WASHINGTON — The Ukrainians say they need faster deliveries of long-range artillery and other sophisticated weapons to stop Russia’s steady advance. The United States and Europeans insist there is more, but are wary of sending too much equipment before Ukrainian soldiers can be trained. The Pentagon is concerned about potentially running out of supplies in the coming months.
The Biden administration and its allies are struggling to balance their priorities against Kyiv’s demands as Russian forces step up their bombardment of towns and villages in eastern Ukraine, according to US and other Western diplomats, military officials and lawmakers.
U.S. officials say Ukraine can counterattack and regain some, though not all, of the territory it has lost if it can continue to inflict bloody casualties on Russia until new weapons flow from the West. But some officials are concerned that pulling too many Ukrainian artillery specialists from the front lines for weeks of training on the new weapons could weaken Ukrainian defenses, accelerate Russian gains and make possible future counterattacks more difficult to carry out.
“There is no good choice in a situation like this,” said Sen. Jack Reid, Democrat of Rhode Island, who heads the Armed Services Committee. “You have to take your best artillery officers and personnel and send them back for a week or two of training. But in the long run, I think it’s probably the smarter move.”
In addition, Pentagon officials have expressed concern about harming U.S. combat readiness if the war drags on for months or longer. After two decades of primarily supporting counterterrorism missions, the U.S. defense industry has largely stopped producing the kinds of weapons Ukraine will need to survive a long war of attrition. The United States has authorized $54 billion in military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and sent over $7 billion in weapons taken from existing Pentagon stockpiles.
Ukraine’s urgent requests come at a time when the United States appears to have reached a peak in the type of sophisticated weapons it provides. Subsequent deliveries will include truck-mounted, multiple rocket launchers called HIMARS, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Excalibur precision howitzer rounds. But fighter jets and advanced armed drones on Ukraine’s wish list have so far been dismissed as either too provocative for Moscow or too time-consuming for Ukrainians to learn how to use them.
The nearly five-month-old war is at a critical juncture, say U.S. officials and others familiar with the intelligence assessments. About 100 to 200 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed every day since Russia shifted its military campaign in the spring to focus on eastern Ukraine. But in total, about 20,000 Russians were killed. Wounds took another 60,000 or so from the battlefield. Nearly a third of Russian equipment has been destroyed in the war, according to Western officials, including several who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
To replenish its military, Russia would need to mobilize more of its population by declaring war – officially the conflict remains a “special military operation” – or by moving troops and equipment from Russia’s Far North or Far East to Ukraine.
That President Vladimir V. Putin is reluctant to take either action is a sign that he believes time is on his side, officials say. Instead, the Kremlin is trying to fill its labor shortage with a motley mix of Ukrainians from separatist territories, mercenaries and paramilitary National Guard units, and by promising large cash bonuses for volunteers.
Mr. Putin may also think that Western support for Ukraine will soon reach its limits as Americans and Europeans grow increasingly concerned about energy prices, which have soared since the war began.
One sign of Mr. Putin’s current approach, according to people briefed on the campaign assessments, is that the Kremlin is no longer pushing for quick battlefield gains, as it did in an early push to capture Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. In recent weeks, Mr. Putin has reshuffled his top commanders on the battlefield in Ukraine, and U.S. officials say the Russians have shifted to a slow, intrepid tactic that the Kremlin seems content to let play out.
The Russian military relies heavily on its huge advantage in long-range artillery in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, shelling Ukrainian soldiers – as well as cities – from a distance before trying to enter.
Updated
July 12, 2022, 10:45 a.m. ET
In recent days, some Russian forces have reportedly taken a strategic pause, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, while others have begun shelling towns in Donetsk, a territory in the Donbass.
Many of those Russian troops have been delayed in rearming and reorganizing after brutal artillery firefights in the Luhansk part of the Donbass, as the Kremlin struggles to fill manpower shortages to continue the war.
“The Russians are literally scraping the bottom of the barrel for troops and spare equipment,” said Frederick B. Hodges, a former top U.S. military commander in Europe who now works at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
U.S. officials say it will be difficult for Ukraine to mount a counteroffensive in the near future, but there are still advantages. During the war, combat was largely in favor of the defenders, who could inflict heavy casualties from well-defended positions. The Ukrainians have used advanced American and European weapons, including HIMARS and anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin and NLAW, with deadly effectiveness against the Russians. But Russia’s superior firepower allowed its devastated forces to push forward.
The key to Ukrainian survival and further delaying Russian advances will be additional Western training and equipment.
The first group of Ukrainian soldiers arrived in Britain last week to attend a new program that officials there say will eventually train 10,000 Ukrainian recruits in weapons, patrol tactics, first aid and other skills, Britain’s defense minister said recently Ben Wallace.
“The UK’s response to evolving Ukrainian requirements includes both the equipment needed to mount and maintain an effective response to Russian aggression and the training needed to use the relevant capabilities,” said Air Vice-Marshal Mick Smith, British Defense Attaché in Washington.
US intelligence agencies are struggling to gauge how quickly Ukrainian forces can absorb and use sophisticated US equipment. HIMARS — for High Mobility Artillery Missile System — is the centerpiece of a number of new long-range Western weapons that Ukraine’s military is transitioning to as its arsenal of Soviet-era howitzers and rocket munitions dwindles.
The truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers fire satellite-guided missiles that have a range of more than 40 miles, greater than anything Ukraine has ever possessed. The first two batches destroyed Russian ammunition depots, air defenses and command posts deep behind the front lines, US and Ukrainian officials said.
“HIMARS have already made a HUGE difference on the battlefield,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in a tweet over the weekend.
The White House said Friday it would send four more HIMARS from the Pentagon’s stockpile, joining the eight already in place in Ukraine with their American-trained crews of about 100 Ukrainian soldiers. Administration officials personally indicate that more will be sent. Britain and Germany committed to supply three such launch vehicles each.
However, Ukrainian officials say they need about 300 missile launchers to fight Russia, and some former Pentagon officials say at least 60 to 100 of the missile launchers are needed to disrupt the Russian offensive.
A report published last week by the Royal United Services Institute, a research organization in London, warned that the well-intentioned delivery of various artillery systems to Ukraine was creating unintended consequences.
“The current approach, where each country donates a battery of guns piecemeal, is quickly becoming a logistical nightmare for Ukrainian forces, with each battery requiring a separate training, maintenance and logistics pipeline,” the report said.
The report’s authors, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, also concluded that Ukraine needs electronic warfare equipment, such as jamming devices, to combat advanced Russian systems. Ukrainian surveillance drones that help target Russian troops only survived about a week before Russian defenses forced them to crash or shoot them down, the report said.
“Ukraine has the will to achieve an operational defeat of the Russian army,” the report said. “Right now, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses lead to a conflict of attrition that risks a protracted war, ultimately in Russia’s favor.”
John Ismay contributed reporting.
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