TORONTO — In the run-up to the 2022 trade deadline, the pitching market has started to pick up after the Padres acquired Josh Hader from Milwaukee, the Yankees acquired reliever Scott Effross and the Athletics appeared to have made progress in the Frankie Montas deal.
The Blue Jays have been quiet thus far, but with clear needs, coveted prospects and a history of busy deadlines, there’s reason to believe moves are coming. In the meantime, here are some observations on where the Blue Jays stand, what fits their lineup best and what’s next.
The case for the relievers
It’s easy for front office executives to give up on trading good relief prospects. They are fickle and offer relatively few innings – but are often still expensive. The risk is high, the price is high, the volatility follows. If you evaluate a reliever trade by WAR, the team that sends the reliever out of town usually wins.
But consider this recently made by a longtime baseball player: When your season is on the line, who holds the ball? The 8th inning of Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, for example? Or the ninth inning of Game 6 of the ALCS? More often than not, it’s a relief.
So, as useful as WAR is for capturing the relative value of players over the course of 162 games, it doesn’t capture the importance of relievers to a deep playoff run. And yes, the effectiveness of the reliever is inconsistent. There is an absolute risk of paying more for the unimpressive 20-inning sample. But the bigger risk? Pitching to a mediocre pitcher with your season on the line.
Right now, Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia play as relievers who deserve the ball in the highest, high-leverage situations. Beyond those two, who on the Blue Jays staff really fits that description? David Phelps, Adam Simber and Tim Meza have all been effective, but their strikeout percentages are below average for relievers, so they are still needed.
By all accounts, the Blue Jays are motivated to bolster their staff, checking relievers and starters in hopes of finding reinforcements. Of course, there is a lot of competition on this front.
“Sounds like every team,” noted another person familiar with the trade market.
The thing is, not every team has the same opportunity in front of them as the Blue Jays. They are now the third-best team in the American League, trailing only the Yankees and Astros. Even without reinforcements, they could probably make the playoffs.
Still, there’s a case to be made for trading good prospects to make sure John Schneider has plenty of late-game options. Simply put: It’s hard to see the Blue Jays making it through four playoff series without more high-end relief. With it, they can be scary.
Bat-only types need not apply
In the recent past, the Blue Jays have shown interest in DH types, including Nelson Cruz, but those types of players no longer fit so well on Toronto’s roster.
So far this season, George Springer has made about a quarter of his appearances at DH (21 of 88), but his sore right elbow is enough of a concern that he missed three of the Blue Jays’ nine games in the second half. More time may be needed to DH, and that’s before we get to Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays’ best hitter so far in 2022.
Between those two and the occasional partial day off for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it looks like most of the Blue Jays’ DH battles have been decided. With that in mind, all of the position players the Blue Jays consider likely should be able to contribute on defense as well.
Last call…
Under the previous rules, when players could be dealt in August as long as they cleared waivers, this Blue Jays front office might have continued to trade for a few more weeks. Even if it wasn’t, the possibility of a trade created flexibility for GM in case of unexpected injuries.
That’s been especially true for teams willing to absorb payroll, and while the Blue Jays aren’t reckless spenders, they clearly fall into that category. They took money at each of the last two deadlines and publicly indicated they could do it again. Thus: Although the details are still unclear and may not be until his contract expires, it is believed that the Blue Jays will receive at least some financial relief on Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80 million deal ( Operation Tommy John limited Ryu to six starts in 2022 and will cost him most or all of the 2023 season, after which he becomes a free agent).
However, now the possibility of trading for a second wave of reinforcements in August no longer exists. The Blue Jays don’t have the luxury of letting Springer’s situation play out for a few more weeks; now they have to decide whether to backfill. The same goes for referral staff. As Alec Manoa’s scare over the weekend showed, the Blue Jays are one returner away from trouble.
It starts with internal assessment – knowing your own players. But GMs may want to seek help proactively since this is their last chance to add meaningfully before the playoffs.
Add Comment