News broke Saturday that Nationals outfielder Juan Soto will be made available in trade talks after rejecting Washington’s latest extension offer, a 15-year, $440 million contract. The Nationals are expected to ask for a ton in exchange for Soto, and rightfully so; after all, he’s a 23-year-old already in the Hall of Fame. Soto owns a .293/.427/.540 (160 OPS+) slash line along with 117 home runs and 21 wins above replacement in more than 2,000 major league plate appearances.
He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season, which means if a team acquires him at that deadline, it would be drawing him for three playoff series.
Of course, the odds of the Nationals agreeing to a trade for Soto before the Aug. 2 deadline are speculation. It seems unlikely that such a blockbuster would come together so quickly, but this is baseball and stranger things happen.
So which teams are in the best position to take Soto? Below, CBS Sports ranks the 29 non-national clubs in terms of their perceived chances of getting a deal done.
Juan Soto could be on the move soon, if not by the Aug. 2 trade deadline. MOUSTACHES
Level 1: No Pay, No Play
29. Athletics
28. Marlins
27. Rays
26. Pirates
25. Guardians
24. Brewers
We write off these six teams because of the financial component. Even if they didn’t try to extend Soto, they would have to pay his substantial arbitration awards; that’s not the style of these teams. You could argue that the contending Rays, Guardians or Brewers should look into acquiring Soto for the extended run, as the flags are forever flying and they would have plenty of time to trade him and rebuild prospects at a later date. We like the idea, but this kind of maneuvering almost never happens anymore, and we’re skeptical it will start again with a deal of this expected magnitude.
Level 2: Rebuilders R’ Us
23. Royalty
22. Red
21. Diamondbacks
20. Orioles
19. Rocky Mountains
18. Tigers
While we recognize that some of these six teams look closer to rejoining the competitive ranks than others, we don’t think any of them will pose a serious threat to the Nationals’ asking price. It would be cooler if they did.
Where can Soto do his shuffling? MOUSTACHES
Level 3: Something is missing
17. Small
16. Rangers
15. White Sox
14. Angels
13. Gemini
12. Padres
As fun (or disappointing) as it would be to see Soto in a lineup with the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, or Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., we’re drawing a line through that group because we don’t think they fit either the financial or of the perspective component. Of all the levels so far, this is the first one where we feel like a team from here can make a real play — in other words, we’re getting warmer.
Level 4: Rivals, not friends
11. Brave
10. Phyllis
9. Metz
The question that will be asked of the Nationals is whether or not they are willing to trade Soto within the division. If so, those teams should be moved into the top tier, with the Mets in particular standing out as one of the best potential landing spots for him; if not — and let’s face it, teams don’t usually want to trade their homegrown superstar for a rival they’ll see at home and on the road consistently throughout the season — then that represents the ceiling for this group. Regardless of the answer, the Mets (and more specifically Steve Cohen’s fat wallet) will likely serve as a useful scarecrow for Soto and his front office between now and when he puts pen to paper on a new contract.
Would the Nationals move Soto up the division? If so, these two could be teammates in the future. MOUSTACHES
Level 5: Big market contenders, but…
8. Astros
7. Blue jays
6. Red Sox
Soto would make sense for any of those three teams — all competitive and based in major media markets — but we wonder if their front offices would be willing to commit to the contract terms he would demand. Both the Astros and Red Sox are typically managed by former Rays executives who have either traded or waved goodbye to the likes of Mookie Betts, George Springer and Carlos Correa in recent seasons rather than handing out massive extensions. (You could argue that Soto is on another level, but these players aren’t exactly chopped lungs.) The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are led by former Rangers executives who have recently shown a willingness to hand out big contracts, but who are likely looking to expand their own collection of young stars, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Will they have enough money to do both, or will the Cubs pick Soto over them? We’re open to the possibility, but not sure.
Level 6: Top Five
5. Sailors
Mariners make sense on paper. They have a good farming system. They have few long-term commitments. They have a hyperactive general manager who has every reason to push the pedal to the limit to end the longest playoff drought in sports. Will Jerry Dipoto feel comfortable parting ways with several of his top prospects, led by possibly some combination of shortstop Noelvi Marte and pitchers George Kirby and Matt Brush? We don’t know, but he must be thinking about it.
4. Giants
The Giants have authored dark horse pursuits in the past for the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper. Top executive Farhan Zaidi also knows all about chasing stars from his time as a member of the Dodgers’ front office. The Giants don’t have many significant long-term commitments, and Soto will serve as Buster Posey’s spiritual successor as the face of the franchise. The catch is that Zaidi doesn’t have the kind of wartime outlook that some of his competitors do, which means he may have to take back a bad contract, like Patrick Corbin’s, to make up for it.
3. Yankees
We are legally required to include the Yankees at the top of these lists because of their financial power and their history of taking advantage of such situations. Brian Cashman has even held onto prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza in recent years, giving him some legitimate youngsters to contend with. The interesting wrinkle with the Yankees is that they still haven’t resolved the Aaron Judge situation. The only way the Yankees fan base can be appeased if they let Judge go after this season is if they have Soto either in hand or on the way — and hey, there are plenty of good baseball reasons to prefer a long-term commitment to him over the referee, including age, record and injury history.
2. Dodgers
As with the Yankees, the Dodgers are always near the top of these lists. Andrew Friedman has shown in the past that he’s willing to fight for elite players, and Soto fits the bill. Depending on how the Nationals rate some of the Dodgers’ top youngsters — Bobby Miller, Diego Cartaya, Andy Paige, etc. – Los Angeles will probably have to follow the plan we laid out in the Giants section by taking on a bad contract in addition to Soto. They did something similar when they acquired Mookie Betts from Boston, so this might not be a big deal for Friedman and company.
1. Cardinals
This is almost certain to age badly, but yes, we think the Cardinals have the clearest path of any team to acquiring Soto. They acquired Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in recent seasons and made a splash on Francisco Lindor, among others, showing they have the appetite and desire to make a blockbuster addition. The Cardinals also have the option of offering a package that includes some combination of Jordan Walker, Maseen Wynn, Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neal, among others. In addition, Goldschmidt’s contract will expire after the 2024 season … or right when Soto’s extension will increase to cover his free agent years. It’s possible that Soto would prefer to play on the coast, but shy of that, Mike Rizzo should direct one of his first phone calls about Soto to the Cardinals.
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