No team is as good as it looks when it’s at its best, or as bad as it looks when it’s playing its worst. The month of July has been a bit of a roller coaster for the Toronto Blue Jays. Remember, in this month alone, the Jays lost nine of 10 games and won nine of 10 games. They have looked their best and their worst. So please let the real Toronto Blue Jays rise up!
With the trade deadline just days away, general manager Ross Atkins is looking for ways to improve his club. Not only to make the playoffs, but to win when they arrive. Nothing about their recent hot streak will dissuade him from taking steps to improve his team. The losing streak is still fresh in his mind. He knows how quickly things can turn around.
The team’s needs haven’t changed much in the month of July. In order of priority, the Jays need: another starting pitcher, bullpen depth and a big bat. Tilting needs are most critical.
Ideally, they would trade for a front-of-the-rotation guy who can take the ball in a playoff series and win a big game. If they don’t get an ace, then they need a second-tier starter who can predictably give them a chance to win every game. If they settle for a weaker starter, then they should focus on acquiring stronger relievers. They could really use another lefty who can get big strikeouts in the 8th or 9th inning. They need a veteran who can save the game at any point in the game. Sometimes games have to be saved in the 6th and 7th innings. This lefty would be a complement to Jordan Romano in high leverage situations.
Offensively, Toronto could use another big bat in the lineup. Realistically, this striker would serve mostly as a designated hitter. Ideally, he’ll bat left-handed to better balance a lineup that’s a bit right-handed dominant. Or, better yet, he would be a striker. But mostly they just need him to be a good professional hitter.
Reading the commercial market
When general managers come calling this time of year, they’re juggling a number of parallel negotiations. Generators should have a plan A, plan B, plan C, and plan D for each need they want to meet. So, Atkins has to determine who is the best starter, reliever and hitter for this team. But the reality is that no team has the prospect capital, financial flexibility or luck to land the best available players in multiple areas of need. In their talks with other clubs, general managers assess the suitability of the players they are considering acquiring: the cost of the acquisition and the time when a deal can be made.
It’s a juggling act trying to stay involved in all the discussions while navigating the best score by 6pm ET on August 2nd.
Atkins will have to evaluate his ability to get Reds ace Luis Castillo or A’s starter Frankie Montas for the starting rotation. Knowing that if he gets one of those, it will cost him so much that he’ll probably have to settle for less relief and offensive help. If he can’t get one of the aces, then he’ll need to make sure he gets a stronger reliever-hitter tandem. If he gets a weaker starter and can’t land the helpers he would prefer, then the quality of the forward needs to be higher. There are a bunch of moving parts that require a general manager to be nimble and smart. There is an art to keeping each deal alive and calculating which is the best combination of players to acquire and at what price.
It is extremely important that Jace takes action to meet his needs. Have you ever sat in a car in traffic and felt like you were rolling backwards, but it’s only an illusion because the traffic is actually the traffic of the cars next to you rolling forward? That’s what it feels like at the trade deadline when the teams around your club in the standings are making deals and improving and you’re not. You feel like you’ve gotten worse. General managers recognize this sentiment and its impact. Players want to see effort and commitment from their front office. As a general manager, I couldn’t throw the floor or hit the ball. But at the trade deadline, it was my time to compete.
I wanted to beat the deadline.
I knew there were other good teams and aggressive GMs, but I believed that a GM who made the right trades could manipulate the roster in a way that would get his club to the playoffs and win. Look at the Atlanta Braves last season. Former Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos added four outfielders at the deadline (Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler) and shortly after they surpassed the Mets, who had been in first place for more than 100 days. They rode the wave of momentum all the way to a world championship.
Is demand outstripping supply this year?
The expanded playoff format adds another interesting twist to the trade deadline. There are now six teams in each league that will make the playoffs; the three division winners and three wild cards. The top two division winners by record receive a first round bye, while the third division winner plays the third wild card club and the first and second wild card teams play each other. The higher seeded teams will host all games in the best-of-three series.
The law of supply and demand applies to baseball as it does to economics. The more teams in the playoff chase, the greater the demand to acquire players at the trade deadline. Asking prices from sellers will be marginally higher for talent this year due to the increased opportunity to play in October.
A case in point is the Yankees’ acquisition of Royals shortstop Andrew Benintendi on Wednesday night. The Yankees need starting pitching and bullpen help and a left-handed hitting outfielder. There was speculation that they would go all-in against Nationals outfielder Juan Soto. Instead, Yankee GM Brian Cashman made a preemptive move to get Benintendi. Cashman realized his bigger need was to pitch over an offense (they scored the most runs in baseball). So instead of putting all his eggs in Soto’s basket, he struck a deal to get his option for Plan B. He acted quickly before some of the bubble teams decided whether they were buyers or sellers.
Cashman read the scale of supply and demand in the market. He also had to prioritize his needs. By making the deal for the Plan B outfielder, he still has prospects for an impact that could lead to on-field improvements. There is now one less outsider in the market, so as supply decreases, the price will rise for others to acquire a bat. Meanwhile, Cashman can use his remaining trade chips on the pitching market.
Whichever team wins the 2022 World Series, acquisitions at the deadline will likely be a big reason for their success. I can’t wait to see which moves prove to be the most impactful.
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