The decision by Sen. Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) to move forward with a reconciliation agreement that does not include climate change risks dooming the entire world to a warmer future, scientists, Democrats and advocates said Friday in response to the news .
Democratic senators have been negotiating with Manchin for about a year to try to get him to make investments that would dramatically reduce the U.S.’s contribution to climate change.
But on Friday, Manchin said he was not interested in immediately moving forward with a deal that included those investments.
Manchin told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval that the latest inflation numbers mean it’s “not wise” to make investments in climate change or raise taxes on the wealthy.
Manchin, relaying a discussion he had telling Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) of his decision, suggested he might be able to agree to a deal at a later date.
“I said, ‘Chuck, can we just wait until the July inflation data comes out?'” he said. “I want climate. I want an energy policy.
But those comments rang hollow with climate activists, who noted that he had made similar remarks in the past.
“Joe Manchin is dangling the fate of human survival over our heads like a bone to hungry dogs, and it’s really quite frightening,” John Paul Mejia, national spokesman for the Sunrise Movement, told The Hill.
Evergreen Action Executive Director Jamal Raad said in a statement that Manchin should not be considered a bona fide negotiator.
“Senator Manchin has lost all credibility and can no longer be trusted to prioritize the well-being of Americans and the planet over his own profiteering and political position,” Raad said.
Democrats, activists and scientists reacting to the news worry that the failure of Congress to take a meaningful response will send the US into more heat waves, floods, droughts and intense storms.
With Republicans seemingly poised to win back a majority in the House of Representatives this fall, Manchin’s decision felt like a death blow to hopes for climate action with Democrats in the White House and at the helm of both houses of Congress.
“Every ton counts,” said Dan Lashoff, US director of the World Resources Institute, referring to tonnes of carbon emissions.
“Whether this bill passes or not, it has a material impact on total emissions from the US, and that affects the scale of climate change we’re going to face,” he said.
Those who have studied the climate-saving potential of the Democrats’ climate bill agree that not passing it would likely lead to more emissions and a warmer planet.
Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins, who has modeled the potential emissions cuts of the proposed legislation, told The Hill that based on the climate agreement reported so far, it would likely reduce emissions by between 800 million and 1 billion metric tons in 2030. This is the equivalent of taking between 172 million and 215 million cars off the road in one year.
“We are losing two-thirds to three-quarters of the progress we hoped to make by 2030,” he said.
Robbie Orvis, senior director of energy policy design at the Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology think tank, also said the emerging bill could cut emissions by up to 1 billion tons.
“The likelihood of us being able to meet the 2030 goal is much lower now, so I think that means there will certainly be more emissions, and that means higher warming,” Orives said, referring to the president’s goal Biden to cut emissions in half by the end of the decade.
“Any amount we continue to raise the global temperature leads to more extreme storms,” he said, adding that without action “we will continue to exacerbate the impacts of climate change and that will contribute to worsening extreme weather events and … ultimately human suffering and death.”
Biden promised “tough executive action” on climate change in response to Manchin’s move.
But observers say it will be very difficult to achieve the same goals without legislative action.
“Of course there’s probably a way to get there, assuming a whole bunch of things go right and are defensible in court, but it certainly makes it much, much harder,” Orvis said.
Some argued on Friday that the rest of the world may be less inclined to take bold action without US involvement.
“The US is the BIGGEST historical emitter of all time and for that reason occupies a special role. We cannot expect other countries to act meaningfully if we fail,” climate scientist Michael Mann said in an email to The Hill.
Jenkins added that failure to pass the bill is also expected to stifle technological innovation, hindering the global transition to clean energy.
David Victor, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, takes a slightly different view, arguing that a major climate agreement is unlikely from the outset and that at least now the public can move forward with some clarity.
“I think what you’re going to see is a lot more action in the states [and] much more action…sector by sector,” Victor said.
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Most activists reacted angrily to the latest setback, criticizing the West Virginia Democrat as potentially signing a death warrant for meaningful climate action amid a generational conservative court, the likely loss of a Democratic majority in Congress and the possible loss of the White House in 2025.
Raad said the inflation report was a convenient excuse that erased the history of Manchin’s withdrawal from the talks.
“Joe Manchin has been pretending to support certain investments for over a year now, and they’re turning out to be bull,” he told The Hill. “That will now be his lasting legacy – a man who tried to put his own profits and his sense of political position on the planet.”
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