TORONTO — Over the past year, Matt Chapman has gone from one extreme of the racing cycle to the other and back again.
Last July, his Oakland Athletics were buyers at the trade deadline for the fourth straight season before gutting their roster — a third baseman makes the difference among the trades — after the lockout ended. With the Toronto Blue Jays, he returned to a club looking to expand before the Aug. 2 deadline, as curious as everyone else about what’s next.
“I feel like it’s what I’m used to,” Chapman said before hitting his 19th home run in a 4-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Friday night. “If your team is in it, you have to try to make yourself a little bit better because everyone else is doing that. We want to win and our goal is to win a World Series, so it’s exciting.
“I saw this with Oakland coming, I just didn’t know when, and I’m thankful that I came here and I’m thankful that it happened early in the season. Being traded mid-season is probably a bunch of things. I’m happy, I’m settled and whoever we get, we’ll be happy to have him.”
The intrigue continued to build Friday about who exactly the Blue Jays could get.
One line of thinking is that adding a top-tier leverage arm to the bullpen remains their biggest area of opportunity, both bolstering the depth behind Jordan Romano and strengthening the bridge to him.
But while George Springer left Thursday’s 5-3 win early with right elbow discomfort raised concerns about the club’s lack of center field depth, a more troubling reminder of how thin the rotation is came in the sixth inning Friday when Alec Manoa was forced to leave his out after a returning Jonathan Shoop caught him on the right elbow.
The star right-hander writhed in pain and circled the mound, waiting for the sting to wear off in front of a hushed gathering of 28,046. Head coach Jose Ministeral ran out and, after a lengthy discussion, Tim Maiza was called from the bullpen.
Manoa’s X-rays later came back negative and he was diagnosed with an elbow injury, a big blow for the Blue Jays.
Overreacting at a moment’s notice is not a good way to run any business.
But given the internal debate the Blue Jays are having about how best to support the club, the rotation is likely the most exposed area if there is an injury or if Yusei Kikuchi’s promising outing on Thursday turns out to be more of a flash than a bounce.
For that reason, a push for an elite starter, hampered by the reported acquisition of Luis Castillo from the Seattle Mariners in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds late Friday night, may be the wisest course of action.
Without Castillo in play, that market is much thinner, with the Miami Marlins’ Pablo Lopez, Oakland’s Frankie Montas or perhaps a creative outfielder for Jose Urquidi with Houston.
The Reds’ path forward with Castillo has been clear, while the Marlins’ plans are less defined, with one source suggesting they want “a lot” of Lopez to change their mind.
The high price is more than justified for both, but one of the main challenges for buyers at this time of year is identifying what’s real and what’s not, so they don’t spend days chasing their tails dealing with a team that just tries to estimate the value.
The Los Angeles Angels could be Exhibit A in that regard with Shohei Ohtani, who would be an obvious focus for any suitor if it weren’t for the skepticism about whether or not he would get a deal.
A deal of this magnitude is difficult to pull off in such a short period of time — think of the run the Washington Nationals built on the Juan Soto sweepstakes — making it risky to invest manpower in pursuing Ohtani when the clocks are limited and the Angels intent unclear.
Ohtani is clearly the dream addition, even more so than Soto, but the Reds were clearly selling Castillo and the Blue Jays don’t really have a sixth starter if they need one for the rotation.
Rookie Max Castillo has impressed in a small sample, but has thrown just 12.1 innings since July 7, just two of those in the last two weeks. To suddenly think he’s going to carry five frames or more every five days is truly scenario planning made in heaven.
As a general rule, relievers are volatile, and the Blue Jays have been and remain largely reluctant to shift significant resources, both in dollars and in potential capital, to them. That suggests they’ll target bullpen hires more specifically to minimize costs and avoid year-to-year risk, making, say, David Robertson or Daniel Bard more likely than, say, Gregory Soto or David Bednar.
The Tigers turned in relievers across the board to close out the win, with slugger Joe Jimenez (one-plus seasons of contract control) handling the seventh, pending free agent Michael Fulmer working the eighth and Gregory Soto (three-plus seasons of contract control) the ninth.
Six of the 10 batters they faced struck out, the kind of relief the Blue Jays need.
If the price is right, the Blue Jays would be happy to have two of those three cross the diamond this weekend, but the Tigers would be wise to play it out and see if the need makes a desperate club overpay, perhaps even grossly so.
If that’s what it takes, spend big on an elite starter, as they make a better bet after this year than Bednar or Soto, and health concerns aside, the Blue Jays will also be mindful of Manoa and Ross Stripling’s workload.
With 5.1 more innings on Friday, Manoa is now at 126 innings, four frames away from eclipsing the career high he set last year, while Stripling’s 78.1 frames is within striking distance of the 101.1 innings he logged last season. 2021
Protecting them while keeping Kikuchi from injury and potential instability certainly seems like a priority.
With those considerations played out in the background, all the Blue Jays players can do is take care of business when they’re on the field and consider the possibilities when they’re off, without the stress and anxiety of the players at right club sale now.
“I enjoy this time of year because now it’s about winning and that’s all I really want to do is win,” Chapman said. “It’s fun thinking about who you can take and what happens. But it looks like a lot more teams are adding than subtracting this year, so it could be anyone’s game. I’ve learned that this team is committed, the front office knows what they want to do, and I think they appreciate that right now. But this team right now we are good enough to compete with anyone. Everything we get makes us that much better.”
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