A proposal to protect same-sex marriage through federal law is becoming a political liability for Senate Republicans, who would rather talk about inflation and gas prices than a hot-button social issue that could spark a backlash from their party’s base.
Making matters worse for Senate Republicans, a bill to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and require states to recognize same-sex marriages passed the House with 47 GOP votes, giving it strong bipartisan momentum.
It’s a tough vote for many Senate Republicans because while a recent Gallup poll shows broad public support for recognizing same-sex marriage, there is strong support among social conservatives for defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman.
If the issue reaches the Senate, Senate Republicans will have to decide whether to risk alienating moderate voters or start a battle with their own base.
Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.), the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate, announced Thursday that he would vote for the House-passed bill.
Johnson accused Democrats of playing politics, but told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, “if it goes before the Senate, I see no reason to oppose it.”
Johnson faces a tough race in a state where President Biden narrowly won the 2020 election.
His home state counterpart, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), is also the lead sponsor of the Senate bill to protect same-sex marriage.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters (Mich.) predicted that Republicans will pay a political price in the midterm elections if they block legislation to protect same-sex and interracial marriage.
“Obviously a large majority of Americans believe this is where we should be,” he said, warning that if Republicans fail the Respect for Marriage Act, it “adds to the narrative” that they are allies of the conservative Supreme Court.
“We have Republicans taking away women’s reproductive freedom rights, they’re taking away the rights of other individuals, so that’s not going to bode well in the election,” he said, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson, who rejected abortion rights.
Peters said fear and anger over the loss of abortion and other rights will motivate young voters in November.
“When they see Republicans taking away rights, when you think about people’s marriage rights, that’s a huge issue for young people,” he said. “They believe it’s a basic human right that should be protected.”
Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs Survey, conducted in May, found that 71 percent of Americans say they support legal same-sex marriage.
Other potential yes votes in the Senate GOP caucus avoided the issue.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) expressed his frustration on the issue Thursday when asked if he would consider voting for the House bill, which would also offer federal protections for interracial marriage.
“Isn’t it amazing how they completely threw it away to distract you? You don’t talk about inflation, crime, the border or chips [bill]Cassidy said, accusing Democrats of trying to divert attention from the economy and other issues.
“This is such a ploy to divert the attention of the press from the problems that concern us. I refuse to answer the question,” he said.
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), another potential Republican who voted yes, said Thursday that she has not yet made up her mind.
“I’ve thought about it, but I haven’t made any decisions,” she said.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Roy Blunt (Missouri), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), Ben Sasse (Nebraska), Mitt Romney (Utah), Mike Rounds (SD) and Todd Young (Ind.), se seen as potential GOP backers of the bill and have yet to say how they will vote.
Johnson’s announcement that he would vote for the bill, however, put pressure on his Republican colleagues to do the same. He is one of the most conservative and pro-Trump members of the Senate GOP conference.
Romney is under pressure to vote for the legislation after all four Republican members of Utah’s House delegation — Reps. Blake Moore, Chris Stewart, John Curtis and Burgess Owens — voted yes on Tuesday.
However, Romney told The Hill, “I’ll make my own decision.”
Vin Weber, a Republican strategist, said Senate Republicans are lagging behind the national sentiment on same-sex marriage and predicted there would be no major consequences if they vote to protect it.
“It’s a less difficult issue than they think, but I understand it’s a difficult issue because there is a portion of the Republican base that is strongly opposed to same-sex marriage. In my view, same-sex marriage is an accepted part of American life and it’s not going to change,” he said.
“But there are people who remain opposed mainly on religious grounds and have votes in the Republican Party,” he added. “My own feeling is that Republicans are overdoing this vote.”
Weber said public views on gay and lesbian rights and same-sex marriage have “transformed radically” across the nation since Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.
This bill defines marriage as the union of one man and one woman and allows states not to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. Then-President Clinton signed it into law after the Senate and House overwhelmingly passed it.
Weber noted that former President Obama did not support same-sex marriage when he was elected in 2008 and only announced his support in 2012.
“The country has changed on this, and unlike abortion, there is no ongoing political movement in mass opposition to same-sex marriage, as there was for 50 years against abortion on demand,” he said.
Polls show that support for same-sex marriage among Republicans is significantly lower than among Democrats and independents.
The Gallup poll showed that only 40 percent of weekly churchgoers support legalizing same-sex marriage, while 58 percent oppose the idea.
And people who attend church regularly are more likely to vote Republican, according to the Pew Research Center.
Republican strategists as early as 2004 saw opposition to same-sex marriage as a profitable political issue.
GOP strategists say ballot initiatives in 11 states codifying marriage as the union of a man and a woman helped boost Republican turnout in the 2004 election.
One such state constitutional amendment may have made the difference in Ohio, which President George W. Bush passed by a narrow margin over then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).
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“They were extremely popular and some credited them with helping George W. Bush get re-elected. It was something that was very popular at the time,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide.
Darling said the Gallup poll, which shows broad national support for same-sex marriage, may not capture how strongly Republican voters feel about same-sex marriage.
“I think most Republicans look behind the poll numbers and think it’s not as popular as the polls show,” he said.
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