DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — This time four years ago, at least a dozen Democratic presidential candidates eager to make their case against Donald Trump had visited Iowa or announced plans to visit the swing state soon ahead of the 2020 election. .
The campaign landscape in Iowa is markedly different this year, with the Republican field appearing frozen since Trump’s early announcement to campaign in 2024. So far, only former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has visited this year, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is making plans to visit in the next few weeks.
Even Trump, the only declared candidate in the 2024 race right now, was absent from Iowa, choosing instead to kick off his campaign last weekend in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two other early voting states.
With Iowa’s first GOP caucus just a year away, the field of would-be White House candidates has largely been content to steer clear of bone-chilling Iowa — and, perhaps more importantly, avoid being the first candidate to announce a bid against the former president.
“No one wants to take on Trump alone,” said Alan Ostergren, a Republican attorney in Des Moines who is involved in GOP politics. “They will all break at some point. But nobody wants to go first.
For now, the calm in Iowa is giving other candidates time to weigh in on campaigns — including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, all of whom campaigned in Iowa last year for GOP candidates. talk to potential donors, promote their new books, and gather the courage to stand up to Trump.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the GOP presidential front-runner coming off a landslide re-election victory, is not expected to make any moves until 2024 until the spring after the Florida Legislature adjourns and he completes a national tour with books.
As a warning to other potential competitors, Trump and his team have lashed out at would-be rivals. The former president called DeSantis “Ron DeSanctimonious” and said challenging DeSantis for the 2024 GOP nomination would be “a great act of disloyalty.”
Trump’s universal name recognition allows him to stay out of Iowa for now, GOP operatives say, as his team charts a strategy that is expected to be more orchestrated than his no-nonsense 2016 campaign that led to a second place in the batches in the state.
Although he remains very popular in the core of the Republican Party, Trump faces a number of investigations that could complicate his third bid for the White House. These include a criminal investigation into top-secret documents found at his Florida mansion, an investigation in Washington into his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, an investigation in Georgia into his efforts to remain in office after his re-election, and more probes in New York.
“He’s not seen as someone who should automatically get the nomination. He’s no longer in office and it’s been two years,” said Steve Scheffler, a member of the Iowa Republican National Committee, who pledged to remain publicly neutral. “Even though the base loves him and his politics, he may have to do more than what others have to do.” I definitely think he’s more vulnerable.”
So far, Trump is the only 2024 Republican with a paid presence in Iowa. Alex Latcham, a former regional policy director for the Iowa Republican Party, now works for Trump’s national team but still lives in Iowa. He helped hire Trump’s Iowa campaign director.
Unlike four years ago, when then-California Sen. Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and then-South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, among others, were visiting Iowa, Democrats this year are the side of Expectations are that President Joe Biden will run for a second term. In any case, the Democratic National Committee is expected to strip Iowa of its early voting status for the 2024 presidential nominating calendar, although Republicans plan to keep Iowa as their first ballot state.
Despite the relative calm in Iowa so far this year, potential Republican candidates are still finding ways to make their way to GOP activists in the state without setting foot there.
At the GOP legislative breakfast on Jan. 9, lawmakers and party officials flipped through a printed program that included full-page ads from Trump, Pompeo and Scott.
That’s in addition to the tens of thousands of dollars they and others, including Haley and Pence, have contributed to Iowa Republican candidates from their political organizations to fundraise for their 2022 midterm campaigns.
Without ever setting foot in Iowa, DeSantis also worked to instill goodwill last year with Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds by inviting her to meet in Florida.
Several presidential hopefuls are expected to attend an annual spring fundraiser for the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, a Christian conservative group, on April 22.
Hutchinson, the only 2024 GOP candidate to visit Iowa this year, made a low-profile visit to Iowa earlier this month, holding private meetings and speaking at a GOP state legislative breakfast. Scott is scheduled to speak at the Polk County Republican Party’s annual fundraising dinner on Feb. 22.
Gloria Mazza, chairwoman of the Polk County Republican Party, said it was only a matter of time before the behind-the-scenes maneuvers of Trump’s potential GOP rivals came to light.
“It will pop up, but it’s hard to say when. It’s like a game of chess,” Mazza said. “Who will make the first move against him?”
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