In a surprise move, the Pac-12 wants to negotiate its media rights deal now. Is it coming from a position of strength?
(Leah Hogsten | The Salt Lake Tribune) Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff addresses the media before the University of Utah plays the Oregon Ducks for the 2021 Pac12 Football Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Dec. 3, 2021.
| July 5, 2022, 7:32 p.m
| Updated: July 6, 2022, 12:31 a.m
If USC and UCLA’s move to the Big Ten was the first act of the Pac-12’s realignment, then the second act began in earnest Tuesday.
The conference set the rest of the college football world on fire this morning, saying it will immediately go to the negotiating table for its media rights contract, which expires in 2024.
It’s not exactly the kind of move you’d expect from a league that just lost its biggest media market and two of its biggest brands — USC football and UCLA basketball. It’s an even stranger move when you consider reports over the weekend indicating the Pac-12 could see more departures in the coming weeks.
But the surprising timing of the announcement from the Pac-12 has led many to believe that a plan is being formulated behind the scenes that could potentially keep the league intact. A senior Utah source told The Salt Lake Tribune on Tuesday that the league remains “bound” for now and Utah remains committed to the conference.
If the Pac-12 is heading to the negotiating table now, he believes it’s coming from a position of strength. Which either means the conferences think they can keep their remaining 10 members or expand.
Top Utah source tells @sltrib weekend report of Utah, CU, UA, ASU meeting with Big 12 today ‘blatantly false’
Additionally, Utah remains strongly aligned with the leadership of the Pac-12, the league’s institutions.
“Bound together” is used to describe suitauton
— Josh Newman (@Joshua_Newman) July 5, 2022
Last week, the prevailing perception was that Oregon and Washington were next in line to leave the conference — either to the Big Ten or the Big 12. It was also reported by CBS Sports that Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado were in deep go discussions for the Big 12.
However, a Utah athletic department source said it is “blatantly untrue” that any of those schools are pursuing a meeting with the Big 12. Colorado State and Arizona State have also issued statements supporting the Pac-12 and its decision to enter negotiations now.
However, the problem for the conference remains that simply retaining its members will not be enough.
After USC and UCLA left, projections for future revenue from a conference-wide media rights deal dropped nearly $200 million. With USC and UCLA in the Pac-12, polls projected a new Pac-12 media rights deal would be in the $500 million range. Now a former FOX Sports executive has estimated that a new deal would be worth around $300 million.
That means significantly less revenue for each individual member, not to mention playing in a downsized league with no clear path to the College Football Playoff.
The Pac-12 could add teams from the Mountain West, such as San Diego State and Boise State. But with both schools in smaller media markets, the added value of the media rights deal won’t make up for the loss of the two big schools.
The better option, at least to this point, would probably be the Pac-12 merging with either the Big 12 or the ACC. Pac-12 insider John Canzano reported that the Pac-12 is actively exploring what a “free merger” of the Pac-12 and ACC would look like.
Combining the Pac-12 and ACC’s existing media markets could be lucrative for ESPN in negotiations. ACC has schools in Boston, Washington and Atlanta. The Pac-12 brings in Denver, Seattle and Salt Lake City.
But for this scenario, and most scenarios, the first step would be to keep existing members in the Pac-12. Oregon and Washington remain highly regarded expansion targets for conferences like the Big 12 and even the Big Ten down the stretch.
Colorado, although it issued a statement in support of the Big 12, also has a board of regents meeting tonight to get “legal advice” on how to navigate the situation with the Pac-12.
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