During a pandemic, the rule is that Covid-related hospitalizations tend to increase about two weeks after the cases. Just about two weeks ago, Los Angeles County made its first drastic leap in what was a slow increase in daily cases, but fortunately there was no corresponding jump in hospitalizations.
On April 16, the number of daily new cases in the region rose to 1,510 from the range of 1,100-1,200 the previous week. Since then, the number of cases has increased by about 78%, to 2,335 today. Given the two-week rule, hospitalizations should be increased rapidly.
But over the same period, Covid’s daily hospitalizations increased by only 21 patients, from 228 to 249. This increase is not close to the corresponding jumps seen in past jumps. The hope is that hospitalizations are “separated” from case trends, which means that the two are no longer as causally linked as they used to be.
LACDPH
The county is only on the 2-week limit, so the usual rise can still be seen in the next few days, but the fact that there has been no jump yet is a reassuring sign.
Another encouraging indicator is the suspicion that the number of daily cases significantly underestimates the number of new infections. Many experts suspect that given the proliferation of home tests, there are many more positive results that have not been reported. If there are more cases in the region, this would make the delta separating infections from hospitalizations even wider.
“We are definitely seeing an increase in cases, which is quite significant,” said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer today. “We have started to see a slight increase in hospitalizations. Several things are happening here. We removed some of the safety precautions, and we also had spring break and spring break. I hope that this increase that we are seeing is stabilizing relatively soon, without increasing much.
As for hospitalizations, Ferrer is not yet ready to declare victory.
“Stable levels of hospitalization reflect the usual lag we usually see, as well as the protective effects of vaccination, boosters and therapies, and the natural immunity that some people have acquired. [from previous infections],” she said.
Wild card, says Ferrer, is the new more portable version BA.2.12.1, which for the week ending April 9, accounts for 7% of the analyzed copies. That’s more than 3% a week ago. And given that April 9 was about two weeks ago, that share has certainly risen.
“You have to look at the data across the country,” Ferrer said. “The East Coast is seeing an increase in hospitalizations and we do not know enough about this new option BA.2.12.1. So let’s continue to be careful. Let us continue to be prepared according to what we learn and see. ”
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