Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Jolie attends a press conference with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington on September 30, 2022. Jacqueline Martin/Associated Press
Ottawa’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy will call out China as an increasingly disruptive global power, in a reversal of the government’s previous policy of avoiding confrontation with the world’s second-largest economy.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Melanie Joly will outline the broad themes of the government’s new strategy in a major speech to be delivered in Toronto on Wednesday at the Asia Pacific Foundation and the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. An advance copy of the speech was made available exclusively to The Globe and Mail.
In the text, Ms. Jolie says Canada must continue to trade with an autocratic and increasingly assertive China because of the sheer size of its economy. But, she says, Ottawa must be alert to the risks of deepening ties with a country that ignores basic human rights, ignores trade and investment rules and does not share Canadian values.
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The speech lays out a road map for Canada to diversify trade and deepen relations with India and other nations in the region.
This is a significant change from the government’s previous approach to China. In the past, Ottawa has been reluctant to criticize Beijing in the interest of promoting economic and trade ties.
“China’s rise as a global player is changing the strategic outlook of every country in the region, including Canada,” Ms. Jolie said in the speech.
“It seeks to shape the global environment into one that is more permissive of interests and values that increasingly diverge from our own.”
She adds: “The China of 1970 is not the China of today. China is an increasingly disruptive global force.”
The government has been quietly formulating its Indo-Pacific strategy since 2020. An early version drafted by global affairs bureaucrats last summer did not mention China. But Ms. Jolly overruled her department and took a hands-on role in writing the strategy, according to a source with direct knowledge. The Globe and Mail did not name the source because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
“Our approach to China will be outlined in the strategy. Because we can’t have an Indo-Pacific strategy without that,” Ms Joly said in her speech.
She also says Ottawa will be vocal about China’s brutal treatment of Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities in the Xinjiang region, “where credible reports of human rights abuses and crimes against humanity are well documented.”
Canada will also continue to speak out about the crackdown on freedom of speech and media in Hong Kong, oppose escalating Chinese military action against Taiwan and seek to “deepen our economic ties” with the self-ruled island, the speech said . The idea of Canada pursuing stronger economic relations with Taipei is bound to be condemned by Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of China.
At the same time, the speech said, Canada will cooperate with China in the fight against climate change. It is noted that the government is hosting in Montreal next month the United Nations Conference on Biodiversity, which is under the chairmanship of China.
Ms. Jolie’s speech said Canada would add analysts in foreign missions to help Ottawa better read China.
“Key embassies in our network will have dedicated experts to deepen our understanding of the challenges China poses and the opportunities it presents,” says Ms Joly.
It also warns Canadian companies that doing business in China is at their own risk.
“What I would like to say to Canadians doing business in and with China: you have to keep your eyes open,” says the minister. “The decisions you make are your own. I will always respect your independence.
Earlier this month, Ottawa launched a crackdown on Chinese investment in Canada’s critical minerals sector, ordering three of China’s state-controlled companies to sell their stakes in Canadian lithium miners.
Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne cited national security and the need to protect supply chains when announcing the order. He is one of two senior ministers who have said Canada should cut trade with Beijing and other authoritarian states.
Mr. Champagne told an audience in Washington in October that Canada wanted “separation, certainly from China and I would say other regimes in the world that don’t share the same values.”
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, also in October, said Canada should embrace “supporting friends,” ending dependence on authoritarian states like China for vital goods and standing up for other democracies harassed by Beijing.
In her speech, Ms. Jolie noted that the Indo-Pacific region, which stretches from North America to the west coast of India, is home to 60 percent of the world’s population and accounts for 60 percent of global gross domestic product. About 60 percent of the world’s maritime trade passes through its oceans, a third of that through the South China Sea, where Beijing has huge territorial claims.
“Put plainly: the decisions made in the region will affect the lives of Canadians for generations,” she says.
Canadian firms are being urged to focus on the Asian powerhouses of Japan and South Korea, as well as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. Ms. Jolie’s speech underscored the importance of India, whose economy is expected to grow from $2.5 trillion a year to $5 trillion over the next decade.
“As India becomes the world’s most populous country, its leadership and influence will continue to grow,” says Ms. Jolly. “India is looking to expand trade relations in energy, food processing and technology – all areas of Canadian strength.”
The Indo-Pacific policy document is expected to be unveiled during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ms Jolie’s trips later this month to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Cambodia, the summit of the G20 in Indonesia and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting of economic leaders in Thailand.
After the 2018 arrest of Meng Wanzhou, a senior executive at Chinese tech company Huawei, China jailed Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig. The episode, which was resolved after the United States withdrew its extradition request for Ms. Meng and China released Mr. Spavor and Mr. Kovrig, brought relations between Ottawa and Beijing to their worst point since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989
Many of Canada’s key allies, including other G7 countries, have already formulated their own Indo-Pacific strategies. US policy says that China is using all its economic, military, technological and diplomatic might to become the dominant player in the region.
The Indo-Pacific idea is a strategic shift first championed by Japan and embraced by Australia and the US. The concept aims to build common cause between India and its neighbors, who have growing middle-class populations and a shared interest in countering China’s growing influence in the region, and who also fear Beijing’s militarization of the South China Sea and other ocean trade routes .
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