappling with daunting policy challenges, Democrats have a new opportunity to engage moderate women like Ms. Menilly, who have been critical of the party’s recent victories but are often viewed as voters this year, according to interviews with more than two dozen voters, elected officials and party strategists across the country.
From the suburbs of Philadelphia and Grand Rapids to more conservative territory in Nebraska, there are early signs that some voters who disapprove of Mr. Biden increasingly believe Republicans have gone too far to the right on a range of issues, particularly on abortions.
It’s a dynamic with the potential to shape statewide races and some House races, and one that crystallizes a central tension in the midterm elections as Democrats test whether efforts to brand today’s Republicans as extremists can mitigate the political headwinds facing collide.
High inflation remains a top concern for many voters, and Republicans are betting that most Americans will express frustration with their wallets. Mr. Biden has long struggled with anemic approval ratings. Americans also overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, another troubling sign for the party in power. And some Democrats doubt that even something as significant as overturning Roe will dramatically change the political landscape.
“Does it have an effect? Absolutely,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist. “Does it fundamentally change the landscape? No. Not in an off-year election when your president’s approval rating is below 40 percent and gas is $5 a gallon.
All of these crosscurrents came together last week at several shopping centers in Warrington, Pennsylvania, in Bucks County outside of Philadelphia. It’s a swing city within a swing county in the nation’s ultimate swing state. The next governor and Republican-controlled legislature will likely determine access to abortion after a recent Supreme Court decision handed control of abortion rights back to the states.
Sophia Carroll, 22, said that while growing up, some of her friends were involved in anti-abortion activism. Citing her Catholic upbringing, Ms. Carroll, a registered Republican, said she had mixed emotions when Roe was overturned. But she intended to vote Democratic this fall “just because of this issue” of protecting abortion rights.
From Opinion: The End of Roe v. Wade
Commentary by Times Opinion writers and columnists on the Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right to abortion.
- Michelle Goldberg: “The end of Roe v. Wade was foreseen, but in wide swaths of the country it still creates agonizing and potentially tragic uncertainty.”
- Spencer Bocat-Lindell: “What exactly does it mean for the Supreme Court to experience a crisis of legitimacy, and is it really one?”
- Bonnie Christian, journalist: “For many supporters of former President Donald Trump, Friday’s Supreme Court decision was a long-awaited vindication.” It could also mark the end of his political career.
- Erica Baccioci, legal scholar: “It is precisely the state of the unborn child’s existential dependence on its mother, rather than its autonomy, that makes it particularly suitable for care, nurturing and legal protection.”
“As someone who knows other women who have had to make the decision to choose, it’s a very personal and very intimate decision,” she said in an interview at an outdoor mall.
Ms. Carroll pointed to Justice Clarence Thomas’ concurring opinion, which suggests the court should revisit its cases establishing rights to same-sex marriage, same-sex consensual relationships and contraception.
“Are they going to ban birth control next time?” she said.
There are limited polls that capture attitudes after the Supreme Court decision, and none of them predict how voters will feel in November. A recent poll by NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist found that 56 percent of adults surveyed opposed the decision and 40 percent supported it. Among people in the suburbs, which in recent years have been home to many moderate and lean voters, 57 percent said they mostly support abortion rights; only a third said they mostly opposed abortion rights. Among suburban and small-town women, support for abortion rights jumped to 61 percent.
Another survey by Morning Consult and Politico found that among suburban voters, about 60 percent said it was very or somewhat important to support a candidate in the midterm elections who supports access to abortion; roughly 40 percent said it was very or somewhat important to support a candidate who opposed that access.
But polls also consistently show that the economy and inflation remain top concerns for many Americans. And many voters tend to take their frustrations over cost-of-living concerns onto Democrats.
“The economy will always be the biggest thing for me,” Diane Jacobs, 57, said in an interview outside a Wegmans grocery store in Warrington. Ms. Jacobs, who said she usually votes Republican, identifies as “pro-life” but does not believe abortion should be illegal. She also voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, she said, as an antidote to discord. But Ms. Jacobs said she would not do it again and planned to support Republicans this year.
“Just look at inflation,” she said.
Some voters are still unaware of the ramifications of overturning Roe, which are unfolding day by day and state by state. Democrats may have room to expand their support on the issue as voters learn more. But Republicans may end up winning if many voters who disagree with the decision don’t get bogged down in the details. Ms. Jacobs said she had not heard of any Republicans in the area who wanted to ban the procedure.
“If there was a candidate for president who said they wanted to ban it on a case-by-case basis, I don’t know if I would vote for that person,” she said. “That’s pretty extreme.”
Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, has vowed to veto “any bill that restricts abortion rights.”
The Pennsylvania governor’s race is one of several, including gubernatorial races in Michigan and Wisconsin, that could directly affect abortion rights in battleground states.
Barry Holstein, 58, said she feels a new sense of political urgency. Ms. Holstein, who lives in Drescher, Pennsylvania, declined to say how she voted in 2020. She said she does not always vote in midterm elections and is often open to candidates from both parties. But this year, she said she intends to vote for candidates who support abortion rights and gun control.
“I’m not a politician,” she said. “But that’s enough. i’m angry I’m angry about gun control and abortion. I really am.”
Strategists in both parties are still trying to quantify how many voters like Ms. Holstein are out there.
In a small, private focus group of suburban voters last week sponsored by progressive organizations, a clear majority of participants said the Roe decision will carry either a lot or a medium weight when considering how to vote in the upcoming election.
But in a warning sign for Democrats, at least one participant said she thought it was “too late” — the governing party had already failed to defend abortion rights, so she would weigh a broader set of issues.
While some Republicans see opportunities to portray Democrats as radical on the issue of late-pregnancy abortion rights, many officials have largely sought to keep the focus on cost-of-living issues and Mr. Biden.
“I would be surprised if an energized Democratic electorate breaks through the dead anchor of 40 percent job approval for a Democratic president,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist. “But it can make some races closer than they would otherwise be.”
That may have been the case in a recent special election in Nebraska, when a Democratic candidate performed better than expected in a heavily Republican district. Turnout was just under 30 percent of registered voters.
“It’s real and it resonates and you feel it on the ground,” said Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “I think people in the Midwest really respect people’s privacy. Ranchers always say, “If it doesn’t hurt the cattle, it doesn’t hurt me.” I think that mentality is very much alive in the minds of voters.
Last week, Ms. Menilly of Michigan — who has a background in state work and is committed to efforts to combat human trafficking and online child exploitation — said she had decided to vote for Ms. Whitmer, the Democratic governor.
She also said she would support Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican who applauded the Roe decision, in his primary. Ms. Menilly noted his willingness to challenge Mr. Trump. (He was one of 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment after the Capitol riot.)
But she sounded open to persuasion in general election contests.
“Right now,” she said, “I’m so angry at the Republicans…
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