When the MLB trade deadline rolls around at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the Toronto Blue Jays will have made decisions that will affect the franchise for years to come.
Even in the unlikely scenario that they stand by without making a single deal, this inaction will have ripple effects that will extend beyond 2022.
The trade market has a limited number of players, but there are multiple possible avenues to pursue, ranging from a superstar deal to some modest bullpen upgrades. To best understand how important the trade deadline is for the Blue Jays going forward, we decided to look at the ramifications of all the close deals this front office has made.
While their moves in 2016, 2020 and 2021 are most instructive because they were buyers fighting for a playoff spot in those seasons, there is much to be learned from examining the entire story year by year.
For the purposes of this exercise, we also count trades that are executed a few days before the deadline, as well as being “deadline trades”.
2016
Additions: RP Joaquin Benoit, SP Francisco Liriano, SP/RP Scott Fellman, C Reese McGuire, OF Harold Ramirez, SP/RP Mike Bolsinger, OF Melvin Upton Jr.
Outs: RP Drew Storen, SP Drew Hutchison, SP Guadalupe Chavez, RP Jesse Chavez, SP/RP Hansel Rodriguez
2022 Branches: Unsurprisingly, none of the players the Blue Jays acquired are still on the team, though it’s worth noting that Reese McGuire performed admirably at the backfield position at times and the Blue Jays converted him in Zach Collins, who remains with the team today.
Considering Collins has made just three appearances since returning to Toronto’s roster on June 25, it would be pretentious to say he’s making an impact right now, but he’s there.
The most important piece here is Liriano, but its importance falls under “2017”.
2017
Additions: OF Teoscar Hernandez, OF Nori Aoki, SP/RP Thomas Pannone, 2B/OF Samad Taylor
Outs: SP Francisco Liriano, RP Joe Smith
2022 Branches: This is the big one. Hernandez is the crown jewel of the Blue Jays’ 2017-2019 rebuild, and exactly the type of player you’d hope to get at the deadline as a seller.
The outfielder had some early bumps in the road — especially defensively — but ended up shattering all reasonable expectations after joining the Blue Jays. Since returning from a demotion to Triple-A on June 5, 2019, Hernandez has a 132 wRC+, the 20th best mark among qualified hitters.
He’s a two-time silver medalist, a star, and a guy on the verge of earning a solid contract, whether he’s with the Blue Jays or not. FanGraph estimates his on-field production for Toronto is now worth $80.1 million.
This deadline could look even better for the Blue Jays if Taylor ends up contributing to the big leagues. The versatile 24-year-old was a roughly average hitter in Triple-A this season after breaking into Double-A in 2021. His power and speed remain interesting, even if hitting is an issue.
2018
Additions: OF Billy McKinney, 3B Brandon Drury, RP David Paulino, RP Hector Perez, RP Ken Giles, RP Corey Copping, SP/RP Jacob Waguespack, OF Forrest Wall, 1B Chad Spanberger
Outs: SP JA Happ, RP Roberto Osuna, RP John Axford, RP Aaron Loup, RP Seunghwan Oh
2022 Branches: This deadline included the acquisition of prospects and young players that the team likely hoped would contribute four years later, but it didn’t work out that way.
McKinney and Drury were unproductive. Paulino and Perez were never able to break through. Waguespack pitched for a few bad Blue Jays teams, but never quite had the stuff — and now he’s plying his trade in Japan.
Spanberger ended up being turned over for a dart to Chase Anderson, which also never amounted to much.
It’s hard to describe this term as anything other than nonsense. Considering the number of players that have moved on, it’s surprising that it hasn’t left a lasting impact.
A month later, the Blue Jays were able to trade Josh Donaldson for Julian Merriweather, but the odds don’t look great for that deal as it has yet to bear fruit over an extended period of time.
2019
Additions: RP Curtis Taylor, RP Addison Gonzalez, SP/RP Anthony Kay, SP Simeon Woods Richardson, SP/RP Thomas Hatch, RP Kyle Johnston, OF Derek Fisher
Removals: 2B Eric Sogard, SP Marcus Stroman, RP David Phelps, RP Daniel Hudson, SP Aaron Sanchez, RP Joe Biagini, OF Cal Stevenson
2022 Branches: This was the infamous 42 year control period. The Blue Jays haven’t gotten much MLB production from this group, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t had an impact on the franchise’s team building.
Putting Woods Richardson aside for a moment, the inability of a group of young Blue Jays pitchers like Kaye, Hatch, Wagespack, Pannone — and offseason trade acquisition Trent Thornton — to graduate as viable back-of-the-rotation starters has forced the team to acquire veterans to occupy these places.
Starters like Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, the pair of pitchers the team acquired at the 2020 deadline, and even Yusei Kikuchi were largely included because the Blue Jays haven’t developed MLB starters other than Alec Manoa in recent seasons.
Kay, Hatch and Johnston are currently working in triple-A and could be on the mend, but the last year of the sale didn’t produce MLB regulars.
2020
Additions: SP/RP Ross Stripling, SP Taijuan Walker, SP Robbie Ray, INF Jonathan Villar
Releases: RP Travis Bergen, SP Kendall Williams, 1B/OF Ryan Noda, OF Griffin Conine
2022 ramifications: The effect of this deadline is being felt deeply by the 2022 Blue Jays.
That starts with Stripling, who has been outstanding as the team’s fourth starter with a 3.10 ERA and 3.11 FIP to match. Hyun-Jin Ryu’s injury and Kikuchi’s inconsistency could have easily derailed the Blue Jays’ rotation in 2022. Stripling’s play prevented that from happening as the right-hander became much more impactful this year than he was in 2020 or 2021.
The acquisition of Ray also remains relevant despite his absence from the current squad. His success as a high-velocity lefty with questionable command likely played a role in the Blue Jays’ acquisition of Kikuchi, a lefty with a similar repertoire. Signing the Japanese left-hander to a three-year deal was a risky move, and it’s hard to make it happen without the team helping Ray iron out his issues first.
More directly, his departure as a free agent after the 2021 season resulted in the Blue Jays earning the 78th pick in the 2022 draft. The player selected with that pick — college second baseman Cade Doughty — won’t help the team this year. but if he develops into a standout prospect, the Blue Jays’ take on Ray as a reclamation project will carry weight beyond his outstanding production in Toronto.
2021
Additions: SP Jose Berrios, RP Brad Hand, RP Joaquim Soria
Outs: SS/OF Austin Martin, SP Simeon Woods Richardson, C Riley Adams, SP Yaifer Perdomo, C JJ D’Orazio
2022 Branches: Like Liriano, Woods Richardson appears twice on this list as the Blue Jays go from seller to buyer.
It’s too early to know how this deal will play out, but Berrios is a huge part of the team’s current and future success, especially after signing a $131 million extension. Neither Martin nor Woods Richardson finished with a double-double rating, meaning they likely wouldn’t have made an impact on the 2022 Blue Jays had they stayed.
That means Berrios’ move — for now — is only as good as it is productive. That makes it a mixed bag so far, as the right-hander had some promising outings but ended up posting a 5.20 ERA and 0.4 WAR on the season.
Add Comment