ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – Last summer, as the Toronto Blue Jays weighed their options before the trade deadline, their record was 51-48 with playoff odds of 26.2 percent. A justifiable case could be made for taking a conservative approach, stockpiling prospects and waiting for a better opportunity. They didn’t, instead acquiring Jose Berrios, electrifying their clubhouse and fan base and sparking a 40-23 run that left them one game shy of the season ending.
That experience carried over into 2022, and with less than 24 hours remaining before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, they owned the top wild card spot at 57-45, with playoff odds of 97.2 percent, according to Fangraphs . The difference from the previous year is clear for center fielder George Springer and highlights why this group has earned more additions.
“This year, we understand what it takes to get there, and we expect to be there,” Springer says. “Last year it was let’s just enjoy this ride and see what happens. Obviously then we got Jose. He was amazing to us. I know you’d say it’s had its ups and downs, but that’s the game. I just think we’re in a much different position mentally as a team as opposed to saying it would be great to get there. We expect to be there. That’s the biggest change.”
It’s unclear how that will affect the Blue Jays’ mindset in the final hours before the layoff.
While rivals like the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays have made additions to try to change their field position, the Blue Jays have yet to land a hit. The expectation remains that they will do so by focusing on adding pitching, according to industry sources. They are believed to have the ability and financial capacity to make impactful moves.
One of those sources believed the Blue Jays were “neck and neck” with the Yankees for right-hander Frankie Montas and reliever Lou Trivino. The inclusion of pitching prospects Ken Waldychuk and Luis Medina, ranked No. 5 and No. 9 in their system by Baseball America, likely tipped the scales in New York’s favor.
The deal was the third made by the Yankees, who at 69-34 have an 11.5-game lead over the Blue Jays in the American League East and are eyeing the World Series. Before the trade, their FanGraph odds of going all the way stood at 13.1%, trailing the Dodgers (17.3%), Astros (15.9%) and Mets (14.5%).
Atlanta was next at 11.6%, followed by the Blue Jays at 6.8%, and while a few trades wouldn’t necessarily change that drastically, the more important question is: how often will they have this type of opportunity in front of them?
The Blue Jays, as always, intend to keep the future in mind as they pursue the present, but the bottom line is that they know their prospects well and make sure they don’t trade the wrong ones.
Pinpointing this isn’t easy, as two years ago no one would have dared part with Nate Pearson, while now, with the right-hander’s injuries and bad luck, it’s a different story.
Getting a deal done without sacrificing their best pieces is the challenge and perhaps the reason nothing has happened yet. But there is a risk of overemphasizing future potential at the expense of current impact.
The bullpen is an obvious area of need, and the Blue Jays could also use starting depth. They are believed to like David Robertson’s combination of experience and other things, and as a hire he fits their comfort zone. Getting him away from the Chicago Cubs is the challenge.
A tougher matchup is with the Detroit Tigers, and speculation on their side has been that some of their players will switch to the Blue Jays side this weekend.
Their motivation is clear, concluding that what they did this year didn’t work, and if nothing changes, well, nothing changes. At the same time, though, unlike rental right fielder Michael Fulmer, who is on the Blue Jays’ radar, dealing relievers with extended periods of contract control like Joe Jimenez, Gregory Soto, Alex Lange or Will West could have them looking deputies the way.
This recent description of trade talks by Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black reflects the dilemma facing the Tigers: “Hey, you’ve got a Range Rover. We’ll take your Range Rover and give you our Honda Accord. And teams expect you to do that,” Black said. “Why do we do this? “How could you not trade in your Range Rover?” Because we might try to keep our Range Rover instead of trading it in for your Subaru.
More importantly, for the Blue Jays to get anything more than a rental, they’ll need to target the other side. Did the Luis Castillo deal create such a severe inflationary effect that they won’t pay current prices? Are they just waiting to see who blinks first to get the deal they want?
All the Blue Jays players can do is wait and see what happens.
Springer remembers the deadline adds the Astros made regularly and the boost they provided.
“They’re huge,” he says. “Whoever is added, whoever, I’m sure we’ve either crossed paths as a team before or know what they can do. But at the same time, I think every single person in this room is completely satisfied and extremely happy with the guys we have here. This is a playoff team as of now. This is what we believe. Whoever is brought in, whether it’s now or not, we’ll embrace it and keep the same mentality.”
In case nothing happens, that’s the right thing to say, but for the front office, it would be the wrong thing.
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