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Britney Greener pleads guilty in Russia, but experts warn her next steps could have serious consequences

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Brittney Greener pleaded guilty to drug-smuggling charges Thursday after months in Russian custody — and now experts say her release in a potential prison swap could prove a complicated process with serious consequences.

During her court appearance, Greener claimed that it was not her “intention” to break Russian law. She could face up to 10 years in prison.

“I would like to plead guilty, your honor. But there was no intent. I did not want to break the law,” she said, adding that she would testify at a later date.

No sentence has been entered in her case, but talks of a prisoner swap for Greener, who the State Department says is wrongfully detained, have been at the center of talks as her trial continues.

Britney Griner arrives for a hearing at a court in Khimki, outside Moscow, on Thursday. (KIRIL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

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Hugh Duggan, an American academic and longtime diplomat who served as the president’s special envoy on hostage issues under the Trump administration, told Fox News Digital that Griner’s guilty plea further complicates her release because it gives the Russian government more leverage. coin.

“This brings her closer to being identified as a convicted felon with less than a 1% chance of acquittal.” There would have been more wiggle room if she hadn’t gotten to that point, I think, and let the system drag it out and not classify her as such. But that, I think, could make her a more valuable resource for Russia because now they can say we have a legal criminal under their law and we have to be true to our system and so on,” Dugan explained.

Brittney Griner is a two-time Olympic gold medalist and WNBA champion. (KIRIL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

One of the names being reported as a possibility is Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death” who is serving a 25-year sentence in the US after being convicted of conspiring to kill US citizens and provide in aid of a terrorist organization.

Duggan explained that this scenario would not be considered “proportionate” based on the allegations in each respective case.

Suspected Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout walks past makeshift cells before a hearing at the Bangkok Criminal Court on August 20, 2010. (CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images, File)

“When we come to an exchange of something like this with a hardened terrorist, the proportionality is not the same. And that’s always a big concern in negotiations that we don’t devalue our personality to the point where the next day that same country takes another one of our tourists and another American innocently walking around to take advantage of some major foreign policy asset, which we hold theirs.”

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That sentiment was echoed by Tom Schwartz, a distinguished professor of history at Vanderbilt University, who called a prison swap in a high-stakes case like this a “slippery slope.”

“This type of prisoner exchange is a slippery slope, opening up the possibility of other kidnappings of Americans in other countries and attempts by other nations to secure the release of prisoners in this way,” he told Fox News Digital.

Fox News contributor Dan Hoffman, a former CIA station chief, said on the “Fox News Rundown” podcast that the practice of exchanging prisoners in cases like this is not a new strategy for the Kremlin.

“Historically, the United States has been forced to make similar Faustian deals with the Soviets, or in this case with the KGB agent in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, attends the Victory Day military parade marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II in Moscow, May 9. (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, photo of the Kremlin pool via AP, file)

Following news of Griner’s plea on Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov criticized the US government for its presentation of the WNBA star’s case and the “hype” surrounding her detention.

“We have a long-standing framework for discussing such matters. The attempts of the American side to make a noise in the public space, to make a noise about this topic, are very clear and do not help to solve the problems in a practical way. ”

Schwartz said the comment made by Ryabkov signaled that the Kremlin was well aware of the urgency behind Griner’s release.

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“He’s positioning that and making it clear that Russia now recognizes, you could say, the value of Brittney Greener.” I think this may be a negotiating position in the sense that by saying the excitement will make it difficult for her, he’s increasing the pressure on the president to do something quickly to try to free her, as the excitement shows no signs of abating. In that sense, the possibilities for quiet diplomacy in this particular case seem to have disappeared.”

WNBA basketball superstar Brittney Griner arrives for a court hearing in Khimki, outside Moscow, on July 1. (KIRIL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

The Russian foreign minister said on Wednesday that Griner would have the opportunity to appeal or apply for clemency after the verdict, but the actual likelihood of that, while not certain, was bleak.

“The Russian judiciary may be happy to give her a little less and give her some credit for the leniency, but I don’t think we’re talking about her release,” Schwartz said. “Vladimir Putin’s trial has turned out to be a passion fraught with many mistakes by Western analysts who thought he would not invade [Ukraine], thought he wouldn’t do this, and he does these things. So he can surprise us again.”

A decision in this case is likely to be a long and challenging process, Rebecca Koffler, a Russian-born former U.S. intelligence officer and expert on Russia and Vladimir Putin, told Fox News Digital.

“Putin’s government has probably already sent its demands to Washington, either through official channels or back channels. But usually these cases are super hard to handle because of the two legal systems… The US side does not consider the arrest of Ms. Greener to be legitimate even though she was found to be in possession of a substance that is illegal. The Russians insist that the arrest is legal and want the U.S. to admit it. So it will be a battle of semantics in a sense that mirrors the confrontation between Russia and the United States over control of Ukraine.”

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Brittney Griner (42) in a WNBA playoff game on Sept. 26, 2021, in Everett, Wash. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)

Ryabkov’s comments on Thursday only further solidify the battle that is yet to come.

“The persistence with which the American administration and representatives of the relevant [government] structures in Washington are calling those who have been convicted by us of serious charges and are awaiting their respective sentences, [as] “detainees” is a reflection of Washington’s reluctance to adequately perceive the world.

Paulina Deday is a digital reporter for Fox News and Fox Business. Follow Paulina Dedaj on Twitter at @PaulinaDedaj. If you have any advice, you can email Paulina at Paulina.Dedaj@fox.com