The final game of Super Wild Card Weekend pits the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys.
These two teams met in Week 1 when Tampa beat Dallas 19-3 in one of the most embarrassing games of the season for the Cowboys – a game that ended with Dak Prescott’s broken thumb looking like it could end the Cowboys ‘ chances of even getting to where they are now. We know what happened next: Dallas’ defense and Cooper Rush stepped up and saved the season, then Prescott came back and took the offense to another level while the defense went backwards. The Cowboys now enter the rematch as a road favorite.
The Buccaneers were certainly one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this season, finishing the year with an 8-9 record and entering the postseason only thanks to playing in arguably the worst division in the league. Still, none of that matters what you get in the tournament. Now they have an opportunity to play a home game and make up for what they couldn’t do in the regular season.
So which of these two teams will advance to face the 49ers next weekend? We’ll find out soon. Before we break down the match, here’s how you can watch the match.
How to watch
Date: Monday, January 9 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa) TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (Try Free) Follow: CBS Sports App Odds: Cowboys -2.5, O/U 45.5 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Cowboys have the ball
Look at the overall numbers, and the Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL this season despite their starting quarterback missing a third of the year. They finished 11th in total yards and fourth in points, as well as seventh in Tru Media’s EPA version of the game. Narrow it down to just the games after Dak Prescott returned from injury and the Cowboys effectively tied the Bills for second in EPA per game.
But there’s still something about their offense that leaves one cold. They can go through stretches where they look pretty bad and struggle to get the ball to their most explosive playmakers. That happened in their playoff loss to the 49ers last season, when Tony Pollard had just six touches and CeeDee Lamb was targeted five times, compared to 13 touches (for 35 yards) for Ezekiel Elliott and a combined 18 touches for the likes of Dalton Schultz and Cedric Wilson. The Cowboys limped to 307 total yards and 17 points and were sent home early in embarrassing fashion.
This season, they’ve pretty much avoided these types of games…except for the season-booking with them against the Buccaneers in Week 1 and the Commanders in Week 18. Those were perhaps the two worst games of Prescott’s entire career (from EPA on dropback , they were sixth and fourth worst, according to Tru Media), as he combined to complete just 28 of 66 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Lamb had 7 catches for 81 yards and a score of 18 targets in those two games, while Pollard had 15 touches for 41 total yards.
Simply put, none of this can happen if the Cowboys have any hope of winning this game on the road. They should be the team that leads the league in scoring between Prescott’s return in Week 7 and Week 17, scoring at least 27 points in all but one game despite averaging 1.6 turnovers per contest. The offensive line’s slump in the second half of the season (and Tyron Smith’s relative difficulty returning to right after a Hall of Fame career at left) led to a decline in rushing efficiency, and Prescott’s newfound aggression had its upside (more explosive plays). and disadvantages (more choices).
The way Dallas can win this game is by centering an offense around their explosive players. Matriculating the ball down the field all game in Tampa’s hands. Mike McCarthy, Kellen Moore, and Co. they should avoid the temptation to rely on what’s familiar and safe (Zeke runs on first-and-10, Schultz checks over the middle, etc.) and instead try to push the advantage they have in this contest.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
The Buccaneers offense this season doesn’t look much like what we saw in the first two years of the Tom Brady era. In 2020 and 2021, Tampa registered seventh and second in total yards, third and second in total points, third and first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and fifth and third in Tru Media’s EPA version of the game. This season, the Buccaneers ranked 15th in yards, 25th in points, 16th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA per game.
The issues along the offensive line — Ali Marpet’s retirement, Ryan Jensen’s knee injury, Alex Capa’s loss in free agency, Tristan Werfs’ injuries, Donovan Smith’s precipitous decline — have been evident for most of the season, and they’ve taken a toll of every aspect of the crime.
The doubleheader was a near disaster for the entire season. Tampa ranked 30th in rushing offense DVOA and only two NFL teams averaged fewer yards before contact per carry (1.16), according to Tru Media. Dallas’ defense actually finished the season ranked fifth in rushing defense DVOA, but the Bucs ran over them when these two teams met in Week 1, with Leonard Fournette turning his 21 carries into 127 yards. (Fournette then averaged 3.2 yards per carry the rest of the season. His 127 yards against Dallas accounted for 19 percent of his total rushing yards for the entire year.)
Tampa has also been unable to get the ball down the field in the passing game for most of the season. After Tom Brady averaged 9.06 yards per attempt in 2020 and 8.07 per attempt last season, he averaged just 6.83 yards in the air this season, according to Tru Media. Just 1.0.4% of his passes went at least 20 yards downfield, a sharp drop from Tampa’s Super Bowl season-high 15.4%. The only time it really looked like the Bucs might get the ball downfield was two weeks ago against the Panthers when Brady and Mike Evans repeatedly torched poor C.J. Henderson, who gave up 7 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns when he was in coverage against Evans.
The Cowboys have been very vulnerable to passing downs in recent weeks, but mostly teams have been targeting whichever cornerback is lined up against Trevon Diggs. (If the two games between these two teams over the past two seasons are any indication, Diggs will eclipse Evans. In those two games, Evans has a combined 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.) With Anthony Brown lost for the season, Dallas has tried with Kelvin Joseph, Nahshon Wright, Mackenzie Alexander and Trevon Mullen and none of them worked. Xavier Rhodes has been getting work at that spot during practice and could get his first opportunity Monday night. Brady should be ready to work this matchup with Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, Julio Jones or whoever is opposite Rhodes (or whatever corner the Cowboys throw out there).
The way Dallas can mitigate all of this is by reinventing their pass rush, which has been missing all season. After recording multiple sacks in each of the first 12 games of the season, Dallas has two sackless games in its last five and just six total sacks in those five contests. Before that, the Cowboys averaged 4 per game. (Interestingly, the Cowboys still consistently got pressure during that stretch; they just couldn’t turn that pressure into sacks.) Unless Micah Parsons, DeMarque Lawrence, Dorrance Armstrong, Sam Williams and Dante Fowler dominate the game up front , it may be difficult for Dallas to handle things on the back end.
Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 26
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