Declassified intelligence indicates that the Ottawa Police Service (OPS) may have hampered its own ability to contain the Freedom Convoy by relying on its own analysis while rejecting critical threat assessments from outside agencies.
Intelligence reports from both OPS and the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP), which vary widely in tone, were analyzed earlier this week in the federal inquiry into the use of the Emergency Act.
In January, OPS investigators characterized the Freedom Convoy protest as “organic” and “middle-class,” while the OPP highlighted a movement that is galvanizing behind “vehemently anti-government” leaders who promote intimidation and harassment tactics.
The OPS operational plan, which was implemented on Friday, January 28, assumed that truck drivers would walk out after the weekend. Instead, the convoy ensnared the capital in diesel fumes and chaos for more than three weeks.
Acting Deputy Chief Steve Bell was in charge of gathering intelligence as the convoy entered the capital. Earlier this week at the Public Order Emergencies Commission, Bell testified that intelligence he had received indicated the protesters would be “legitimate”.
“They were people moving around the country, determined to be heard, but they were peaceful,” Bell testified. “They indicated that their intention was to be peaceful when they arrived here.”
THE INTERNAL REPORT
A report from the OPS Security Intelligence Unit dated Jan. 25 and compiled by Sgt. Chris Kiez said the convoy was “less a professional protest with the usual sad punters, and more a really organic grassroots event that’s gaining momentum.”
The report predicts large crowds and says protesters have access to a growing fund to pay for food, lodging, fuel and legal costs.
Kiez wrote that at the time of writing, “there is no critical information suggesting any violent acts or fears of violence.”
University of Ottawa professor Michael Kempa studies policing and says interpreting the protesters as disgruntled typical Canadians has created a blind spot for OPS.
“This type of bias greatly underestimated the threat to public safety that was coming, led by a very committed core of organizers — some of whom had bad intentions and were missed by the police,” Kempa said.
Former national security analyst Stephanie Carvin called the report “unprofessional.” Threat assessments must be factual and convey the degree of reliability of the intelligence, which the OPS report did not, Carwin said. She found it shocking that information about “larger crowds and longer than planned outages” was lifted verbatim from a column by political pundit Rex Murphy.
“Threat assessments are not threat assessments. These are strange editorial positions,” says Carvin, who now teaches at Carleton University.
“This guy (Kiez) is effectively saying, look, these are middle-class white people, they’re not going to participate in the demonstrations that we’ve seen with Black Lives Matter or local protesters.”
Under the heading “Individuals and/or groups potentially posing a threat during the convoy,” Keyes stressed that the RCMP still consider the Islamic State (ISIS) a threat.
Queen’s University researcher Amarnath Amarasingham says this could indicate that the 2014 lone wolf attack by Michael Zehoff-Bibeau on Parliament Hill that killed Cpl. Nathan Cirillo still plays a big role in OPS risk ratings. However, the more recent case of Cory Hearn, who burst through the gates of Rideau Hall in the summer of 2020 with several loaded rifles in an attempt to arrest the prime minister due to COVID-19 restrictions, was not mentioned in the Ottawa report.
“They missed the organizational aspects of the convoy, which were well-known far-right actors from the beginning that the OPP had an eye on. The OPS either deliberately ignored it or did not have the (intelligence) resources to see it,” Amarasingam said.
OPP ANALYSIS AND WARNINGS
According to confidential emails entered as evidence at the Public Order Emergencies Commission, the OPP provided Ottawa police with 26 strategic intelligence reports about the convoy and its organizers. The so-called Hendon reports focused on “criminal extremism” linked to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The OPP’s first intelligence report on the convoy was sent on January 13 and warned:
- Mass protest mobilizes for Ottawa;
- leaders had anti-government sentiments;
- their goal was to roll back the COVID-19 mandates;
- there was no credible intelligence to suggest an armed rebellion; and
- participants had a “desire” to go beyond what was peaceful and legal.
On January 20, Hendon’s report highlighted actors advocating the disruption of supply routes by blocking highways and forcing the closure of parliament, provincial and municipal buildings. Analysts wrote there that “there still does not appear to be an exit strategy for Ottawa until all the mandates and restrictions related to COVID-19 are lifted.”
As the trucks rolled across the country, the amount of alarming information grew in OPP messages. The January 27 threat assessment includes:
- report by convoy supporter advocating “civil war”;
- that guns were seized from a protester in Quebec, but no charges were laid;
- had the potential for a “real threat to public safety and employee safety”;
- organizers are unlikely to control external elements; and
- the presence of heavy equipment can be used for “long-term occupation”.
Bell testified Monday that Hendon’s Jan. 27 report was the first OPP intelligence analysis he had read on the convoy. The first tractor-trailers would arrive in Ottawa the next day.
In an attempt to divert traffic away from residential areas, police ordered protesters to park on Wellington Street next to the Parliament Hill gates. But the sheer number of HGVs will spread far beyond the parliamentary district, affecting the lives of more than 15,000 residents. The vehicles would block dozens of blocks, obstructing emergency vehicles and buses and subjecting residents to a constant barrage of blaring horns.
In his testimony, Bell said Ottawa police have extensive experience dealing with large demonstrations, but stressed this was the first time a protest had been reinforced by large facilities.
“Nobody had the experience to deal with a patriotic demonstration in terms of a large-scale demonstration — we were the first,” Bell said, returning to the oft-repeated “unprecedented” refrain of other Ottawa police officers appearing at the hearing.
Chris Diana, the lawyer representing the OPP, responded: “I would say to you that your planning was based more on what you thought was going to happen, based on your experience, more than the intelligence that you had.”
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