In a pattern that has been repeated for more than two years, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in the DC region and across the country, after a short break with some of the lowest levels of pandemic virus spread.
The difference this time is that it is more difficult for many residents to monitor the spread of the virus.
Following the easing of mask mandates and other restrictions earlier this year, local government leaders told residents that those trying to avoid the virus should monitor public health data to assess personal risks. But regional health departments report much less information to the public than they do regularly until this winter. Even health services do not know so much about who tested positive for the virus, because so many people can now be tested at home.
“We ask you to make your own risk decisions, but we are not giving you the tools to do so,” said Neil J. Segal, assistant professor of health policy at the University of Maryland. “The sad reality is that there is no longer a good set of indicators that you can look at to assess your risk today, unlike last week or two weeks ago. What we have done is force people to rely on their intuition. “
Follow-up of coronavirus cases in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia
As of Thursday morning, the seven-day average had risen 54 percent in the county last week, 43 percent in Maryland and 27 percent in Virginia.
These percentages, driven by omicron’s BA.2 sub-option, are far below the stunning loads caused by the earlier version of omicron, which hit the region hard in December and January. But public health experts say they expect BA.2 to continue to boost the increase in cases.
Some local universities, including the American and George Washington, have restored the requirements for masks, which fell away when the first omicron wave subsided. Philadelphia announced this week that the city-wide indoor camouflage mandate will return, raising questions for DC officials about whether their jurisdictions will do the same. So far, none.
American, GW universities are among the newest campuses to restore masks
Montgomery County officials said Wednesday that they were not considering plans to restore the mandate. Interim Health Officer James Bridges said he expects cases to peak and fall in the heavily vaccinated county without causing a significant increase in hospitalizations or deaths, although staff are willing to change course quickly, especially if the incidence rate rises. after schools return from spring break.
“We’re worried,” said Montgomery County Executive Director Mark Elrich (D), “because at some point you can’t just let this thing go unchecked.”
Some government officials have contracted the virus themselves after avoiding it for the first two years.
DC Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) and Kenya council member R. McDuffy (D) caught the virus earlier this month; both said their symptoms were mild. Jeffrey C. McKay (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, called his own symptoms “uncomfortable but manageable.”
When Arlington County Superintendent Matt de Ferranti (D) fell ill, he sent a letter to residents, noting a sharp increase in cases in Arlington and urging people to wear masks and get vaccinated. “We know and I can tell you first hand that you don’t want Covid,” he wrote.
Segal said he called on his neighbors and students to pay attention to such anecdotal evidence of a jump in the cases. “Think about your social circle, the number of people on your network who are currently infected or who have been in the last week,” he said.
Covid cases are on the rise in the north-east as the BA.2 omicron sub-option is needed
The county, like many jurisdictions, no longer announces the number of new cases reported each day, and has also stopped reporting much of the abundant data it publishes on hospitalizations and other indicators. Its website already has a much smaller set of indicators, including the weekly percentage of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. That number has risen every week in the last month, from 51 cases in the week of March 6 to 204 cases in the week of April 3, according to the latest report.
“How does it help me today, two weeks later, knowing what happened in March in the County?” That’s the story, “Segal said. “All I can tell you for sure is that today we are three times worse than at the beginning of the month. But this average number of cases in seven days no longer seems accurate to me, “he added, due to the proliferation of tests at home, which are never reported to the government.
Officials say they still have ways to assess their levels of community transmission. In Montgomery, for example, the health department is asking doctors to report positive test results from patients who use kits at home, and the county is closely monitoring data from places such as schools and nursing homes that regularly perform PCR tests. Outbreaks at these collection points have not increased significantly since this week, said Sean O’Donnell, the county’s emergency preparedness manager.
“We never had the full picture during the pandemic,” O’Donnell told a news briefing on Wednesday. When covid-19 first arrived, he noted that the tests were not readily available. The virus can spread asymptomatically, suggesting that there are large groups of people who carry it and spread it unknowingly. And in late 2021, a cyber attack crippled Maryland’s covid-19 reporting system for weeks.
“There have always been more cases than our data shows,” O’Donnell said. “The question now is how far has it deviated with the very high prevalence of home tests?”
Because people often use PCR testing to confirm test results at home, an increase in PCR test positivity will still signal an increase in community transmission, said Earl Stoddard, the county’s assistant chief administrative officer.
Stoddard added that there are other indicators and forms of monitoring that hint at the frequency of cases, such as the number of students absent from school or the number of workers in the county who call sick.
“People who react to a test result are much more important than us having back test results,” he said.
John Hopkins University professor of public health Crystal Watson said the good news: “Although we know we miss a lot of cases, we don’t see a huge jump in hospitalizations.
Watson noted a number of factors that could cause the current phase, driven by BA.2, to take a different course from the omicron wave of winter.
To find out where the pandemic is going, look at the sewers
On the one hand, omicron has inspired some to be vaccinated or given a booster, which means that people are now more protected. And omicron has infected so many people – some experts estimate that more than half of the US population has caught it – that it has a more natural immunity, although immunity can only expire after 90 days. In addition, Watson noted, warm weather means that people do more activities outside, reducing the risk of getting sick.
But parts of the DC region are located tightened restrictions on coronavirus, including requirements for a vaccine to be eaten in restaurants to combat omicron for the first time. There was no such mobilization in the face of BA.2, which would allow the sub-option to spread more effectively in public places.
“We just don’t have these mitigation measures like we did in the winter,” Watson said. She praised Philadelphia’s proactive revitalization of her mask mandate.
“Personally, I think this is a good way, because then you act preventively, not wait until it gets so bad that it really affects hospitals,” she said.
Watson said Americans are not in an endless cycle of option after option that requires camouflage and social distancing: Increasing immunity over time, especially as more and more people around the world are vaccinated, will reduce the impact of the coronavirus.
But nonetheless, she and Segal said they could always wear masks in certain conditions during the winter flu season to keep from getting sick.
Theo Armus contributed to this report.
Add Comment