There will be at least 15,000 cases of viruses jumping between species over the next 50 years, and the climate crisis will help fuel a “potentially devastating” spread of disease that will endanger animals and humans and risk further pandemics. researchers.
As the planet heats up, many animal species will be forced to relocate to new areas to find suitable conditions. They will bring their parasites and pathogens with them, which will cause them to spread among species that have not interacted before. This will increase the risk of what is called ‘zoonotic spread’, in which viruses are transmitted from animals to humans, potentially causing another Pavid-19 pandemic.
“As the world changes, so will the face of the disease,” said Gregory Albury, an expert on disease ecology at Georgetown University and co-author of an article in Nature. “This work provides more indisputable evidence that the coming decades will not only be hotter, but also sicker.
“We have demonstrated a new and potentially devastating disease mechanism that could threaten animal health in the future and is likely to have consequences for us as well.”
Albury said climate change was “shaking ecosystems to the core” and causing interactions between species that are already likely to spread viruses. He said even drastic action to tackle global warming now would not be enough to stop the risk of spillovers.
“This is happening, it is not preventable even in the best case scenario of climate change, and we need to put in place measures to build health infrastructure to protect animal and human populations,” he said.
The research paper states that at least 10,000 species of viruses capable of infecting humans are circulating “quietly” in wildlife populations. Until relatively recently, such cross-infections were uncommon, but as more habitats were destroyed for agriculture and urban expansion, more people came into contact with infected animals.
Climate change exacerbates this problem by helping the circulation of diseases between species that have not previously encountered each other. The study predicts changes in the geographical range of 3,139 mammal species due to climate change and land use by 2070 and found that even with relatively low levels of global warming, there will be at least 15,000 events of interspecific transmission of one or more viruses during this time.
Bats will account for most of the spread of this disease due to their ability to travel long distances. An infected bat in Wuhan, China, is thought to have triggered the Covid pandemic, and previous studies have estimated that about 3,200 coronavirus strains are already moving among bat populations.
A new study warns that the risk of climate-related diseases is not in the future. “Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and maintaining warming below 2C for a century will not reduce future virus sharing,” the document said.
Much of the risk of the disease is focused on high-altitude areas in Africa and Asia, although the lack of monitoring will make it difficult to monitor the development of some viruses. “There is this monumental and mostly unnoticed change that is happening in ecosystems,” said Colin Carlson, another co-author of the study.
“We are not keeping an eye on them and this makes the pandemic a risk for every problem. Climate change is creating countless hotspots for the risk of zoonoses right in our backyard. We need to build health systems that are ready for that. “
Experts not involved in the study said the study highlights the urgent need to improve processes designed to prevent future pandemics, as well as to phase out fossil fuels that are causing the climate crisis.
“The findings underscore that we absolutely need to prevent the spread of pathogens,” said Aaron Bernstein, acting director of the Center for Climate, Health and Global Environment at Harvard University.
“Vaccines, drugs and tests are essential, but without major investments in primary pandemic prevention, namely habitat protection, strict regulation of wildlife trade and improved livestock biosecurity, examples we will find in the world.” in which only the rich are able to endure. more likely outbreaks of infectious diseases. “
Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, a non-profit organization working on pandemic prevention, said that while human intervention in the landscape has been seen as a risk of disease for some time, the new study is a “critical step” in understanding it. how climate change will stimulate the spread of viruses.
“Even more worrying is that we may already be in the process – something I didn’t expect and a real wake-up call for public health,” he said. “In fact, if you think about the likely effects of climate change, if pandemic diseases are one of them, we’re talking trillions of dollars of potential impact.
“This hidden cost of climate change has finally been highlighted and the vision that this document shows us is a very ugly future for wildlife and people.
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